1984Echoes

PS: Mark, I don't know if you remember this but... You and I have had these conversations for about 15 years or so... I've been schooled. I know that. So thank you, and... (I'm still thinking this year's prospect list is a bit higher than "slight improvement" over previous iterations...) HAH!!!

The flipside is... If they've earned a shot... Give it to them.

Or we can risk having absolutely no clue what a kid can provide at the MLB level before just dumping him in the trade or DFA market... And I'm not talking about just Paredes. These are fringe kids. We're not calling them up for wins. In fact, I would say that almost guarantees more losses. But... you're calling up the fringe guys (Carpenter, Davis, Kreidler, Clemens (oh, already got him up here...)) to see if anyone can stick. And: out with the old (Schoop, Cabrera, Barnhart, Grossman) and in with the new. Even if some of those "new" names end up changing because a couple couldn't handle MLB pitching and a different couple could... That's the point.

Nope... Our development team needs to still "work him over" some more... 50/50 on whether that's a good thing or a bad thing...!

That's fine. Thank you for the effort! Seriously! And maybe it's just me but, I think there are a lot less flaws in the 2022 list than in the 2016 list; I recognize all the growth issues that the current list of guys have to get past, and that they have exactly the flaws that you have pointed out... you've probably scouted them and know EXACTLY what all of their flaws are... I just think that there is more than just a slight incremental improvement in the quality of prospects (or maybe I mean quantity/ depth?) in 2022 than in 2016. But that's just me.

Case in point (or just for a couple examples, that might help explain my belief we're better to buddha): I think Olson, Flores, Madden and especially Jobe, are all as high, or higher, than Fulmer or Burrows. (Olson probably around Burrows and the other 3 I believe to be better than Fulmer. Fulmer was not some monster in the minors... he had a 1.25 WHIP, K'd less than 9 per 9 innings, but looked like an above average pitcher. I think Madden is maybe on that level, and Jobe (potential) and Flores looks much better than Fulmer (performance wise). Ziomek? By 2016 he had already crapped out (was that an injury) in A+ so why is he even in the discussion? I don't see a top 25 in 2016 having a guy who has already DOA'd... although maybe I'm thinking mid-season versus pre-season? There are no other pitchers that anyone thought that much of in 2016, as a potential starter. A few reliever types... Jimenez at the top of the list of course... I also see a bunch of 2016 candidates who had zero chance of making it to MLB, either at the time of the draft, or shortly thereafter: Steve Moya (he was a Mendoza candidate WHEN we drafted him, he had a crap hit tool and the team knew it), Cam Gibson, Josh Turley, Jose Azocar (he was a lottery ticket with speed, I don't ever remember having any kind of expectations for him...), Kade Scivicque? Drew Smith? Wynton Bernard? Actual expectations for these guys? I don't remember having any. Christin Stewart was our #2 prospect? And you can't find one better prospect than him on our 2022 list? Seriously? Because I see 13 guys on our 2022 list that I like a whole lot more than Christin Stewart. And Beau Burrows. And Jacoby Jones. Etc., etc., etc.

Never have I said all our top prospects will develop into stars. Nor that ALL prospects will even develop into MLB players.

I'm pretty certain that you knew the flaws in those guys before even posting that. Stewart was always a crap glove, even when we drafted him. Moya was always a Mendoza candidate, even when we drafted him. Burrows was a decent arm, but no world beater. Kevin Ziomek? Who had any expectations for him? Did I/ Maybe... but I barely remember him. Gerber was a Cody Ross type (hopeful) so yes, maybe some hope there... I remember two of those BP hopefuls, but don't ever remember thinking much of any of those other guys. This is a serious question, to Buddha as well: I think the talent level in today's system is higher than in 2016 (I don't understand your "why" question Buddha... because... I do believe it's higher?) so I would like to turn this question around: Why do you think the talent in today's system is NOT higher? Or put another way: Do you SERIOUSLY (sorry for the point of emphasis) believe that this list (not in any order): Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz. Is no better than this list: Michael Fulmer, Christin Stewart, Beau Burrows, JaCoby Jones, Kevin Ziomek, Joe Jimenez, Spencer Turnbull, Mike Gerber, Steve Moya, Zach Shepherd, Derek Hill, Tyler Alexander, Wynton Bernard, Dixon Machado, Adam Ravenelle, Paul Voelker, Drew Smith, Cam Gibson, Matt Hall, Josh Turley, Jose Azocar, Endrys Briceno, Grayson Greiner, Kade Scivicque, A.J. Simcox. Seriously. (?) Because I flat out disagree. But that's just me.

