RedRamage

Anyone know the actual formula? I played around a bit with it too. 30 for 30, 500 yards, 0 TDs: 118.7... not even close to perfect. You could be zipping the ball all over the place, hitting received on a dime, but the receivers all get tackled just shy of the End Zone so your team runs the ball in. Suddenly your rating drop like a rock. If I increase the TDs to 3 I get to 152...still not a perfect game. Here's another stupid one: My defense keeps getting turn overs giving me great field position. I only need to throw 10 passes to get the win and each pass results in TD, but because we had such amazing field position I only racked up 124 yards pass. 10 for 10, 10 TDs, 124 yards = 157.9. Not a perfect game. What more could I possibly have done as a QB?? So I want to re-iterate @chasfh, while I disagree that individual pitches don't change win probability, I do NOT want to appear like I'm defending the QBR metric or how it defines a "perfect" QB game.

Without trying to sound like I'm defending QBR "perfect game" status, I disagree a bit here. The count that a batter is in changes the probability of getting on base and getting on base changes the probability of scoring a run and the probability of scoring a run changes the win probability. So I think yeah... a ball outside the zone (assuming the batter doesn't swing at it) does chance the win probability. If you want to argue: "As long as the batter is out, what does it matter if the pitcher threw 3 balls or 0 balls?" then I guess I'd counter with: "As long as the team scored, or even just took a bunch of time off the clock so the opposing team isn't able to make a come back, what does it matter if the QB threw an incomplete pass a few times?" If you want to argue: "A ball outside of the zone could be a strategic move to setup the batter, so even a 'bad pitch' might be a good strategy." Then I'd argue the same could be said in football. A deep pass with a lower success rate might be done to setup a defense for a run play or a screen or whatever. A ball thrown away before taking a sack is better move than tacking the sack or throwing a very low completion percentage pass that could be intercepted.

I honestly have no idea what the calculation is used in passer rating and I think it's insane odd that a "perfect" score is 158.3. Having said that, saying the QB was "perfect" is probably akin to saying that a pitcher who allowed no base runners pitched a perfect game. A perfect game for a pitcher might include many pitches that were less than ideal but the hitter was just bad/unlucky or the defense came up with a great play. There's obviously going to be instances where the pass could have been better, but I guess how ever the calculation happens it's determined that the final outcome was optimal, even if there was a mistake here or there.

So you're saying this is Aaron Rodger's fault?

Assuming football is around for the next 20-30 years, I'd say yes we will. I think there's always a lot of shifting in philosophies and strategies and honestly any sport has a lot of copy cats. If you see a team being super successful doing X, lots of teams will copy that. Eventually Pocket Passers will come back in vogue.

The obvious difference being that in baseball you draft ~15 pitchers per year and they spend 3-5 years working their way through the minors and the average fan only really hears or cares about <5 of them who show some promise and they forget about the other 10+ who flamed out. In football you don't load up on 3-5 QBs per year and spend the new few season developing them.

Yep... Campbell is now has the 8th most wins of any Lions head coach with the 6th highest winning percentage (minimum of 10 coaches games)

I read somewhere that Goff's passer ratings are somewhat negatively effected because much of his passing yards are YAC. To quote myself from just above: If true this is an incomplete picture because football is so inter-dependent. If you have great receivers who can tack on massive YAC each game, you don't need to throw as many passes overall. If you have a great offensive scheme that gets you large early leads so you're more conservative with plays later in the game, you don't necessary get as many deep ball chances. Anyone know if there's a place that keeps stats of JUST the yards through the air?

Football is one area where I think stats can very easily paint the wrong picture. Between the short season and the heavy dependence of each facet of the game on the others, it's never as simple as Player A = bigger number than Player B, therefore Player A better. I don't think there's a football fan out there who would argue that Goff is a better runner/scrambler than Mahomes. Why is Mahomes lower then in yards per attempt? Lions OL is better... opposing defenses plan more for Mahomes to run... Mahomes gets sacked more (22 vs. 18)... There are all obvious factors and combined with a sprinkle of random chance of a short season and it's not shocking that Goff might have better ypa running. Now, just to be 100% abundantly clear: I am NOT saying that Mahomes is a better QB than Goff or that I'd prefer Mahomes or that I'm questioning Goff or any other nonsense.

How much you wanna bet Rodgers retires after this year because he doesn't want to be part of a rebuild. He wanted to go to a contender and now the Jets aren't that so...

Lions need to win by at least 5 points on Sunday. If they do that they will have as high a point differential against the AFC South as the rest of the NFC North combined.

