sabretooth

To be perfectly clear, I am not saying that anyone should be fired, nor should they even be contemplating firing anybody at this time, nor should anybody's job be on the line based upon wins and losses this year. I am saying that I have no reason for faith in any of these guys until they perform on the field. Why any fans would accept anything less and/or criticize that perspective after so many years of losing is beyond me. I realize that the lack of talent left for the new FO and the injuries suffered have fated them to a low win total. But I also keep hearing suggestions that they should be tanking every year until they secure the next Tom Brady with the top overall pick (never mind the pretty it was picked in the 6th rd). That is a bullcrap approach...they need to do whatever they can to get whatever quarterback they need at whatever the right time may be, and NOT assume that the top pick is the only way to get the right WB. Should we get the ultimate QB sooner or later? That depends on a lot of things we cannot predict. Bottom line is that we need to build the right team for whoever the QB may be without multi-season tanking. If we play our cards the right way and build the right team, if the best QB is not available through the draft, then we can go out and get a Tom Brady or even a Matt Stafford with a trade or a free agent signing and be a really good team with the really good QB and avoid lots of needless tanking. I do wonder if anyone believes that it's going to take 6 years to turn this thing around. I don't care how bad the situation is, in the NFL you can turn almost any situation around and get it on a an upward trajectory towards the playoffs within 3 years, even if the playoffs might not come until year 4.

I do appreciate the fact that they are finally running the ball fairly effectively

I feel like someone should quote Risky Business

Mike Cueller was a really good pitcher....sad that I just missed his prime...I was born in 1970 and started watching baseball in 1977.

I remember, I was there....the last playoff game the Tigers appeared in. JD sent one to the wall to end it that would have tied the game.

You are right of course that they will always find GMs and HCs....I do believe that the top-of-the-line talent can easily avoid jobs they see as less-than-desirable. The Fords might have a reputation for being hands-off (I have heard people say that but I wonder if that's true), but the Lions definitely have a national reputation for being the Kobayashi Maru of NFL teams. While I honestly believe the team's reputation as an all-time-loser hurts our chances at getting top talent to come here, I also know that I am wildly speculating on this point.

The FO should do all of this evaluation, and your criteria are sensible....my bigger issue is whether the FO's judgment regarding the HC and more importantly the FO's judgment and performance WRT the roster is capable and up to snuff. They will and should have some time to work things out, but after next year, if things are not clearly moving in the right direction (I am not talking playoffs in year two but a clearly positive trajectory towards a winning record and hopefully playoff contention in year 3 or 4), I would conclude that they are not up to the job, and shouldn't have more than 3 years if that is the case. If the FO bombs in a couple of years, then ownership is in a serious quandary. They can and should move on, without waiting more than 3 years, but in that case, ownership would be moving to their 4th FO regime in 10 years (Mayhew out in 2015, Quinn out in 2020, and Holmes out after 2023, new regime in 2024)....granted, Sheila would have been responsible only for two changeovers, but at what point would the Ford family become a pariah with potential FO talent (if they aren't already)? I know I'm getting ahead of myself, but this is really my way of asking -- if Sheila is to be taken seriously as an owner at this time, and not tainted with the Ford stink out of the gate, how long does she have before her regime turns into a pumpkin? Or a Pinto?

Yes, I saw this same thing a couple of years ago. I have relied on this for my thinking about Story's likely strong performance as a hitter post-Coors.

This is a very good post....especially the last part. I am so far not impressed by a new HC who "fires" his new OC from play calling only to pull out the most conservative offense imaginable. I suppose it makes sense for a team with zero skills/talent. That's on Holmes primarily. OTOH, Campbell should not be judged on W/L at this point. However, I do expect to see clear evidence at some point that he has a program and approach that will translate to a talented roster. Is he a great motivator of talent? We have seen signs of this with competitive games where you would have expected a large margin of defeat.... .....but then there's the Philly game. Campbell seems more like a bread-and-butter HC with a great personality than an innovative guy. Despite my reservations, I'm fine with Campbell for now and for next year. Also, as we all know, the Lions' HC position is a graveyard, at least for guys who want to succeed as a HC. It is well known that a stint here has only led to success as OC/DC with other teams or oblivion in the past....we have never seen a HC succeed here and/or elsewhere. Will Campbell be the first in modern Lions' history? Let's hope, but I don't have high hopes. In any case Holmes is the one who needs to really get the job done or the HC debate is moot.