Not good. Need better from those two. Time will tell.

I vote for Australia and Mexico.

Paper loss.

Maybe... But the flipside is that it looks like there are other guys who are ready to at least get a shot. Baddoo is easy because if he's struggling... it really looks like Carpenter is ready to at least give a chance to... Other positions may be more difficult to do that with... But (also), certainly not the pitching because they've pulled up a basket full of guys, some who have done all right and some who have struggled... and yet, they STILL keep calling up new rookie pitchers that are somehow keeping (at least on the pitching side) this team in games, every single game. I don't think our pitching has been embarrassed much this season, if at all. Maybe a couple games... but it's the O that has been the embarrassment. As MTU says... do Kreidler, or Davis, deserve any kind of shot, at all? Or is the answer to that no? And only Short deserves to play in MLB because he is a "proven" glove?

I think (to me) it's less a "should have kept them in AAA" and more along the lines of: try the new guy, and if he struggles in MLB, send him back down and "next man up". I don't care if the team struggles. Quit pretending the rebuild is over (message to Ilitch/ Hinch/ Avila) and start filtering through all the new guys or potential new guys to see what sticks/ or needs more seasoning. Grossman/ Schoop/ Barnhart/ Cabrera/ etc. are not a part of our next playoff team. So... Start filtering.

This type of stuff is annoying. Especially when trying out the new is EXACTLY what they should be doing. Until we make the playoffs, the rebuild is NOT over. I think Avila is so desperate for wins, and that means Hinch and Ilitch too... that they are making short term stupid decisions instead of long term team building decisions.

No... sorry... This system looks different to me than 6 years ago. It's not just the names. You can call it faith if that's what you want to... But the talent level, or even just the possibilities in that talent level, especially compared to 6 years ago... looks much more higher end than 6 years ago. Really, I think there's no comparison.

I think you also asked the question "when" Cas... Since I am stating that the team build is coming in the future (started the past few years, even if agonizingly slow...). So: How the heck would I know? It's already been pretty chaotic. There are probably a few key issues right now hanging over their heads, with more to come: (A) Greene & Tork have to conquer their learning curves (MLB pitching), which they haven't done yet. Obviously that's a big key. I'm going to say that they have drastic improvements at the plate all through 2023. May even see some of it to close out this year. But by season 2024, what they show in MLB as hitters will be what they are for the prime of their career. Major improvements next year, 2024+ is who they are. (B) The pitching has to sort itself out. It looks to me like we have enough arms to admirably fill out a rotation, and more arms are coming that I believe in (Olson/ Flores/ etc...); but, who can actually remain healthy? Who gets pushed into middle relief, or gets stuck at AAA waiting for their shot, does anyone get pushed into being a late reliever/ closer? And how much learning curve is yet to come for each of these guys to reach their best level? Can anyone rise to a high end star/ superstar (Ace) level? Or do we end up with five #3 starters (not great, not terrible)? What is the timing of all of this? I think we can put together some great pitching here... but it's also the grayest area of the team, because... it's pitchers. (C) I think there are other contributors coming up who can fill out the team. Maybe no high end talent, but secondary guys who can be starters (I believe in Wenceel Perez still, and Dillon Dingler, etc...), the Matt Joyce's and Jason Thompson's and Lance Parrish's that are still needed to fill out a team. How many guys made their debut this year? 6? 7? 8? I've completely lost count... but a lot. We'll see who sticks out of that group. There will be more coming in 2023, 2024, and 2025. Again, who sticks? This is also a gray area, but again, it's coming. And NOT in a Winter Is Coming type of way. That's just my POV. I can't give a CLEAR answer on the "when" question because I'm not Nostradamus, and these are MLB prospects after all... But it also looks to me like we will be sorting through all these new kids coming up like, right now. Which is what we have already been doing this year with all these kids. Due to the injuries and such. But there are plenty more "on the cusp" guys trying to break through to MLB, and should be able to do so in the next 3 years. AA or higher, right now, and either flourishing or at least showing they still have a chance to make it all the way: Kerry Carpenter (Cody Ross?), Wenceel Perez, Wilmer Flores, Reese Olson, Kreidler is back in AAA but is struggling compared to last year's really nice year in AAA although I never thought of him as more than a utility guy or sometimes starter (in a pinch) but.. still need a couple guys like him as well, Dillon Dingler, Parker Meadows, Chance Kirby, Austin Bergner... Also, Navigato and Lipcius are raking this year and have reached the higher levels... and may prove to be nothing more than AAAA guys or bench guys in MLB, at best... but a team needs a few of those guys too.. But I think we will see most of those guys on that short list just above, in MLB, over the next 2 years. On the flipside: Just can NOT seem to solve AA pitching and therefore high degree possibility of flopping out (and was "supposed" to have a high hit tool when drafted): Daniel Cabrera. But then again, that was Parker Meadows last year, and he "fixed" something in his swing and has made major improvements this year, in AA. He was Mendoza/ Rey Rivera before this... now maybe he has a chance? Again, who knows, but was most definitely flopping out prior to this year.

