sabretooth

I would recommend going for a star SP and RP in addition to the "solid" SP, but I know that's not going to happen; the likely result is with the solid FA SP acquisition, their pitching overall will not likely improve in 2022 v 2021. - the solid SP would hopefully replace the 24 starts of Boyd and Turnbull with about the same level of performance, as well as hopefully another couple of good starts....so probably no major improvement vs. 2021 from the FA acquisition. - As you said, there is probably 3 or 4 WAR of improvement in Mize/Manning/Skubal....however, there is likely going to be 3 or 4 WAR of regression from the rest of the starting rotation. Other than Mize/Manning/Skubal, and excluding Boyd and Turnbull, since they likely will not pitch in 2022, the rest of the starters from May 8th to the end of 2021 (Alexander, Peralta, Urena, Hutch, Funk) collectively outperformed their peripherals by about 30+ runs allowed, or 3+ WAR. Thus, normal regression from these guys or their replacements will likely offset improvement from Mize/Manning Skubal. The bullpen improved from 2.8 runs/game in the first 33 games (through May 8th) to 2 runs/game from May 8th to the end of 2021.....if this improvement is simply carried into 2022, it could yield a couple of dozen runs saved vs 2021 and 2 - 3 wins or more....however, Fulmer, Funk, Cisnero, Soto, Hutch and Lange all outperformed their peripherals between 0.50 - 1+ runs per 9 innings....the post-May 8th surge for the group could be non-repeatable. I think you could see 5-10 wins of improvement from 1b (Tork) and SS (good FA) and even Greene could pitch in a little....but other injuries and regressions from Grossman and others could cancel out a fair amount of these gains. If they are going for the big-SS, meh-SP and internal improvement strategy, my bet is that they don't hit 85 wins that way. They would likely be at least $10M below the league average salary.....so if they hit 81 - 85 wins, that's an overperformance vs. the team payroll....so there is that victory for the owner anyway, for those who put Chris I's bottom line first.

Very interesting....thanks.

I agree that this is probably what they're going to do, and I also agree that .500 is probably going to be the result. They should aim higher but I don't think they will.

I believe in that as well....at least that's how I've always run my fantasy teams 😃 In all seriousness, if you are going to put your eggs in one basket, Correa doesn't seem like the right guy. If you are adding him to the Yankees or Dodgers, as you said, different story. They also have more holes than AA seems to acknowledge, so spreading the $$ around makes more sense. AA seemed to indicate that he is looking for the following enhancements in 2022: - a quality SP, I'm guessing $15M (let's say 2 WAR improvement vs. Urena) - a very good SS for $25M (let's say 4 WAR improvement vs. Castros) Add $40M to the team payroll and they would be at $118M....still $12M below the league average. Here's what I reasonably think could happen vs. 2021 on the field, in addition to the two FAs (SP and SS) mentioned above: - Mize improves - he was already a 3 win pitcher this year, perhaps he adds 1 WAR? - Manning improves - I could see a 2 more WAR out of him. - Tork and Greene could add 3 wins combined vs. the 2021 guys they would replace (Castros, by way of moving Schoop off 1B, and Reyes/etc. in the OF) if they play more than half a season). - OTOH, they are going to lose 30+ good starts from Boyd and Turnbull that they are going to backfill with ??? like Hutch and whoever else they grab....that could be a 3 WAR loss right there. - and Grossman is likely to regress 1 WAR or so. Put all of the above together and I think they would be an 85 win team. Sprinkle in a key injury or two and they are scuffling to try and hit 81 wins. Even if they expand the playoff format in 2022, the 7th winningest team in the AL in 2021 had 90 wins. And even if SEA was lucky to get to 90 wins, they probably stole a couple of those from OAK, who wound up at 86....so the playoffs in any case looks like a 90+ win threshold....and I think we are 5-10 wins below that with what AA is aiming/hoping for. My hope would be that in addition to a SP and SS, they also acquire another decent SP ($5-7M, add 2 WAR vs. Urena/Hutch), or al least a decent OF ($5-7M, add 2 WAR vs. Reyes), or if failing all of that, a decent RP (again, $5-7M, add 2 WAR vs. various RPs).....they could add two out of three, good enough for about 90 wins if things go well or 85 wins with an injury or two.....and they would still be a couple million $$ either way of league-average-payroll in that scenario. We've had 4 years of tanking and an unexpected rise in 2021 with the only "tank-pick" contribution coming from Mize (3 WAR). We can start adding the high 1st round draft picks in 2022 to the MLB team, move towards a league-average payroll, and contend in 2022.

