Tiger337

Is this adjusted for party idenification or any demographics? The results are not useful without adjustments.

yeah, it is. I'm going to steal it.

See, I told you about Montana!

Nope, That would be a sign of weakness in his mind.

Shoot at any of my students and I'm getting involved.

Rural New Hampshire has Trump signs all over the place... On the other hand, the young woman vote is stong at Brandeis University. They probably hate him more than we do here and they will all be voting. 100%. If he wins, they'll be protesting hard for four years.

i read that the Montana is gettng really close.

Silver actually had Trump with a higher probability of winning in 2016 than any other serious poll aggregator. They all underestimatd the probability of Trump winning including Silver. Maybe polls don't work anymore or maybe they need to be adjusted, but he was singled out because he had the biggest name, not because he was more off than anyone else. Statisticians are supposed to say things with uncertainty. They would be lying and not doing their job otherwise.

I have no doubt they would do it if they could get awy with it. I don't think they would take the risk though.

Another thing about multiple posiion players is that they don't play enough at one position to get reliable defensive numbers. So, you can never be very sure about their WAR. I am not sure how to best measure versatility value. Anyway, I think he's fine as a utility player. You just don't want him getting too many at bats.

LOL, MTB was right..

I am surprised they said that. Danielle Alvarez will be fired this week.

What about the voters who didn't like his policy?

He was Vanguard, but the same principles can be applied to other funds. Fidelity (which is the company my employer uses) also has some low cost sp 500 and bond funds where I can invest the same way he told us to do with Vanguard. I do stay on top of it to make sure they are not adding any fees I don't know about. They give me a list of Funds I can choose from and they don't try to make me put my money where I don't want it.

Good point. Trump seems to think he is extremely knowledgeable about every subject and is comfortable throwing around his bull****. Just don't challenge him. He doesn't like that. Harris doesn't give good questions about what she wants to do. Just talking about Trump all the time isn't going to work even though she has characterized him brilliantly

It wouldn't be the first time they made a mistake.

Harris does not speak as well as Obama or Bill Clinton, but she speaks better than Biden or Trump. Her ability to speak is fine. Her problem is that she answers almost every question with something about Trump. Now, preventing Trump from getting into power again may be the most important issue, but you are not going to get people to vote that way.

And I think that turns off a lot of moderates.

Bill James is another one...but I forgive him.

He was demonized before that.

Without the left demonizing previous Republican Presidents and constantly pushing political correctness, Trump doesn't get normalized so easily.

I think George Carlin was the best comedian ever.

Apparently, the Rogan interview was a **** show like every Trump interview https://x.com/KevinlyFather/status/1850255297379749993

I consider Trump to be the enemy just like if we elected Putin. McCain, Romney and even Bush were not even close to Trump in awfulness. I still have hope that enough checks and balances will be in place in America to counter Trump if he wins, but those are eroding too.

It's a two way street. He is easily manipulated. Musk could easily become de facto President in the next four years.