sabretooth

I would really like to know as well.

Yeah, this is spot on. They cannot go back to scratch, what would be the point of trying to promise everybody another 5 year rainbow? You might as well rename them the New Royals and dare people to see an eternally poor product. And yes, it starts with REASONABLE assumptions as you laid out above. - Tork, Greene, and Meadows have to each be 2-3 WAR guys, as they were projected to be in 2022, and anybody that says that any of these 3 guys CAN'T do 2-3 WAR each in 2023 doesn't know what they are talking about. This is not a prediction, this is a screaming need and a reasonable expectation. - Baez's last two months (115 OPS+, 4+ WAR if he plays his normal D for year) is what we are going to see from him for at least 2023 and no dramatic dropoff through 2024. - the Bullpen continues to do as well as they have from the beginning of 2021. 2B, 3B, and LF: - Schoop continues to provide plus D and somehow is able to stop being a black hole as a hitter and do something more like 80-90 OPS+, which is still bad, but would be a 2+ WAR player with plus D. Sadly, there really isn't another option in the FA market or in the minors ready-to-go in 2023, and they are paying Schoop $7M. - They are able to cobble together a non-black-hole situation at 3B, maybe through a combination of Harold and a middling acquisition like Joey Wendle, and maybe they get lucky and Lipcius comes up at some point in 2023 and doesn't suck at 3B, and/or maybe they give Candy a bare-bones one-year contract for the league minimum and see if he can figure out how to hit a baseball again. - They are able to sign one of the few decent FA OFers or trade for someone decent. The OF is generally where you hope that D. Cabrera and/or Carpenter also fill a gap decently for 150 PAs or so. - The Starting Rotation is going to be a plug-and-pray situation. Hopefully among Skubal, Manning, Turnbull and Brieske, there's enough healthy starts to cover at least 60 starts with decent pitching. Hopefully they can fill one other slot decently with available healthier options. That would leave a need for at least one other guy more likely two. I hate hate hate to depend on Eduardo again, but he may be a necessary option. That still would leave probably one other guy, a FA or trade acquisition. Given what little there is to trade, probably a modest FA acquisition. That's a 3Bman, LFer, and at least one SP....probably two FAs (LF and SP) and a trade acquisition at 3B. If Meadows, Tork and Greene get it done then they are in the mid-70's...if they hit lighting in a bottle with the other positions maybe they luck their way into a winning season. It aint much but it's probably all they have to go on at this point.

Here are a sampling of some of the more impactful ways *I believe* that successful managers seem to distinguish themselves: 1. influence the FO to fill out the roster with supporting players that fit his bench/bullpen philosophy/style. 2. manage the bullpen. The success or failure of the bullpen seems to be as clear a representation of the GM/manager relationship and of the Managers skill as anything in baseball 3. manage player egos and influence the clubs persona/attitude 4. avoid major mistakes and stay ahead of risks and opportunities to the teams cohesiveness and health. Hinch seems to be really good at 1. and 2., much much better than Ausmus or Gardy. But things have gotten way out of control in 3. and 4. (cheating in HOU, implosion of hitting and injuries in 2022). I dont know if the epic bad hitting and injuries are *actually* his fault, but it certainly seems reasonable to suggest that they could be/are his fault and/or his staff.

Or we could freeze him in carbomite.

Hey I love old timers games as much as the next guy. Lets bring back Pudge, Polanco, Guillen, Inge, Grandy. C-Mo and Thames can suit up too. Nate can bring the Big League Chew, Kenny can bring whatever green stuff he needs for better grip. I actually would rather watch these guys play and old timers game than to see Miggy continue with the actual club.

I dont care if every other guy on this team sucks worse than Miggy. It is a particular embarrassment to see him continue to play, given what he used to be. Please, please, please retire this guy. If he is on the team and is on track to have more than 100 PAs next year, I will not watch.

Gads

What the Funny Bone......pitching for the Tigers is like helping Jack Bauer.....you know you are going to pay a steep price.

This occurred to me as well -- it seems to me that any new GM not named Epstein would need time to get his people and systems in place, and even a superstar GM like Theo would likely have a much harder time in today's big/deep organizational structure then the more simplified structures of say, 20 years ago. This is why the ability to trade and acquire FAs is so important. The new GM has to be able to do this to re-establish this team's ability to at least play 500 ball within the next couple of years. This cannot be a 5 year project or people like me will simply never watch again. I can't take the 3rd 5+ year losing-fest in the last 25 years, it would be like being a Royals fan at some point.

Yes, I just looked it up, over his 6 best years (2016 - 2021), Grossman averaged the following per year: Average 115 442 376 55 95 21 2 10 43 7 2 60 90 With a slash of BA/OBP/SLG/OPS/OPS+ .253 .359 .400 .759 108 That's pretty nice, actually better than Becker, who was usually below 100 OPS+. Grossman has so far been about half-way between Becker and Johnny Grubb, one of the all-time great part-time players, who was always above average, but practically never played full time, but over 16 seasons still wound up with 5000 PAs, 1150 H, 100 HR, 550 BB (more BB than SO), and a stunning career 121 OPS+. 1981 (looks like he might have been injured) and 1987 (his last year at age 38) were the only two years with OPS+ below 102. That is what I call a safe bet.

That graphic of all of the current starting lineup's draft origins is REALLY fascinating. Looks like the average is about 3-4 guys in a lineup (putting aside the top starting pitcher) that were drafted by the same team. The Tigers were at 2 (Tork/Greene) assuming this was put together before 2022 with projected lineups. Let's try a thought experiment. Let's say you have 4 guys in your 9-man lineup on average from your draft. Let's say the frequency of turnover is thus: 1 is replaced every year 1 is replaced every other year 1 is replaced every third year 1 is replaced every fourth year In the above scenario, would need to develop about 2 guys a year from your system to stay about average. My guess is that the average turnover isn't quite that high, but you get the point. Seems like you need to draft and develop at least one good position player or maybe two if you want to be competitive without being too heavy on FAs and trades.

