Tiger337

He'll get us more than socks. Maybe some pajamas.

That is accurate, so then you have to calculate the probability of getting a bye. Suppose they have a 60% chance of making playoffs which seems about right looking at last years pre-season odds on fangraphs. Suppose they have a 30% chance of a bye assuming they make the playoffs. Then, they have a 12.5% of winning WS if they have a bye and and 6.25% chance without a bye. P(win)= P(playoffs)*(P(bye/playoffs)*P(win/bye) + P(no bye/playoffs)*P(win/no bye)) = .60 (.30*.125 + .70*.0625) = .04875 or just under 5%

I am not sure winning the World Series makes it more likely he stays, but their chance of winning the World Series is probably a lot lower than 15%. All things being equal, the chance of winning the World Series once you make the playoffs is 1 in 12 or 8% and you have to make the playoffs first.

Greg Maddux also had four consecutive, but it came earlier

Not his fault. He got bad advice from Bobby Higginson.

I agree

That gets back to the local fan thing you were talking about. Fans don't care what happens to other teams. I think the problem with the Dodgers being too good is overblown. Regardless of who wins, the fans of 96.7% of teams are going to be disappointed. That is going to be true regardless of whether or not there is parity.

Oh well...Amazing game though. Now, back to some serious roster talk!

He's too slow to get injured?

true

Do we know that framing statistics are the result of framing or could it be something else? For example, perhaps some teams know that you need to pitch to certain locations way with a certain umpire behind the plate? I know that framing is part of it, but maybe not as much as we think.

Of course not, but odds are being made now. As of now, I wouldn't project the Tigers to finish behind the Orioles. Then again, the betting odds likely look at things a very different way than I would.

They've still got quite a bit of young talent that could develop, but it seems a stretch to project them higher than the Tigers.

I don't know if it's REALLY low, but it's on the low side. I could easily see them finishing 7th behind Tor, NY, Bos, Cle, Sea, Hou. I guess another team like kansas City could sneak in there.

That is my understanding as well. Batters are going to challenge called strikes that they believe were out of the zone. It's likely that some of those pitchers were framed. Pitchers/Catchers will challenge called balls that they believe were in the zone. Those were pitches that were not helped framing. There may be some unitended consequence which I'm not thinking about, but it seems likeframing would become less valuable.

This was one of my favorite games ever and the Tigers didn't even win. It was the night Gibson hit the ball over the roof in one at bat and then later tripled and scored when he knocked down the homeplate umpire. It was an exciting display of power, speed and boldness unlike anything I had never seen from the Tigers before. https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=607993830328466

He's a quality player and we are pleased to add him to our ballclub.

He's very good at managementspeak. Dombrowski was the king of managementspeak. He somehow managed to do it with a flair.

I loved the Heinz museum. I wasn't planning on going, but I happened to be staying at the hotel across the street. It is a really nice city in general. It was a pleasant surprise.

I don't really have a good handle on how to measure the value of catcher defense because the pitcher management part is such an unknown. Pitcher management could be really big or it could be BS, probably depending on pitcher/catcher duos and the manager. I think it's still the biggest unkown in player value analysis, but I get the sense that Rogers is valued beyond the available stats which I of course can not prove.

I think Rogers will be kept. You need to have a proven catch and throw guy as back-up catcher. Rogers can't hit, but Nido's track record as a hitter is no better.

The Tigers played .636 ball in games in which appeared this year. That's a 103-win pace. Things like that don't happen by accident.

I am still not completely convinced about Keith. He is trending in the right direction, but he faced mostly right handers this year and is not a strong fielder so far.

And he didn't even include Jung!

Momentum is as good as the next day's starting pitcher.