A large portion of Northern Virginia are government employees. Many of which are facing the fact that at least one member of the household either has or will probably losing a job. Throw in the edict that requires federal workers to return to the office full time after a large portion opted to move to areas like Richmond, Charlottesville and their suburbs because housing prices are more friendly to those with families.
Throw in those with farms who are seeing subsidies they've counted on for generations threatened to be cut.
I think the state also has its share of "halfbacks" retired folks who left NY, Pa, Ohio and such who found that Florida, Alabama, Georgia and South Carolina were not what they expected are moving into the state as well.
This Falls state election will be interesting, too early to tell and a lot of election fatigue here, but I think there are a significant number of voters who were not thrilled by Youngkin and Earle-Sears is a devout Trumper.