I didn't say it was a crapshoot. Clark has a much better chance of succeeding than Workman or Jung or Hao Yu Lee. It's silly to even talk about that. However, I don't expect him to contribute much in the near future and there is no guarantee of future stardom, much like Torkelson, Greene and Mize when they were coming up. MLB is hard. I think it's unlikely that he becomes a below replacement bust too. In fact, my expectations are close to the ones you mentioned. The range of possible outcomes is wide though.
Don't forget Jobe was universally regarded as one of the top couple of pitching prospects as recently as last year. So, he's not a lot different from Clark in that respect.
How do you view Olson and Jobe?