CMRivdogs

My god, it actually worked for a change today

I don’t see Trump as a guy who would enjoy a pulled pork sandwich at Smithfield BBQ

More Last https://www.threads.net/@jvlast/post/DB9WANjSNI-?xmt=AQGzjAmjokT80v0yFf0c_j8g-TL5Xp3PdqKHnblaklNFvw If Trump is on track to lose, he has moreincentive to declare victory tomorrow night. Work backwards from Trump’s perspective: He needs to keep his supporters bound to him and he wants to continue to own the Republican party.¹ Having spent the previous four years insisting that he won in 2020 and that he cannot lose in 2024 unless he is cheated again, conceding defeat would be taken by his supporters as a personal betrayal. So he can’t do that. Further, he has already primed his supporters to expect a stolen election after they have spent the last year being utterly confident that Trump would win. At the Madison Square Garden rally, Tucker Carlson even hung a number on Harris’s expected vote total, saying that no one should believe that she could get 85 million votes. So if the early results suggest that Harris is headed toward probable victory, I would expect Trump to come out with accusations of fraud and assertions that he won sooner rather than later. Also, Trump has to set a party line early, before any elected Republicans admit that Harris won. If Trump gets out early, then MAGA-loyal politicians will run with it, putting pressure on other Republicans down the line to either support the Big Lie 2.0 or stay silent.

JV Last in today’s Bullwerk We have three outcomes that rise to the level of not-unlikely. Harris wins popular vote by ≈ 2.4 points; Trump wins EC narrowly. Harris wins popular vote by ≈ 3.0 points and also wins EC narrowly. Harris wins popular vote by > 3.2 points and wins a large majority in the EC. We should be able to eliminate one of these possibilities fairly early tomorrow night. We’ll see the breakdowns on women and African-Americans in states that get results quickly. And they will take one of the two outside scenarios off the table. Are we still in coin-flip territory? As a matter of probabilities, I don’t know. But with a one-time outcome, it’s going to feel like 50-50. https://www.threads.net/@jvlast/post/DB9V-nTyuUe?xmt=AQGzf-Kv69Wg0SRpvyCsnpuwi8xHP-aeeGSCNOF0loN6Gw

https://x.com/bill_shea19/status/1853551386610262131?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw Red states do not want federal election monitors because it hampers their expected efforts to claim fraud to help Trump. Quote Missouri SOS Office @MissouriSOS · 6h Ashcroft Sues to Block DOJ Election Interference. #moleg #MOvotes https://sos.mo.gov/default.aspx?PageId=10438

https://x.com/jmart/status/1853457631764983854?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw perhaps the most telling sign of the last 72 hours, even the biggest Democratic worrywarts are sounding optimistic Maybe most striking is the sense that GA or NC could be in reach. Was hard to find Dems two weeks ago who truly thought either was likely I’m starting to become nauseously optimistic

https://x.com/jmart/status/1853478147825480182?s=46&t=Hkcls71g8OYK4gqVoqRrnw The sheer volume is the super power... Via @jonathanchait Imagine if we discovered tapes of Jeffrey Epstein calling Joe Biden one of his best friends! It would have destroyed Biden’s candidacy. The Harris campaign and most of Trump’s critics have ignored this for the same reason most of Trump’s offenses have been forgotten: Nobody has enough room in their head to contain them all. nymag.com/intelligencer/…

One observation traveling back roads between Myrtle Beach and Raleigh, the areas with a preponderance of Trump signs also has a lot of unpicked cotton. I have no idea what that signifies

My spouse is scheduled for knee replacement surgery Wednesday. I’m tempted to ask for the same drugs to knock me out for a few hours

Quincy Jones has left us at 91. Just think of the artist he worked with. Frank Sinatra to Michael Jackson, Count Basie and of course the We Are The World production. Thank you for your music

It’s been an ongoing issue recently. Basically hit or miss. Right now it’s in Javy Baez mode.

Maybe Ronz needs to meet these folks https://x.com/bstulberg/status/1853216874684952895?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

Both Biden and Harris needed to be saying this the last several months.

High wind warning later in the game. Best ground game winds

Drawing GB offside on the encroachment call was a huge win. It could have gone the other way

Only the 9th commandment (the one about lying) what about the other nine he's broken

The combination of Vance and Musk may be scarier than Trump. Then the possibility of throwing RFKjr into the mix. Almost enough to throw me off my meds

Burgum is supposedly one of the "saner" ones

https://x.com/mehdirhasan/status/1853180421854372332?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw This is the kind of stuff that the sitting Democratic President & his VP should have been saying every single day since Jan 6th till now. Instead Trump was able to rehabilitate himself over the years while Dems avoided saying much about him and taking some mythical ‘high ground’. Obama on Trump: Who cannot understand how an NBA superstar can be both Greek and Black… Who spreads ridiculous fantasies that Haitians are eating people’s pets. Who just this past week arranged for one of his supporters to tell jokes about Black people eating watermelon and Puerto Rico being an island of garbage right there on stage at Madison Square Garden. Do you that is someone who will look out for you?

But today you could say the same about "freedoms" and some are still not listening

Big Yellow Taxi

https://x.com/ronfilipkowski/status/1853165722848919829?s=61&t=akgNyUltuSb7RN54lulxTw

I guess he does things like repairs and yard work. I think he works in the landscape industry (she's a nurse). He doesn't cook or clean house.

The couple times I've met he seems like a nice guy. Helps out a lot around her and her elderly parents houses. He seems to hold a lot of what I assume are traditional Hispanic values especially around the household duties of men and women. If I disowned family members who disagreed with me politically, family gatherings would be boring. We don't discuss politics but some branches thrive on chaos