The analysis was fine. I wouldn't sweat the minor flaws. I think the drafted WAR for the Tigers will be going way up over the next few years.

There's no pretzel logic in there whatsoever. Describe what you think is pretzel logic please...

Well the biggest point I was trying to make with that list is that 6 years ago, I think that list would have been drastically shorter, and the talent weaker. I get the distribution part of it. But I think this farm system's talent compared to 6 years ago, and the quantity of lottery tickets that are currently in the system compared to 6 years ago, means that the distribution still favors multiple MLB contributors making it to the team. Maybe not the highest end talent (since Tork & Greene & Mize & Manning already graduated), but the other contributors that are needed to fill out a team like Matt Joyce, Cody Ross, Dave Rozema, Jason Thompson, etc... Guys who might be traded, or kept, depending on the building of a competitive team, but still, guys that are able to play in MLB, even if they aren't the stars or superstars of the league. Still need those guys to fill out a team. And 1 or 2 may even surprise on the upside. I guess I was not comparing our potential distribution to other teams, but only against the distribution itself. If we have 5 or 6 guys, or 8, currently in our system that make it to MLB as contributors, whether as utility guys or starters, then it may be enough to mostly fill out a future Tigers team. Any weaknesses filled in with FA's and trades. That may be "weak" comparative to other teams if they have as you say a short list of significant list of potential big leaguers that they can plan around... But with that amount of lottery tickets... maybe I shouldn't say that we don't have a weak system but rather, we have a lot of depth that (hopefully) should result in a fair amount of MLB contributors for the team. One last point: If you are saying we have no list whatsoever of that high end talent.. are you completely down on Jackson Jobe, Josh Jung, Ty Madden, Roberto Campos, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequira, Izaac Pacheco, etc...? You feel that none of them have high end talent? Just asking... Or do they have high end talent, it's just not as high end as other systems?

I would like to test this theory... Because: A) If our system is quite bad right now, as you say, then we cannot expect more than a couple of guys from the following list to make it to MLB. B) If however, 3 or more from the following list can conceivably make it to MLB, and be productive, (you can change it to 4 or 5... pick whatever number you want), then we do NOT have a weak system, just a lot of young talented guys that will take a while to develop... which is what I am saying. So if you would indulge me (or anyone else who wants to take a shot at this)... out of the following list of prospects, who has NO chance of ever making it to MLB, for more than a cup, simply because they are not talented enough to do so. If you can NOT take them off this list as having no chance whatsoever.. then that means exactly what I've said... they have the talent, the potential... but have to go through the development process/ their learning curves to make it all the way. Short story: If they have a chance, they have the talent. If they just don't have the talent (Org guys or worse), they don't have a chance. (Aside from an emergency/ cup of coffee, or similar... which doesn't count.) If a guy might only put up a 4 or 5 WAR career (4th OF'er, utility guy, reliever...) that still counts. So who on the following list has absolutely NO chance of ever making it to MLB: Dillon Dingler, Josh Crouch, Peyton Graham, Jace Jung, Wenceel Perez, Gage Workman, Christian Santana, Manuel Sequera, Trei Cruz, Colten Keith, Adinso Reyes, Izaac Pacheco, Jose De La Cruz, Parker Meadows, Roberto Campos, Kerry Carpenter, Reese Olson, Jackson Jobe, Wilmer Flores, Ty Madden, Dylan Smith, Brant Hurter, Eddy Felix, Donal Montas, Juan Ruiz.

That... And since Baddoo is STILL struggling as of right now... make the switch and kill two birds: Give Kerry his chance... and get Baddoo back into AAA to work on his swing... Or is that too logical?

I'd love to get some Cody Ross or Matt Joyce out of him... Or at least frickin' give him that chance...

6 runs?!?!

Awesome... I'll go look... But also... "don't increase at all in the top 3" means that once a team starts falling OUT of the top 3 those odds start to decrease, correct? (before I go take a look for the answer myself...).

Apparently they were... And Hill is even gutting out a pretty decent start...