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Everything posted by Tiger337
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And no person nor algorithm can predict injuries especially to pitchers.
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Who is judging them by their record last year?
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Not every 120 game stretch is indicative of a new level of performance though. Players go hot and cold all the time. The projections do assume a career arc where players get better or worse at a certain age. The projections would not assume that Cabrera will reach his career average in 2022. They would assume that he will perform like a former great player who is now 39. I think where the projections can go wrong is with young players. There isn't enough data to know what their careers will look like or how quickly they will break out. The Tigers have a lot of young players which give them uncertainty, but also a lot of opportunity for improvement.
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Last year, it would have been 91 games in the AL, but I think that was an anomaly. I think around 86 wins gives a team a good shot. Edit: This article says 87 wins on average: https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/how-many-wins-will-it-take-to-make-expanded-playoffs/
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I think that is possible if several of the young players break out. I just wouldn't project it. I think they'll be around .500 with a lot of interesting young players going hot and cold. It should be a fun season.
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It is not true that what players did recently is always more important than what they did in the past. Sometimes it is and sometimes it isn't. In most cases, I'd rather take the bigger sample size. Remember Brennan Boesch for example? I want to look at a players entire career. not just the part of his career when he was good. I will say though that projections are only a baseline. You should look at the individual projections for each player and see which ones look too low. Then you can adjust the aggregate accordingly. I don't see how focusing on 120 games will give you a better projection.
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The projections do include individual player statistics from those 120 games. They just don't throw out the first 40 games. What human factors are you considering that wouldn't be picked up by stats? Personally, I think they played over their heads the last 120 games. They had a mediocre bullpen that hardly blew any games. I think there was some luck involved there. The first 40 games were flukey too because every hitter was slumping at the same time. A lot of people give credit to Hinch for the improvement, but wasn't he also the manager at the beginning of the season? I think they'll do better than 74 wins, by the way. I just don't think the improved record at the end of the season should be used to pump up a projection.
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And what do you call throwing out the first 40 games? Just looking at a favorable stretch of 120 games and ignoring 40 unfavorable games will cause bias. I would much rather look at all the games, plus games from previous years.
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Trump has been a disgrace for over 40 years. How so many people can't see through his life long con is beyond me.
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All the projections have them playing below .500. It's a function of having a young team with a lot of question marks. Lots of potential, not a lot of certainty. What they did in their last 120 games last year is not part of the algorithm. Beware of the plexiglasss principle! What matters is what they are expected to do in 2022. I wouldn't look at the 74-88 record though. I would look at each player's individual projection and see where I think they can be better.
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What health issues does he have which would prevent him from running? Americans don't dserve better than Biden and Trump. We are the ones who chose them.
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FanGraphs hates the Tigers. 74-88, last place in AL Central. https://www.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
Matt Olson does not look or sound like an MLB slugger, nor does he look 28 years old. He could blend in as an undergraduate on any college campus.- 1,851 replies
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Biden has wanted this job his entire life. If he's healthy, he'll run.
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
I would just not count tie games in winning percentage.- 1,851 replies
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
and no free base runners.- 1,851 replies
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
I will never be talked into it. I'd rather see a tie than a free runner.- 1,851 replies
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One thing about Avila is when he says he is going to do something he does it. His pre-lockout moves were exactly the ones he said he was planning to make. Something will happen in the next couple of days.
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
Can MLB not go one week without irritating me? I will not watch innings which start with a runner on second base. It is not baseball.- 1,851 replies
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
They would have to give up a lot to get him. He has a liftime 3.72 ERA (123 ERA+) and 9.8 K per game lifetime. That is close to an ace, at least a good #2. I will say though that I had him on my fantasy team last year and watched him frequently last year and I was not impressed. His control was not great and hever looked comfortable and even in his good games he seemed to struggle to get through innings. It made me wonder where his good numbers came from.- 1,851 replies
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How long should the MLB season be? How should the games be divided?
Tiger337 replied to RedRamage's topic in Detroit Tigers
Vegas has already entered the league. -
LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
I heard he was racing bikes with Joel Zumaya.- 1,851 replies
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
I think there would be more independent minor leagues who could occasionally sell players to the major league systems. There wouldn't be a lot of valuable players, but if MLB scales down further, then there might be a few more who sneak through than in the past.- 1,851 replies
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
In theory, it's possible. It's been my observation that the super wealthy run the country and don't have to follow the same rules the rest of us do.- 1,851 replies
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LOCKOUT '22: When will we see baseball again?
Tiger337 replied to Motor City Sonics's topic in Detroit Tigers
He's not more powerful than them at all. Always remember the golden rule. The billionaires tell congress what to do. Congress doesn't tell them what to do.- 1,851 replies