sabretooth

I didn't bother to check to see what the trade was… do you happen to know what the Reds gave up?

It takes drafting, trading, AND $$ to win consistently. A few teams can win with less than an average payroll (Rays, As), but only because they do a superlative job at drafting, development, and trades, something that AA is incapable of matching. AVERAGE LEAGUE PAYROLL OR BUST. It's that simple.

If the budget is to maintain a team salary that is way below average (and way below several teams in our own division, then yes, we will likely not spend the $$ needed to compete for the playoffs in 2022, and I'm pretty sure that we won't be competing any year after 2022 without at least a league average salary....unless we suddenly show an above-average ability to develop players that aren't top-5 1st rounders, which we have never shown much ability to do.

Alrighty

Right.....I was poking around and didn't realize that Joe Morgan had been with Houston for a number of years before joining the Reds. The Colt 45s/Astros also had a guy by the name of Jim Wynn who had a very impressive career, borderline HoF numbers, 55 WAR, almost 300 HRs, 129 OPS+ for his career, and respectable JAWS scores. Between the ages of 23 and 33, he had 8 out of 11 seasons with 4.7 WAR or better, and three seasons with over 7 WAR. He "only" had 1665 hits, but had an incredible 1224 walks, with a career on-base of .366. Even though he played a lot of CF, he had more HR than doubles, and almost as many walks as strikeouts. Fascinating that I never heard of him.

Good point.

Yeah, testosterone enhancements have been around forever...Ruth was rumored to have tried animal derivatives....I guess Mantle used something including amphetamines and artificial testosterone in 1961...by 1987 roids were at a different level from what I understand, whereas amphetamines had been more the weapon of choice in the 1960s.

Yeah...LOL...greenies were the weapon of choice then, amirite?

I honestly have no idea about him, other than the numbers on the page....they say "HoF", but maybe he shot himself in the foot personality-wise....dunno, don't really care, though obviously behind-the-scenes stuff can break a guy's reputation with his peers. His accomplishments certainly merit the Hall....

Well, Gil Hodges at least.

Dick Allen clearly belongs. Sounds like Al Kaline and others didn't like the cut of his jib or some other BS. Boyer is borderline. Hodges and Kaat had impressive careers but fall well short of the HoF standards for their positions. Just shocking how great Roger Maris was for two seasons, and how so-so he was for the rest of his career. Kind of the Brady Anderson of his day.

Anything less than two average or better new SPs for 2022, in my opinion, makes it very unlikely that they will make the playoffs in 2022, and makes a winning record in 2022 a toss-up. For a winning record and a shot at the playoffs, with only one average-ish SP added, and only one good bat added (let's assume a SS like Story), we would need no new major injuries, strong improvements from Mize, Skubal, Manning, Alexander, AND the bullpen, as well as Tork and Greene as plus regulars, and maybe even Boyd and/or Turnbull coming back to provide 10+ good starts. That is a tall order. I'm thinking the above players net us 75-80 wins, or a winning record if we are reasonably lucky with development/injuries. Making the playoffs with that crew in 2022 would involve serious luck.

It's a little more complicated than that. Mize and Skubal will likely cover 60 starts with a projected 330 innings between them. Manning is projected to hit 28 starts and 150 innings, if he does that, then they will have roughly 90 starts covered by the top three guys and about 480 IP. Alexander is projected to go from 15 starts/100 IP in 2021 to 23 starts/130 IP in 2022. Now we're up to 113 starts and 610 IP. That leaves about 50 starts. 42 of those were provided at an average/above average level by Boyd, Turnbull and overperformance from Peralta in 2021....anything less than what they did would be a step back for the SP. If they get one really good SP like Ray, who covers 30 starts and pitches 200+ IP, and Manning and Alexander pitch as projected, and no other SPs blow out a tire, and maybe Boyd and/or Turnbull come back and give us 10+ decent starts, then their rotation might be decidedly better than in 2021. That's an awful lot of if's. But if, as some around here are suggesting, they only acquire one cheap decent-ish starter, like Alex Cobb or Martin Perez....you get 20 - 28 "ok" starts with 125 - 150 IP and a 4-4.50 ERA.....then you already might be a little worse off in those starts vs. Boyd/Turnbull/Peralta in 2021....and you are STILL left with 20-30 starts to fill. If those remaining 20-30 starts are taken by various spot-starters and minor leaguers like Funk or whoever, that will likely be a major step back for the rotation vs. 2021, and will put additional work on a bullpen that wasn't that good in 2021, and according to Avila, isn't going to have any reinforcements in 2022. They need to acquire TWO average or better SPs.

