sabretooth

Gads! Even I'm not that pessimistic. Go get Rupert Jones!

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/mlb/tigers/2022/04/02/detroit-tigers-riley-greene-injury-foot-fracture/7253602001/ Time to get Conforto or anybody that can hit the ball.

Alexander pitched well in his last 9 starts last year: 48IP 42H 14R 13BB 40K 5HR 2.62ERA 1.145WHIP 7.5/2.5 K/BB ratio Hope he can keep doing something like that.

Oh my word.

Yeah, I guess after looking at the underlying DRS numbers I'm more hopeful that pitching can see a big (25-50 run) improvement from defense alone. As you said, they also have a rotation with guys who will give you 30 or so starts, 5+ IP/start, 150-180 IP...Eduardo touched 203 IP once in 2019. There are no workhorses, no aces (yet). That's likely to require SP depth (which they kinda have with Peralta and Alexander) and a good bullpen (which they don't have). I do think they will get to 710 runs hitting-wise, but with the pitching, they will likely need substantially more hitting to win 85+ games.

Yeah, in 2008 Renteria/Guillen had a -15 combined DRS at SS/3B, and in 2009 Everett/Inge were a combined +20, so that's about a third. The combined DRS at SS and CF was a whopping -35 in 2022 (!!!).....I didn't realize it was THAT horrible.....if Baez and Greene can combine for a +5 to +10 (Baez has generally been between 3 and 6, we don't know what Greene might do), that would be a +40 to +45 swing right there.....plus Willi not playing 2B will help too, might add another 5+ right there....it might not be 70 but it is more than I thought.

I hope that works...other than Conforto, there isn't anybody else left in the FA mkt. who can really help hitting-wise. The existing guys will have to overperform across the board and have no major injuries, I believe, in order to be in a mid-season position to compete by adding a player or two. Whoever they add will have less than 1/2 the season to assist the team if the trade(s) happen(s) after the ASB. We shall see.

I am expecting a defensive improvement at SS and CF, which is significant, but the rest of the cast is the same, so I'm not seeing how those two positions save them 70 runs vs. 2021. Maybe a dozen, maybe even two dozen, that's worth a couple of wins.

If they allow only 670 runs that would be quite an accomplishment, a half-run reduction per 9 innings vs. 2021....and they would be where the Blue Jays, A's, Cards, and Astros were in 2021. Seems really unlikely to me.

Yeah, it's one thing to have a hit and a miss from the 1st round or to have only a couple of good prospects out of the rest of the draft over a couple of years, but to have only the tank-picks as plus prospects after 5 years of rebuilding is just unbelievable. There simply was no rebuild, effectively. The last 5 years = Three Tank Amigos. maybe Manning finds it, maybe they salvage a Scott Sizemore out of the rest, and a bunch of crap.

....missing the playoffs by a handful of games, because they pulled up short in the offseason, would be a real waste, a promising season down the drain **if that happens**. I'm not saying Conforto is/was the answer, but there were other guys that could have helped and were not expensive relative to their likely production.

They had better have their sights on a mid-season trade or two, because they simply do not have the horses to make the playoffs with this roster as currently constructed, even if some key guys overperform and nothing bad happens.

Didn't know about the shoulder. If he winds up being not worth the risk then fine, but they still should have signed another bat in the offseason...a number of affordable bats were signed. It's wierd to complain because unlike the last 5+ years, every position on the team other than DH is pretty solid. Barnhardt's bat is weak, even for a C, but if his D and game-calling are strong, that's probably OK....and Grossman's glove is sub-par, but he's still likely going to be a decent LFer. Miggy is the one black hole at DH, probably the worst regular DH in baseball. Even his nice-ish second half last year would still be pretty bad, especially if they are forced to waste extra PAs in the middle of the lineup with him, which is likely. Hopefully he can happily accept a reduced role.

