More details on the ratings
https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/notes-on-the-state-of-politics-sept-28-2022/
Earlier this summer, in what was a somewhat surprising dynamic, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee in the state’s closely-watched Senate contest, often polled better than Shapiro (although both were ahead in their respective races). In more recent polling, Shapiro generally seems to be the better-performing Democrat: in a Marist poll released yesterday, Shapiro leads Mastriano 53%-40%, while Fetterman leads his opponent, television doctor Mehmet Oz (R), by a slightly lesser 51%-41% margin. On Monday, a poll from Insider Advantage showed a wider gap: that firm had Fetterman up by just 3, but Shapiro was up by 15.
The higher-stakes nature of the Senate race may be contributing to that movement: with the chamber split 50-50, Senate control could well hinge on the Pennsylvania result, and the parties are spending accordingly. When asked about potential plans to spend in the Pennsylvania gubernatorial race, Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey, who co-chairs the Republican Governors Association, replied “We don’t fund lost causes and we don’t fund landslides.” Reading between the lines, we’d guess that Mastriano’s contest, from the GOP perspective, falls into the former category.
Since Dixon emerged as the GOP nominee, we have seen few indications that she has made headway against Whitmer. According to FiveThirtyEight’s poll database, the only recent survey that showed the race within single-digits was from the GOP-leaning Trafalgar Group. As with Shapiro, ad spending has been heavily slanted in Whitmer’s favor: according to AdImpact, the Whitmer campaign and pro-Democratic groups have outspent conservative forces by more than 8-to-1.