True... again, as long as we keep winning there's no issue. But the other problem with the Eagles is that we can zero control over them. For example, let's say we lose of our games between before week 18 and the Vikings win out. We still face them in week 18 and a win gets us the division so obviously the Vikings couldn't leap frog us to the #1 seed. But if we lose a game in the division and the Eagles win out that we don't have the option of playing them to knock 'em down.

The Lions are in complete control of their own destiny right now... just keep winning and the #1 seed is there for the taking. That said I certainly won't mind seeing some other NFC teams lose to give ourselves some cushion. Our biggest threat right now are the Eagles at 8-2. They're in a weak division with the 'Boys and the Giants. They are playing at the LA Rams for the Sunday Night game. This'll be easy to root for Stafford to win here. At 5-5 the Rams are not a real threat. Right behind the Eagles are of course the Vikings at 8-2. I consider the Vikings a lesser threat than the Eagles because we beat them once already and the next game is in our house. Plus is seems to me the Vikings are dropping down a bit. Yes they've won three straight but it was just an 8 pt win at home over the Colts. At Jacksonville won by just 5 and didn't score a TD. At Tennessee they got a solid 10 point win... but the Titans are bad so just 10 points doesn't seem like a convincing win. Vikings face the Bears in Chicago Sunday at 1. Threat #3 on the list is the Packers at 7-3. Packers host the 49ers Sunday at 4:25. Rounding out the rest of the "danger" list imho are: Commanders at 7-4: They host the 'Boy Sunday at 1:00. Falcons at 6-5: Bye this week. Cardinals at 6-4: Traveling to Seattle, 4:25 on Sunday. So, who to root for this week? Rams, Bears, 49ers, _____ , Seahawks (Sorry, I just can't root for the Cowboys right now... even knowing that it would help us.)

In somewhat fairness to the 'Boys... they've had a lot of injury issues. Especially with Prescott out now you can't expect them to be very successful. I imagine that without all the injury problems they'd be twice as good... yeah... 4-6 sounds right.

Apparently there is a name for this effect now: The Honolulu Flu.

I heard those rumors too... but I dunno. Obviously I'm not privy to any back of the house conversations or general knowledge but I feel like the Bears are not a solid organization. I don't think Poles is generally regarded as that great of a GM. Now, obviously "not a solid organization" would be putting it mildly if you were describing the Lions prior to 2020 so yeah, a lot of change in a few years. Maybe Williams is all he cracked up to be and 'Flos is what's keeping him from success. It's not the franchise I would pick to go to.

Wow! An SMR sighting in the football forums! And all Lions fans agree: Being a Jets fan right now is about the worst thing you can be.

I just discovered this sub and holy cow is it good. Of course, it's probably good that I discovered it NOW vs. like 10 years ago. Anyway, if you haven't been there yet, check it out: https://www.reddit.com/r/NFCNorthMemeWar/ And if you find any really good ones, please share them here. Ya know... stuff like:

Hmm... yeah, that's a valid argument. Well, more Rodrigo then? That one tackle yesterday was killer!

It's a major bummer... but it's also the one position where I'm not too bother if we never get him playing this season. We've got arguably the best two safeties in the league right now.

I know that at some point reading stuff like this in other team's Reddit pages will be old news and boring... but after all the decades I'm still 100% in the zone of enjoying the hell out of stuff like this.

It's very hard to say... He certainly doesn't have the same aura as Glenn or Campbell from what we see as fans. I'd be curious what the players say about him.

And I don't think there is anything wrong with that. If Johnson is happy where he is then I'm all for it. I had a similar thing myself earlier in my life where the head of my operation retired some people were wondering if I was going to go for that spot, but I didn't want it. Sure the added pay would've been nice but the skill set that that position needed was NOT my skill set and I would have been unhappy and would have struggled massively in that role. So if that's what Johnson is doing... I'm 100% fine with that. That said, I don't think that's what's going on. I think Ben is waiting for the right situation for him. I think it's possible that he may have said no initially because he wanted more experience, but he's at the top of his game right now. I don't think there's a person around right now that doesn't figure the Lions are the favorite to get to the SB in the NFC (obviously don't mean it will happen, but they are the leaders). He's got nothing more to prove. So if he finds the right situation... the right owner, the right GM, the right roster... I think he'll jump.

I can't see Schwartz and Campbell being compatible unless Schwartz has changed a lot. Don't get me wrong, I think Schwartz has done a good job as a DC and certainly has skills there, but I don't see his style as being on that would mesh with Campbell.