They should really consider acquiring Conforto for 2 years and have Conforto steal some of Haase, Miggy's, and the Bench's near-replacement PAs with Conforto's likely plus hitting. Projections have him at $18M/year, which would raise the Tigers' payroll from $116M - $134M, right at the league average. The lineup is projected by Steamer/ZIPS/FG to have fairly nominal output in terms of RC at every position, except DH (2021 RC in parenthesis): C: Barnhardt: 35-37 (42) 1B: Tork: 80-84 (X) 2B: Schoop: 75-80 (87) SS: Baez: 73-80 (80) 3B: Candy: 82-86 (91) LF: Grossman: 77-81 (94) CF: Greene: 64-71 (X) RF: Baddoo: 69-84 (61) DH: Miggy: 50-65 (60) C/Bench: Haase: 28-40 Rest: about 50 They are projected to have a 4.34 ERA over 1458 IP = 709 ERA + 75 UERA = **784 RA** 2021 (515) + Tork 2022 low end (80) + Greene 2022 low end (64) + Rest (50) = 709 (74 pythag wins) 2022 low end (633) + Rest (50) = 683 (71 pythag wins) 2022 high end (708) + Rest (50) = 758 (79 pythag wins) Conforto is projected to have 540 PAs or so and 75-80 RCs....the Bench, Miggy and Haase would produce about 30-50 over that span. Conforto's extra 30-50 RCs vs. Miggy/Haase/Bench guys would equal about 3 - 5 wins. That alone could make the difference between a 75-80 win team struggling to win and an 80-85 win team on the cusp of the playoffs. Of course FG could be underrating our pitching, but I wouldn't count on our pitching overperforming. It's time to add that bat. Now. They probably won't do it, but they should. You don't have the opportunity for a winning season all of the time, and this is one of those seasons. They should make another move now.

Actually, this fits perfectly with what I have heard and understood, AND is consistent with my basic complaint about Chris I's handling of the Tigers - low risk, low reward. We get a shitty product that *might* eek into decent/good territory but he's not going to dedicate the resources necessary to make it a consistent winner. And as KL2 just said to Lee a few posts ago, it's inevitable that the Tigers will go through a bust cycle again. Note that he did NOT say that it's inevitable that the Tigers will go through a "boom" cycle after all of the tanking that KL2 has supported. So basically, the idea seems to be "enjoy .500+ baseball (maybe!) and *maybe* you'll be lucky enough to see the playoffs (or not!) before they inevitably crash and burn and go through another 5-year tanking cycle". Wow, I'm pumped!!

Actually your stated objective has always been very extreme, "all or nothing". Either win a championship or lose as many games as possible and get the top pick, that's been your mantra. My mantra is simple and middle-of-the-road - don't tank, spend at least an average amount of money, draft and develop, trade effectively, and try to win and make the playoffs at least on a fairly consistent basis.

We as fans should support and cheer these young men, they are great talents, and I think (and hope) that they will be healthy and live up to the billing. But let's remember that it took a ****hell of a lot of super-awful baseball**** to get them on this team. We are **hoping** that these youngsters (and the other tank-pick Mize) help this team achieve a level of success in the immediate and intermediate future that the team could have enjoyed throughout the last few years through the proper/competent acquisition and development of drafted talent without tanking, as well as trades and free agency. Going forward, if Chris I never wants a high payroll structure again, fine, but as a fan I reasonably want and expect him to get the payroll up to an average/normal amount for a winning team. Think of it this way: - when the owner has at least an average salary structure, the **owner** pays what he should expect to pay for a good team, and we the fans get to enjoy it. It's not our right, but it is reasonable to want this and even to expect it as fans. - when the owner decides to lose a ton of games for a number of years so he can have a shot at top/cheap/young talent for a few seasons, **WE** the fans pay the price in watching a horrible team for years so that the owner can go cheap and pocket the profit, and **maybe** we the fans get to see a decent team again in the future at some point, if Chris I eventually decides that maybe he'll think about supporting a good team with a normal payroll again (or not).

