Current polling here indicates the TP candidate within 2-4 points of his opponent. The guy is trying to straddle the fence pushing his Trump endorsement with the faithful. He was probably the least Trumpiest in the rigged nomination process, but is proving to be a Trumpist in GOP clothing.
It doesn’t help that the Dem candidate is about as close to an incumbent as you can come in Va’s gubernatorial setup. Early voting is down from last year which is a bit concerning as well.