It *seems* from a distance that he was against the cheating, tried to confront it, but ran up against players that didn't respect him enough, and higher powers who wouldn't back him up....kind of like the Eight Men Out scenario but Commie is with the players. It's a huge chink in his armor and a stain on his record....but if he can win it "clean" with the Tigers he will deserve all of the propers that come his way. If my theory is correct, I would guess that he would lobby against Correa. That's OK with me....while Correa is an amazing player, his health history, involvement in this scandal, and what are sure to be astounding salary demands makes me feel like we can do better overall with Semien or Story.

**** yeah!

Huh...interesting point.

His peripherals prior to 2020 were always a problem, even with the small sample size of 2017 -- low LD and low HR/FB -- in 2020 and 2021 he finally managed to have normal LD and HR/FB %s, which converted him from a huge out-maker. The other and more intriguing thing is the elevated number of doubles in 2020 and 2021....since he doesn't have a high LD, Launch angle, exit velo, or barrel %, or even home/road splits, it seems like the high doubles rate in 2020-21 just sort of "popped in there" and is a special function of his hitting style and peak performance. Since he doesn't rely on any one major hitting factor, *maybe* that makes his current success more sustainable over the long run? Or maybe he will just fade like most guys when he hits 30-32 years of age? I really don't have a good sense at this point.

Candy was a crummy player until 2020 when he hit 26 years of age, and he has hit well for most of his last 830 PAs, except for the 166 PAs in May and June this year when he hit as poorly as he had for the 1000+ PAs in 2018 and 2019 at ages 24 and 25. The point is that he is probably a crummy hitter who is having a nice peak period at the age where peaks happen (26/27). His defense is OK. I'm OK with him for now, but extending him would be extremely foolish.

They handed the ball over 65 times in 2021 to guys who either wont be in rotation in 2022 (Boyd, Turnbull, Fulmer) or who shouldnt be relied on for quality pitching in 2022 (Peralta, Urena, and several others). They also will likely hand the ball to Manning 25+ times in 2022 with the hope that he can get his R/9 under 5, and to Alexander 20-25 times with the hope that he can repeat his decent 10 last starts. To think that we can add JV and rely on him to fill half of the 65 vacant starts at a quality level, and bring back Peralta for the same purpose, seems very unrealistic.

The Home/Road splits for Rockies players are misleading....players adapt to the flatter pitches in Coors from visiting pitchers, and the home adjustment hurts the Rockies hitters' road hitting. Storys Road numbers will improve, and of course his Home numbers will drop, after he leaves Coors....the result will be similar, but with fewer Hrs on flyballs at his new home.

Game over, man.....game over. Literally no point to watching this team for the balance of this season.

Goff looked pretty damn good on that drive.

Grossman was our one good full-time OF this year at 2.6 WAR (only a little above average), it was a career year, and he's turning 33. We'd be lucky to see that again. Baddoo's splits have been discussed. The other guys are either part-timers like Reyes or prospects, and Greene seems like the only future plus full-timer, and he'll probably need a year or three to be a full-time plus player. They desperately need another good FA OFer.

It's certainly the right time to do it. If they are looking at Reyes as a regular player, I would be extremely disappointed.

We handed over 35 starts to hot garbage like Urena, Peralta, and another 30+ starts to guys who won't likely be around or in the rotation in 2022, including Boyd, Turnbull and Fulmer. That's nearly 1/2 of our starts to guys who cannot possibly be counted on for quality starting pitching in 2022....and that's not even talking about the 30+ starts we gave to Manning and Alexander who we hope/expect to be decent or better in 2022. .....and Henning thinks we have a SURPLUS of starting pitching to trade from? We need some upwards development in Manning, Mize, and Alexander, some health luck, and at least TWO new quality starting pitchers to feel confident about contending in 2022. Look, I get that Mize is a RHP who has not yet demonstrated the consistent ability to strike guys out enough to be an above-average pitcher....he needs to get his K's up to the 9/9 ratio or better to be worthy of a top 5 1st rounder. However, at this point, his trade value would seem to be far below his potential value to the team. Unless they are giving up on him, I say keep him and work on getting his FB into reliable plus territory. The off-speed pitches (slider, splitter) seem to be there already.

