I don't know about the intel, but...
I do believe there is a way for Ukraine to win this militarily.
Putin committed 200,000 troops to the invasion of Ukraine. These forces are split into at least 4, if not more, arenas: Kiev, Kharkov, Kherson, and Odessa. Possibly split into more forces. Against 40 million Ukrainians in which every Vitaly, Anatoly, and Alexei is arming themselves to the teeth to attack these Russian forces.
Putin can't win with tanks, planes and bombs alone.
And, tactically, he may have under-committed the forces needed to subdue Ukraine. I mentioned this before, but I believe by about 10x the amount. I think he'll need closer to 2,000,000 than 200,000 ground forces in Ukraine to steal their country. If he doesn't commit that post haste... Losses, domestic unrest, the world against Putin's Fascist Invasion...
May add up to a military loss for Putin and he is forced to back off...
We'll see.