No more than 3... ...sorry, I am seeing Clint as a semi regular at most....Grossman will probably be gone after 2022 anyway... I do agree that having plus OF defense is desirable..especially with a young staff.

I cannot believe that there wasn't a holding penalty

The Mets

Despite the unsexiness of it, Sewall seems to be working out pretty well....at least until he loses his arm is is arm in a freak tiddleywinks accident, or gets run over by a big wheel and killed in his front yard, or something particularly gruesome and lionesque in nature

This is an extremely reasonable post and I can't disagree with any of it... But for crying out loud after 60 years I just have to wait until this team starts showing me something before I say how much I like the job this guy or that guy seems to be doing or how much I trust Holmes based on his strong Rams record of player eval and such.

I'm not laying this all at any individual's feet, but I'm not going to assume that anyone is doing a good job at anything until I start to see some damn results out of this team

No, I really blame ownership more than anything, and the front office that they hired, secondarily. But I also blame the coaches, because they also seem to suck. It's a huge team effort to suck this badly. I will give them that much credit.

Campbell will exceed current expectations of being unqualified.

Remember: the brand new HC took the play calling away from his brand new OC so the HC could call these plays.

My goodness, what a joke this organization is. Lions fans can at least take comfort in the knowledge that they are *trying* to lose this year....and probably next year...and maybe the year after that one.

That is good

...and it's not like Baez has eye popping defensive stats at SS every year...I have no doubt he's a very fine talent defensively, but it just doesn't seem to me that he is a sure thing to deliver anything year-to-year except above-average HRs for a SS. I will give him this -- he plays 140+ games every year. He and Story don't miss many games....and up to this point, Semien has been incredible in that regard.

Yeah....some other things that really bug me about Baez: - he dropped 20 doubles (from 38 to 18) from 2019 to 2021 and added 28 Ks, with no corresponding increase in HRs. - he has a very low LD rate (under 20%) every year, and also a low FB rate, a low LA (10), and a lot of GBs (usually around 50%)....add in the massive Ks and very low BBs and he has about as bad a hitting approach as you can possibly imagine. Once his skills diminish a little bit his remaining area of reliable offensive production (pretty much all HRs) could just disappear. He's a lot lot lot better than what we have, but I just cannot get comfortable with him as THE solution, especially if we have a shot at Correa/Seager/Story/Semien.

So I know I'm being repetitive, but just to sum up, I would be happy with any of the top guys....basically in this order/price: - Correa - 10/300 - Seager - 10/250 - Story - 7/175 - Semien - 5/125 - Baez - 5/125 I am hoping they get Story, as Correa and Seagers injury histories worry me, especially with the gi-normous commitments that they will require. I'm afraid that Baez's skills (speed, defense) are going to disappear as he hits 30 years of age, and his remaining skills (some power) won't be enough to make him a good SS. Semien has had two amazing seasons, but at his age, it's easy to imagine that he will turn into a pumpkin again, especially after he signs the deal for the rest of his career. Story I think will get a bit of a discount because everybody assumes that his Coors/Road splits mean that he will be a bad hitter away from Coors. The history of hitters going to and leaving Coors as Rockies players is that they adapt to the "straighter" pitches in the high altitude for their 81 home games...but this has a negative effect on their ability to square up the ball away from Coors...so their Home (Coors)/Road splits widen quite a bit. Then, when they go to another team, they re-adapt to normal home-park conditions, and their Home/Road splits become more normal. Their overall stats after they leave the Rockies stay about the same, though they tend to drop some HRs as they hit fewer FBs. I think Story's hitting, defense, age, health (which is a big plus vs. Correa and Seager) and likely discount would make him the ideal guy.

You simply have to be prepared for Semien to turn into a pumpkin again (re: below average hitter), and at 32 years old, he's not likely to be an above average defender for long either....so you could have a mediocre hitter and defender with a long/large premium contract. I don't mind big contracts at all, but they have to come with big production and/or defense, and I doubt that Semien will provide plus hitting production for long (though I wouldn't be surprised to see him slug well for a year or three), and I'm not so sure going forward that the defense would be plus either. Don't get me wrong, I'd much much much rather have him than anyone else in the organization for the next couple of years, but I'd really rather if they are going to reach for a big FA that they get one of the younger guys with more established plus performance levels.

I guess I'd feel more comfortable with a long-term deal with a guy whose skills will likely age a little better. People with decent on-base skills age better I think (re: Grossman, Becker, Tony Phillips, etc.).