I pulled up the draft from 10 years ago. Only three 3rd rounders have more than 5 NHL career goals. Although that may be a bit of a fluke, as from that same draft eight 5th rounders have more than 5 NHL career goals including 3 with over 100. And that 3rd round yielded a couple of starting goalies in Adin Hill and Sam Montembeault. But yeah, below the 2nd round, chances of even a cup of coffee in the NHL are under 50%.