DeJong could be the next Jhonny P...but in a SS rich year, when we desperately need a dependable or plus SS, he would be a disappointing risk of failure to me.

Even if Story's bat looks more like 2021 going forward than his earlier years, hes still a good deal at $25M per year, thanks to plus defense, and the potential that he can have a plus year with the bat at any time. At age 28, his contract will likely take him beyond his prime years, but for at least the next couple of years he should be at least a 3 WAR player, with the realistic potential to be a 5 in any given year. At SS, thats a near-cornerstone level player. For $25M per year, thats $5-8M per win, perfectly fine from a value standpoint, especially as a high level of production from SS is usually correlated with team success, as long as the other pieces are sound.

I ran an analysis a few times....the gains we can expect from Mize/Manning/Skubal/Alexander will likely be offset by regressions from whoever replaces the starts for Turnbull/Boyd and Peralta/Urena, esp. since the latter pair overperformed their peripherals. We need two new SPs who are at least average, not one.

I have no problem with a Wade Miley type as our 5th starter with the hopes that he pulls off a nice season....but we need to add a clearly above-average pitcher for the front of the rotation.

Yeah, exactly....God bless you for saying this. Wade Miley indeed.

What I have been hearing around here is...ehhh, maybe we can't or shouldn't land expensive players...maybe it's best if we stuck with: - Tucker Barnhart, who will replace what Rogers/Greiner did in 2021 at Catcher (he's likely worse than Rogers and better than Greiner...maybe a slight improvement overall?) - Alex Cobb or some other cheap starter replaces the pretty good 24 starts provided in 2021 by Turnbull and Boyd (we probably are worse off) - Ryan Kreidler replaces the Castros at SS (an upgrade with the glove, who knows about the bat, maybe slightly better). Plus some bargain hunting for a cheap reliever and other bench/org filler. Sounds like a clear step back, considering that we're losing the pretty good 24 starts provided in 2021 by Turnbull and Boyd. That would probably result in 70 - 75 wins + whatever Greene can do vs. what Mazara/Reyes did in 2021 (add 3-4 wins) + whatever Tork can do vs. the 2B guys from 2021 that Schoop will replace (add 3-4 wins). If everything works out, we are a little over .500....or basically about the same as 2021. Meh. We need to do a LOT better than Barhart, Cobb/whoever at SP, and Ryan freaking Kreidler. No offense to Ryan freaking Kreidler.

Yep.....this organization ushered a bunch of talent out the door, tanked for four years, and now we are supposed to hope that the three about-ready-to-go stars that we have as a result of all of the mega-losing will be the driving force behind a cheap winning team in a couple of years, maybe in 2022. We could have had a winning team over the last 5 years, with a reasonable salary structure. A total lack of imagination and competence in our ownership and GM/FO caused the last 5 years of losing.

My gosh, if they don't sign a SS or another significant bat, and they only go for an average-ish SP, I wouldn't even expect a winning season in 2022.....maybe if Tork and Greene play full time and hit really well, that might get them to 500 or better, but I'm not expecting a winning season unless they get several plus FAs.

He's not. Or, if he is, than we are doomed.

Yeah, Barnhart basically sucks but he fills a hole that otherwise would be filled by Greiner, so I guess that's a 0.5 WAR improvement.....yay I guess this splash means that we don't need a SS or and OF, now, right? /sarcasm

There is a pro-tanking mindset that pretends that if some losing is good, more losing is awesome....both assumptions are wrong, with rare exceptions (like losing a game or two guarantees a generational draft pick talent)....but the devotees of tanking have a zombie-Moneyball concept that even Moneyball never contemplated.

This is how rebuilds happen in the NFL.....by definition if they are mediocre and hanging around a last playoff spot late in the season in 2022, that is at least fairly competitive....and by 2023 they are a winning team expecting to make the playoffs. Show me one management team in the NFL that needed four f'ing seasons (until 2024) to become competitive as KL2 suggests and then maintained success....that is not how sustained turnarounds happen the NFL.