Co-STAN-za

Yeah, obviously there are a ton of variables....everybody agrees that Mize/Skubal/Manning are the big X factors in the rotation, and Tork/Greene/Baddoo are the big Xs on offense. The veterans hopefully provide their predicted value/performance (Barnhardt, Miggy, Schoop, Baez, Candy, Grossman, ERod, Pineda, Chafin, Soto, Fulmer, Cisnero). Beyond the above groups, Eric Haase is best positioned to outperform expectations; he will be the unchallenged main C backup to CB, and will continue to get semi-regular time elsewhere. Given his fall-back projection for 2022, if he can hit like he did in 2021, he would have a good shot at 350 PAs, and could add 10-20 RCs vs. his 2022 projection. There are a bunch of guys waiting in the wings: - Reyes and Castro will probably get the biggest opportunities to play and both had pretty good 150+ PA stretches in 2021 - Paredes, Kriedler, and Clemens have the most upside. Paredes elevated the ball (18 LA) in his short 2021 stint, which is hopeful. Kriedler mashed 22 HRs, which is nice, and Clemens has a power-stroke but has not impressed yet. - Daz and Hill have gloves and speed and might turn into decent 4th OFers but I wouldn't bet on it at this point. Of the above guys, Paredes continuing to elevate the ball more and hitting for on-base + power seems like the most likely place for some unexpected pop.

Ty is a serious X factor. Good control, velo, stuff, good results in the rotation last year.

Yep...this is the kind of signing that I have been hoping for for that reason. Given Pinedas injury risk, and the relative youth of the other guys, I would like to see one other similar signing.

Yes! Cruzer and I are on the same page 👍

The notion of "waiting to spend" until all of the other pieces are in place is just silly. I see people on MTF saying that it's alright that the Tigers are projected to have a losing season in 2022, and that we don't need to win this year, and that if we're going to win it should be because of unexpected improvement from the youngsters -- bullcrap. If we added two good starting pitchers, a good OF, and some reasonably priced bullpen help, we would be projected to be a winning team, and have a good shot at the playoffs. And Chris Illitch would probably still make a tidy profit (I don't care about the profit, but a few folks around here seem to care). But nope, spending to get us over the hump is the "wrong" way to do it, sayeth the salary scolds. We must pay for our sins of cheering for a team that long long long ago had a high salary structure. Five years of losing is not enough atonement. Make it six years..... .....and maybe Chris I will start to feel like maybe he wants to think about possibly spending something approaching a level of money that isn't one of the bottom ten teams in the league.

I am fascinated with the financial side, being a finance guy....but I hate it when fans oppose getting a good player at a good price that the team needs to win because they know the owners' bottom line needs well enough to take such a stand. Even fans who digest and understand all of the public information about player performance and potential, player and union contracts/negotiations, team/league budgets, owner finances, and so on, are never in any reasonable position to objectively judge the potential for a team to maximize team performance/profit. From the standpoint of diminishing returns, I think it's reasonable to speculate that there is a "breaking point" where too much spending on the roster interferes with the proper functions of the organization and with the development of players. For orgainizations like the Rays/Cards that appear to excel at the non-spending parts of the game, that theoretical too-much-spending breaking point might be a lot lower than the Yankees or Dodgers, who are accustomed to the nuances of integrating large payrolls. The Tigers are in neither situation. Unless they acquire generational upgrades in front office personnel and prove that they have ascended to the level of the Rays/Cards, they will have to push all of the right buttons and spend a reasonable/average amount of money to succeed on a fairly regular basis, just the rest of the league. Hell, even the Cards have had a top-half salary structure for at least the last 5 years.

I agree with the need for separating sabr analysis and politics. I'm a conservative guy, so I dont agree with the leftwing stuff, but as you know I have also opposed fans adopting the owners perspective regarding cost avoidance and low cost approaches to guaranteeing profits. As you also know, I would rather listen to fans be fans rather than to hear them scold me for failing to embrace lower payrolls, because somehow that helps teams sustain winning (yeah, if you are one of the handful of orgs that are usually very good at player selection, development, and deployment, which the Tigers under AA have not been). As for sabrs out there, I dont really follow sabr individuals... nowadays I read articles about specific topics that I am already researching. If an article that I come across seems off-topic I move on. I havent noticed the leftward shift out there but it doesnt surprise me.