I agree with this: https://www.prideofdetroit.com/2021/9/27/22695301/lions-fans-wrong-boo-ownership-ruin-calvin-johnson-hall-of-fame?fbclid=IwAR0Bqf3PIUlRbkVcNgu9XRNzdk6d9kbUIpvhqXq7CRa_0HVeg7aQMB-Z_2M It must be satisfying to boo ownership at a certain level, but the extent of it was just embarrassing, and I believe it makes the Ford family a lot less likely to seek an amiable resolution or any resolution that Calvin would want (to the extent that Calvin's interests were even on people's minds when they kept booing and booing). On a day where they lost in an embarrassing and historic way, it just makes it all so Lions. Man I wish this franchise could stop slamming it's fingers in the drawers.

I loved Tiger Stadium. The analysis of it from a hard-headed perspective is silly. It was a place of history. I wound up with some bummer seats every so often, but I mostly got great seats, or tipped the usher to move into better seats as the game wore on. There was nothing to compare with the box seats....lower boxes were incredible, upper boxes were really cool, too.

Absolutely. The Blame the QB crowd was so predictable and stupid.

Yep.

Yes. This is 2004, and we have the Manager in place to make next year more like 2006 than 2005. Considering how far below average our payroll currently is, there should be more than enough $$ available next year to get the 4 types of guys that everybody has been talking about: SS, SP, RP, and another power hitter (nearly any position would work). The FA options are generally in their 30s, so I hope they can keep the terms down to 2 or 3 years at most, unless of course they land one of the plus FA youngsters like Correa. Add to it the probability that at least 1 of the youngsters (Manning, Tork, Greene) can likely contribute something positive (say 1 to 2 WAR) next year, and I see no reason why this team shouldnt shoot for 85-90 wins with an average-ish payroll.

Ah! Yes, that worked....thanks for kickin' it with the old school fix 😀👍

I kept trying to post from my phone over the weekend, and all I got was the circle of death. I know this is a day late and very predictable to say, but here goes anyway: - when Baltimore had the ball 4th and 19 from their own 16 with like 20 seconds left to go down 2 points, all I could think was "how are the Lions going to lose this one?" - when they completed the pass to mid-field, I figured that the best-case scenario was a long FG attempt, but I never thought they'd line up for a bleeding 66 yarder. I was at a restaurant, and I was too far away from the TV to see the play clock run out on the pass attempt. - when they lined up for the 66 yarder, Turner's 61 yarder from 2013 was replayed; that particular replay of ill fate seemed way too poetic to be avoided. - when the kick bounced high off the crossbar and landed on the back-side, it seemed like an extra-special FU to the Lions. - I had not seen the half-time debacle until later in the evening. - Shame on the Lions and Calvin for letting this stupid controversy get to this point....obviously the Lions had every right to demand the $$ back, but obviously they did so in the face of standard practice for star players in the NFL, and the predictable PR nightmare they would face. Calvin was dissed and pissed, as he should be, but he also knows that forcing a showdown with the Ford family basically never ends well, so he had to know his legacy would be more about his feud than his incredible play and generally great personality. - Shame on the fans for making the ceremony such an awful spectacle. I get booing Sheila to some extent, obviously Sheila has not been able to convince herself and her mom/siblings (however the decision-making process works) to pay the $$. But completely drowning her out is a massive and very personal slap in the face that I imagine Sheila and the Ford family will remember forever, as they always do, even when they deserve a slap in the face. Now after being utterly and infamously humiliated in public, the Fords will certainly double-down and forever grimly stick to their guns. This will demonstrate again that no matter what positive changes may occur with the Lions, they are likely to always be a very sclerotic and tone-deaf organization vis a vis the fans as long as the Fords are involved. What a bleeding mess this organization is. Can the personnel side of the FO and Coaching staff overcome the accursed nature of this organization and move it forward? If they do, they should be heralded as the greatest sports management team in history.

Wow! What a great game 👍👍👍👍👍

We are here...it was an amazing robbery