CMRivdogs

From what I saw there was an 8 point shift from 2020, 61.5-36.5 Biden. 57-40 Harris.

Screw X

Per Jonathan Alter on X https://x.com/jonathanalter/status/1853949542372192489?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

They're panicking Steven Milker on the dirty bird app

Nm

GOP based pundits are already talking about the 2004 returns where Kerry jumped out to a big lead...something weird is happening https://x.com/brianklaas/status/1853930198586249451?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

https://x.com/timalberta/status/1853798353240269112?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw Tim Alberta this morning I don't think we'll see Oakland Co splits being that large, but one could hope

No drinking tonight unfortunately, wife is having knee replacement surgery tomorrow. At least she can go in tomorrow and have enough pain pills to last a few days. As a former reporter and newsroom manager she'll watch returns before heading to bed. I'll do mindless doomscrolling. In honor of the election I'm wearing my "Madison" T-Shirt quoting part of Federalist 51. "If men were angels no government would be necessary" https://x.com/mluckovichajc/status/1853548033700765961?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

My god, it actually worked for a change today

I don’t see Trump as a guy who would enjoy a pulled pork sandwich at Smithfield BBQ

More Last https://www.threads.net/@jvlast/post/DB9WANjSNI-?xmt=AQGzjAmjokT80v0yFf0c_j8g-TL5Xp3PdqKHnblaklNFvw If Trump is on track to lose, he has moreincentive to declare victory tomorrow night. Work backwards from Trump’s perspective: He needs to keep his supporters bound to him and he wants to continue to own the Republican party.¹ Having spent the previous four years insisting that he won in 2020 and that he cannot lose in 2024 unless he is cheated again, conceding defeat would be taken by his supporters as a personal betrayal. So he can’t do that. Further, he has already primed his supporters to expect a stolen election after they have spent the last year being utterly confident that Trump would win. At the Madison Square Garden rally, Tucker Carlson even hung a number on Harris’s expected vote total, saying that no one should believe that she could get 85 million votes. So if the early results suggest that Harris is headed toward probable victory, I would expect Trump to come out with accusations of fraud and assertions that he won sooner rather than later. Also, Trump has to set a party line early, before any elected Republicans admit that Harris won. If Trump gets out early, then MAGA-loyal politicians will run with it, putting pressure on other Republicans down the line to either support the Big Lie 2.0 or stay silent.

JV Last in today’s Bullwerk We have three outcomes that rise to the level of not-unlikely. Harris wins popular vote by ≈ 2.4 points; Trump wins EC narrowly. Harris wins popular vote by ≈ 3.0 points and also wins EC narrowly. Harris wins popular vote by > 3.2 points and wins a large majority in the EC. We should be able to eliminate one of these possibilities fairly early tomorrow night. We’ll see the breakdowns on women and African-Americans in states that get results quickly. And they will take one of the two outside scenarios off the table. Are we still in coin-flip territory? As a matter of probabilities, I don’t know. But with a one-time outcome, it’s going to feel like 50-50. https://www.threads.net/@jvlast/post/DB9V-nTyuUe?xmt=AQGzf-Kv69Wg0SRpvyCsnpuwi8xHP-aeeGSCNOF0loN6Gw

https://x.com/bill_shea19/status/1853551386610262131?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw Red states do not want federal election monitors because it hampers their expected efforts to claim fraud to help Trump. Quote Missouri SOS Office @MissouriSOS · 6h Ashcroft Sues to Block DOJ Election Interference. #moleg #MOvotes https://sos.mo.gov/default.aspx?PageId=10438

https://x.com/jmart/status/1853457631764983854?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw perhaps the most telling sign of the last 72 hours, even the biggest Democratic worrywarts are sounding optimistic Maybe most striking is the sense that GA or NC could be in reach. Was hard to find Dems two weeks ago who truly thought either was likely I’m starting to become nauseously optimistic

https://x.com/jmart/status/1853478147825480182?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw The sheer volume is the super power... Via @jonathanchait Imagine if we discovered tapes of Jeffrey Epstein calling Joe Biden one of his best friends! It would have destroyed Biden’s candidacy. The Harris campaign and most of Trump’s critics have ignored this for the same reason most of Trump’s offenses have been forgotten: Nobody has enough room in their head to contain them all. nymag.com/intelligencer/…

One observation traveling back roads between Myrtle Beach and Raleigh, the areas with a preponderance of Trump signs also has a lot of unpicked cotton. I have no idea what that signifies

My spouse is scheduled for knee replacement surgery Wednesday. I’m tempted to ask for the same drugs to knock me out for a few hours

Quincy Jones has left us at 91. Just think of the artist he worked with. Frank Sinatra to Michael Jackson, Count Basie and of course the We Are The World production. Thank you for your music

It’s been an ongoing issue recently. Basically hit or miss. Right now it’s in Javy Baez mode.

Maybe Ronz needs to meet these folks https://x.com/bstulberg/status/1853216874684952895?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

Both Biden and Harris needed to be saying this the last several months.

High wind warning later in the game. Best ground game winds