NBD, at first I thought Richie Becker had made a comeback or something 🙂 Well, I'll give you one thing, I'd like to see hitters of his quality on the Tigers. 😀

In response to Micro's thoughtful question you responded with a silly meme about how it's obvious that Bernard gets on base.....I was trying to imagine Micro as one of the scouts that had to be schooled by the new kid...didn't really work. The reference of that meme of course is J. Giambi, who had a BB% of 15% in AA and AAA and again in the Major Leagues. Not everybody who gets on base well walks to the degree that Giambi did, I get that, but the guy you are talking about doesn't even have above-average skills in that area. Bernard's AA and AAA BB% is about 7.5%. His peak was 9.6% in 2014 against A-ball pitching. He has only 70 walks in his last 870 PAs (8%), so it's not like he's developed in that area even as he has aged through his peak years athletically. Anyway, best of luck to the young man, I wish him well, good to see him achieve the dream!

So guys in the lineups from the ol' English D's drafts including guys on Detroit are: - Mize - Tork - Greene - Nick C - JV - W. Adames But who is supposed to be our draft-product working as the SS for San Fransisco? It's not Crawford, did they think Machado was the SFG everyday SS? Anyway, the list above is pretty weak, except for JV.

1300 AAA PAs and a .320 OBP. Jeremy Giambi would be proud indeed.

I came to MTS in 2005 and used my early days to promote the cause of Marcus Thames 😀 I never saw 2006 coming, and sharing that experience along with the ensuing good years was really great. The Avila years were very difficult for me to enjoy, especially with the horrifying Brad A, and Gardenfire, and the new "yay losing is how you win!!!" silliness from a handful of MTS guys. I was very happy to see them surge last year, and expected them to be respectable this year. After this years debacle, I hope that Chris gets lucky with picking a good GM and we get lucky with a decent/winning team in the next few years.

Yes, the Cecil/Tettleton/Phillips Tigers were great. They kept bringing in fringe sluggers for a couple of years like guest stars on Gilligans Island....Sheets, Inky, Carreon, Gibby 2.0, Eric Davis, etc.

Ah, Wayne State...wow...were you residing on campus? They did have kind of a decent team with Garner for a couple of years, but yeah, the playoffs were a dream.

Yeah, if the Lions won, the whole region would melt down. Grown men crying, seas boiling, dogs and cats living together....

Yeah, I agree with this take. To grow up with the post Cecil/Fryman teams must have been pretty brutal, though I always had hopes for the Clark/Easley/Palmer/JuanE/Kapler/Moehler/Weaver/Thompson (and BradA and Brocail LOL). If I read you right that you were born in 1987, you would have experienced the start of the 2004-2014 era during your college days, which should have been a ton of fun! 2006 still stands as the funnest year this side of 1984 and better for me because I got to enjoy it with my sons. And 2006 proves that with the right owner/GM combo, you can turn a team around very quickly. Maybe not from 43 to 95 wins in 3 years like DD did, but 70-something to 80-something in 2 years should be doable at anytime with the right leadership. And as you turn a team around, you can make the moves internally to help make the team sustainable. Avoiding long extensions for incumbent players would be a first step. Firesales are a no-no on the other extreme.

Yeah they cant/wont go with anything close to the status quo in 2023.

Yeah, its not just that he sucks, others suck too....its that he has zero chance to succeed. Its like Craig Paquette c.2003.

Wow, to have missed the 1980s Tigers...the team of the decade in the AL (through 1988 anyway)...what a shame!

I think the chances are very slim. But it seriously is the only move that would give me any serious hope that we wont suck for another 3-5 years at minimum. Buddha, whose opinion I respect a lot, touts the Oriole model as superior. If thats the model, we are likely looking at probably 5 years of additional suckitude with further promises of "wait a few years". We were sold a lemon on the last rebuild. No more f'ng rebuilds. I realize that this organization sucks and we dont have a winning roster, but history proves that you can get a good thing rolling within a year or two if you are willing to do what it takes. Getting the best turnaround guy available would be evidence that Chris is serious about showing evidence of on field progress to winning in a couple of years, maybe less of we are lucky, maybe more if we are not, but no rebuilds. Getting any other external candidate ***to me*** = rebuild (no thanks), and Menzin or Chadd wouldnt get hired at this point to run a AAA club.

I think the only possible alternative to Theo Epstein would be too to hire a well regarded assistant From one of the successful organizations like the Rays, the Astros, the Cardinals, or the Dodgers. Putting aside the Dodgers huge advantage in revenue and payroll, I think it can be safely said that none of these organizations are a one man show. None of them were built by one man nor sustained by one man. It also follows that these successful teams took time to build their systems up with the right leadership and team in order to in order to build the right systems that could be perpetuated as the team changed. The luck needed to pick the right GM, who would start the ball rolling and the time it would take to build the right FO team **and** implement the systems behind it all feels like it would require **another long 3-5+ year wait.** Sorry, no f'ng thanks. There are as far as I'm aware only 2 GMs around who have the proven capability to turn a losing franchise around. The Tigers already fired one of them in 2015. So in my opinion Chris either puts all of his chips in Theo Epstein, or he rolls the dice again on an unproven commodity, and waits another indeterminate number of years to see if it works. Theo all the way. Or bust.