1984Echoes

2PM deadline today.

Not correct. It went from 19 to 20 against in the 3rd vote. If the Fascist Caucus is smart, they would have preplanned this. The next vote goes to 23 against, then 24, then 25... So it looks like McCarthy is losing ground. They can only go up to 31 I think, and that's if Jordan and MTG cut bait and switch over to the Jordan vote... But... we'll see in the next few days what their actual plan is...

I think we'd all love to see this in Congress: Moderate Republicans deciding they are not going to hand government over to insurrectionists and getting moderate Dems on board to vote Upton in as Speaker. There would have to be some negotiating... Would be very interested in those results...

He' supposed to be more moderate than McCarthy, and more willing to work on legislature/ etc. with Dems. I don't know how true that is in reality. I'm certain any speeches he gives are more performative than legislative impact... I just don't know by how much...

The budget is this September. That's what the $1.7 Trill bought: time. I'm not certain when the debt limit comes up. That will certainly be a major push on the Pubs to get their shit together.

Well... The middle has fallen back into line behind him. It's only 19 hardcore Fascists (Trumpists) that are refusing to fall in line. Because he's not Trumpy/ Fascist enough. I think it's true that he's proven himself wishy-washy... We'll see where that gets him.

Yeah, it's way too early for that. It's going to take at least a couple weeks of this dysfunction before the Scalise/ Upton rumors have any chance of gaining legs...

They are doing much more than just playing chicken...

I think it is higher than 19 (around 30 IIRC) but several have chickened out (Jordan, MTG, etc.) and gone over to McCarthy already in this game of chicken...

Yeah I considered that. Pashtun in Pakistan I believe are all in the western mountainous areas all the way down to southwestern Pakistan, I believe west of Karachi, and touching the Indian Ocean... Maybe Pakistan out of the goodness of their hearts would gift some land to the Pashtun, giving them sea access, and good relations with (no more terrorist attacks within) Pakistan. Hah! What a farcical dream. No one would ever go for that. Except the Pashtun that is...

On the boomer/ not boomer spectrum... I was at the very tail end of "boomers", born in 1964. So Vietnam was not a thing for me at all... too young. My political/ military initiation was Nixon's fall (barely on my register), the EPA and the rise in environmentalism, stagflation, the end of Vietnam, Carter's dysfunctional years, and the rise of Reaganism. I was in Fort Bragg when we went to Grenada, however, I was Artillery and we didn't go there, just Airborne went to Grenada (from Fort Bragg... so they took all of our equipment). I did serve near the Korean DMZ for a year and a half latrer on... I hated lots and lots of Reagan policies but, in the end, I had to agree that he was a good president. Still hate lots of his policies. But he turned me from a Liberal Dem to a stout Independent that caucuses mostly with Dems. Since 1990. Or maybe it was 1992.

Iraq - I believe could have been correctly done, but not the Bush-Cheney-Rumsfeld Plan. They F'd it up. Not saying it's an absolute guarantee that a (General) MacArthur Plan would have worked; but it would have put the country in its best position to succeed rather than its worst. I won't give a guarantee, but I absolutely believe that that kind of plan would have worked. Afghanistan - the only thing that would work for the Afghans is to split them up IMO. Not a good option, but the northeastern 25-30% of the country is mostly Tadjik. Split that off (I think Kabul is in that NE 25%, but is more mixed ethnically) and combine it with Tadjikistan and at least that area is stable. The rest of the country is 90% Pashtun. Create a Pashtunistan. The Taliban would rule there. There's no getting around that. But if that's how they (Pashtun) want to live then we would just have to resign ourselves to that scenario. It would still be a problem area and the Pashtuns would decidedly not be happy with that solution... but wall of the area from Pashtun and most of the population could live a normal life. 0% chance this ever would have been considered though...

Looks like they're ready to at least go 1 more round... It's not even 3:30... let's see what kind of stamina they have for this.

That would definitely show the level of Republican incoherence though...

Well the practical would be that Jefferies would hold the Speakership. But the Republicans have the majority so they could at any point in time call for a new vote on Speaker so... Practically speaking, Jefferies would actually be Speaker for less than a day.

2nd round same as the 1st round. The Fascist 19 swung all their votes to Jordan rather than splitting them but it's still 212 Jefferies - 203 McCarthy - 19 Fascists. When do they do the 3rd round...? And how late do they go? Seems they have enough time for at least a few more rounds today...

The obverse would be Jordan breaking ranks and voting for himself on the 3rd... opening up the floodgates from there on... I was thinking that was the 2nd round strategy of nominating Jordan... to try and get him off the McCarthy track...

I think this is most likely scenario. Not Jefferies. I know Gaetz opened his mouth and said he'd vote for Hakeem over McCarthy but... like G2 said, the "spite vote" if it ever went that way would last about 2 seconds before they changed their minds again. Fun to specualte on this because it would be wild but... zero likelihood chance of happening. The Fascist Caucus holding out for Jordan and actually getting him as Speaker? I don't think that's very likely either. 5% chance. Maybe not even that. McCarthy waiting the FC out and gaining his coveted speakership? For awhile I thought he might bargain his way to it... had him at a 95-98% chance of doing so. We'll see how firm the Fascist Caucus holds onto their position here... I would drop McCarthy down to 60% at this point. Whether that goes up or down we'll have to see how steeled is the FC. I'm on board with moderate Republicans refusing to hand over their 2 years to the Fascists. It's my preferred pathway, but I have no idea the chances of that happening. I think... the longer the FC holds on, the more likely it is that moderate Republicans reach out to the other side and cut a deal with Dems (I would love to know what THAT would look like!!!) and put up Scalise. I don't know how many Dems would swing over. It's to their benefit to watch Repub's attacking each other for the next two months squabbling and being dysfunctional. Chances for Scalise, right now, 15%? That goes up the more dysfunctional the Repubs get but again, Dems would have to make a tactical decision to do so. The second they do, that 15% shoots way up to 90% methinks.

So if he gets 10 Republican "presents" and 212 votes and Jeffries gets 213 then the Jeffries wins, right? At a certain point, "present" votes don't help him. In fact, any Republican "present" votes do NOT help him... only Dem "present" votes.

We're around 12 at this point...? I think we're looking at one of the plethora of Centers in this draft or, a falling Russian talent... in the middle of the draft... wherever we end up.

PS: I think Jobe makes it to MLB some time in 2025...

oops... wasn't paying attention and missed that part...

17.

Comically, IMO.... Every player except one on your list is an Avila player... Just sayin'...

It's a thing in countries all around the world. But not really in the US as we outgrew the Wild West cowboy era... Or at least... so we thought.