The flipside is...
You are not wrong on multiple points in here.
Can't project trades or FA's because who knows what the future holds for either of these; they are just too much of an unknown. But the flipside is... if you have a healthy farm system, then if there is a position weakness in the future, a team can either spend some money on a key free agent, or have the right prospects to trade for a key player... like Miggy or the just completed Soto trade. I don't think we have the right prospects - today - for that. But What I also mean by what I just said is that so many of our potential "upside" prospects in our pipeline are 18-20 and just drafted or just coming over to the US from the International Leagues that they still have to develop into viable prospects for the Tigers or as potential trade prospects.
On prospect surprises or player flameouts... also 100% correct. It is more a simple exercise, or "list", of "upside" prospects. Without regard to flameouts or surprises.
However, the flipside to that is...
If we only had one or two guys that we were really relying on to "make it", to MLB, to be a potential "impact" players... we'd have a very weak, talent-deficient system. Top heavy.
I don't think we have a weak, talent-deficient system. I think we have an exceedingly young system. That puts more risk on the development side, and the possibility of a lot of flameouts. But it also says we have a boatload of lottery tickets that we hope several WILL make it through the system and up in MLB. Or to be used as trade ammunition. And I believe the list I threw out there (not every guy on there has a high upside.. some are just Org players... but on the flipside, there IS a lot of high-end talent on that list... which is now on the Tigers Development team to actually develop them...).
And it's not like we don't have ANY talent in the system. In fact, we DO have a lot of talent in the system. High end talent. A LOT of it. It's just that a whole lot of that high end talent is, just, very very young.
I prefer our system as is. With a crapload of high-end upside talent... and young... than our 1980's, 1990's, and 2010's barren systems.
It took Avila too long to fix our farm system... but I think it's different now. It's better. It's loaded. Even if it takes a bit of time to see it as fruitful as we want to see it. And I would just like to point all that out.
That's my flipside.