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Everything posted by Hongbit
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Week One: Detroit Lions (0-0) @ Green Bay Packers (0-0)
Hongbit replied to MichiganCardinal's topic in Detroit Lions
My biggest concern was OL. It’s a new group and their all pro player probably had his worst game as a pro. I trust in Hank Fraley to get it figured it out. He is one of the best. They just need more time to gel. Game plan and playcalls don’t matter much when your line is a sieve. Which brings me to the point of maybe it’s time to retire the play nobody strategy in preseason. This is 2 years in a row the offense has started flat. They can’t wait until week 4 to get I’d figured out this season or else they’ll be 1-3 -
Week One: Detroit Lions (0-0) @ Green Bay Packers (0-0)
Hongbit replied to MichiganCardinal's topic in Detroit Lions
Sometimes you’re the fire hydrant. On to next week… If they lose at home with offense and secondary issues again then it will be time for concern. -
One can only dream this is the year he gets caught on a hot mic and has his Nick Castrellanos drives one to left field moment.
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Collingsworth is so ****ing annoying.
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Week One: Detroit Lions (0-0) @ Green Bay Packers (0-0)
Hongbit replied to MichiganCardinal's topic in Detroit Lions
Carlos Monarrez is the Cleveland Browns of sportswriting. -
It’s all good. We’re still talking peaches and nectarines. Close by quite the same thing.
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I use all of these same factors when I place a HR prop bet. It’s a very big part of it. They factor in the correlation in the individual player expectations. They should and do have an impact on the player odds. These factors should be baked intro the odds and not the payout formula. I’m not betting totals or sides and there isn’t any relationship like QB to WR or Point Guard to Power Forward that has a direct impact on one another. There isn’t any correlation between one batter that would impact another batter from hitting a home run in the same game with the same park conditions. They are trying to stretch things to their advantage again.
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I know about correlation and it makes sense in your examples. There shouldn’t be any on player HR props. They are completely independent of each other. FD is just being shady
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This is brilliant strategy. Finally, the Dems fighting Trump at his own shady game that values perception over truth. I don’t think it’s unusual for a President to duck out of the spotlight on Wednesday before Labor Day weekend when Congress is not in session. It’s not a big deal to set out a vague Presidential announcement on his daily schedule where he most likely announce some made up trade deal. They are taking every opportunity to hit on Trump’s age, health, and potential cognitive ability. They are not letting what may not even be true hold them back and keeping it in the forefront of the press cycle and making it a story. It’s the strategy that got Trump in office and it may be the only one that will get him out of it.
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2 recent examples with baseball props: They manipulate the payouts on parlays now. As with every book, they can change odds based on whatever they choose and that’s fine. The payout should be standard and shouldn’t change based on a player or team. A parlay of +400 and +400 should pay a standard +2500. Even if it they tweak it and want to lower it to f you, every parlay of the exact same odds should pay the same. Neither of these are true at FD. They use some unknown method to determine parlay payouts and it changes depending on the player. Have had some very weird situations where a +500/+400 parlay paid less than a +500/+350 They are also the only book that won’t void a no start in baseball. Every other book needs a batter to be in the starting lineup to play. FD does not and will keep the bet live even if a player pinch hits later and only gets one AB. You bet with the expectation of 3 or 4 AB rather than just 1. They stick you with a 1 AB play and with odds that are set like they were starting. If you live bet the 1 AB, your odds would be much better. You don’t get those odds. The most dastardly thing they do thought is they won’t let you cash the bet out and take your money back before the game starts. You have a parlay where all the legs haven’t started, they won’t let you void it once it’s been announced your player isn’t starting. They are the only book that operates this way.
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Baseball Expansion discussion, 2025 edition
Hongbit replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
ESPN has $1.5B reasons to make sure you will be hearing all about it for the next 10 years . -
I’m not sure you will find many playoff teams with a second pairing with 163 total NHL games.
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Baseball Expansion discussion, 2025 edition
Hongbit replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
Penn Gaming is one of the big national companies and since they don’t have clever gambling sounding corporate name they need a brand to partner. They started with Barstool and then pivoted to ESPN. Penn are paying ESPN $150M for 10 years plus company stock options for the right to plaster gambling over their entire platform -
As football season begins, a quick reminder that these big online books are shady AF. They do some very sheisty stuff with lines and odds. FanDuel is definitely the worst. DraftKings isn’t much better. Fanatics has a great policy on voiding bets for injury but their odds are some of the worst. MGM has very limited markets and an ancient app.
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****ty way to settle the championship as Lando conks out with a few laps to go. That’s a 25 point gain for Oscar instead of 7. That will loom very large and now everyone is out hoping for a Piastri DNF somewhere in the next few races to bring the championship battle back.
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I had similar thoughts watching OSU and Texas with great defenses and inexperienced QB’s continue to go for it on 4th and 2 inside their own territory.
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Baseball Expansion discussion, 2025 edition
Hongbit replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
This is why pro sports are so open to take all that money from DraftKings and FanDuel. -
We don’t know for sure but it’s hard to believe they would be playing hardball coming off a major injury. I couldn’t see them turning down something between the 3/$106 Crosby deal and the 4/160 deal of Myles Garrett if offered earlier this summer before Watt and Garrett.
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Parsons is a huge get for GB but nothing has changed in that their season will be determined by how well Jordan Love plays.
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This Parsons contract has set a new mark for a Defensive player. I’m not sure what Brad was thinking by not getting the Hutch extension done sooner. His deal just got more expensive.
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They got the best out of their situation. Who better would’ve been an option? Any slim chance they had of getting a current marquee driver died when Max stayed with RB. That driver would’ve been George Russell who would probably have chosen an existing midfield team over a brand new one.
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Great job by Caddy announcing Sergio and Valteri as their maiden drivers. Solid vets that will be great for a new team. New regs coming in next season so who knows they may have a really good car. Both have proven to know what to do when given a top car.
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2025 Detroit Tigers General Discussion Thread
Hongbit replied to IdahoBert's topic in Detroit Tigers
I personally see Rainer as the 2nd best prospect in the organization. I think ceiling can be higher than Clark. There are only a handful of major leaguers that I’d trade him for and all but Paul Skenes are untouchable by their current teams. -
Don’t get that at all. They have the best safety combo in football with Branch and Kerby. Arnold should be much improved in season 2 and they signed DJ Reed on the other side at corner. Thats a great defensive backfield. Jack Campbell could get really good very quickly. Anzalone is still great and Barnes was coming on big time before getting hurt. Hutch sounds like he’s back to full strength and that will be huge. Davenport is legit if he can stay healthy. Reader and Tyliek in the middle with Lopez backing them up. Alim will be back sometime in the 2nd half too.
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I am absolutely not getting in a debate over the merits of Nate Sudfeld on an NFL roster.
