Tiger337

I have seen that argument made here by mutiple posters here. Not quite as strong as I just said it, but I have seen many posts stating that there will be more people switching from Trump to Harris than the other way around. I would not assume that.

55% favorite is not big at all. 70% was not even that big and people were wrong to assume that she had it wrapped up. It is concerning that Trump has never been in the lead at this point. In fact, he has been down substantially before the last two elections and he outperformed the polls. It's a sample size of two though, so there is no reason to assume that the trend will continue. On the other hand, those who are saying that Harris will win because Biden won in 2020 and nobody will switch from Biden/Harris to Trump is also a weak assumption. I personally know people that are switching. A lot of people blame Biden for a bad economy (even though it's pretty good right now) and they see Harris as an extension of Biden. Others may not want to vote for Harris because she's a woman or because they think she is too radical (the reason why one of my friends is switching).

The polls indicate that it will be a close election. I don't think betting markets are good indicator anymore since I've read that they are being driven by a small number of wealthy betters. The biggest one lives in France.

I don't think he's trolling, but all Trump supporters ALWAYS think he's going to win.

Because he is MAGA. Every MAGA without exception thinks he is going to win. They thought that in 2020 too. Like you, I really don't know who's going to win. I am expecting a close election and a huge **** show dragging into 2025.

Thanks for the info. Nobody needs to vote now, since it's been determined already. That's disappointing.

Giuliani has some serious mental health problems.

I unfollowed Jed because he posted too much stupid stuff on Twitter. He is nothing like BST at all. BST was witty. He also never posted in the Tigers forum and JED rambles about the Tigers constantly. Not the same person.

My impression based on everything I have read about Bregman suggests he would be a great Hinch fit. The concern about him is a potential prohibitive contract length.

I don't remember the discussion going viral. I just see it in the hiking forum a lot and every experienced hiker agrees that men are more of a threat than bears.

I'm in a hiking group online, and I've heard women (and men too) say they are afraid of bears. The reality is they need to be a afraid of creepy men a lot more than bears or any other animal.

I care about what happened over 90 years ago in Germany.

Pump and Dump. Any retail investor that touches DJT is a fool.

At least Harris gave a great speech tonight. She is mediocre at interviews, but she can sure deliver a speech.

I just saw that. What a moronic thing to say.

This aint Venezuela. He'll do damage, but I don't think killing our democracy will be that easy.

He didn't **** things up in the eyes of the masses. If he is given free reign, it will be more noticeable.

I think if Trump wins, he is going to **** things up so bad with no reasonable people like Kelly, Mattis, etc to keep him under control. It's going to be a miserable four years and then the Democrats will crush the Republicans across the board in 28. Obviously, I'd rather not go through that though!

This doesn't seem like a great message to be sending to potential voters a week before the election. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kaboom-elon-musk-predicts-hardship-economic-turmoil-and-a-stock-market-crash-if-trump-wins-20483008?mod=home-page "Billionaire Musk, Trump’s would-be budget-cutting and government-efficiency czar, also says there will be “no special cases” and “no exceptions” when he starts slashing federal spending after Trump takes office." "And he predicts he will need “a lot of security” personally because of the likely reaction to his policy moves." "Musk promised deep federal budget cuts, austerity and economic pain ahead in a new Trump administration." “We have to reduce spending to live within our means,” Musk said. “That necessarily involves some temporary hardship but it will ensure long-term prosperity.” "On his social-media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, he went further and agreed with a supporter who predicted “an initial severe overreaction in the economy” and that “Markets will tumble.”

High turn out is probably the most positive predictor for Harris.

My organization often works directly with and gets grants from a few of those agencies, so we are very worried about that.

Yes, that is an option, but I thought that was one of Gehringer's choices. I may have misread it.

I am expecting a **** show as bad as 2020.

What CES is saying is exactly what I'm hoping for.

(c) the national polling models are correct and it's going to be a really close election with no clear winner. (d) the national models are wrong in the same way they were in 2016 and 2020 and Trump is going to win. At any rate, MTB flooding the forum with sunshine results for the Democrats does not increase my confidence in Harris winning. My default predicton is that Harrs will win a close race bcause Americans can't be that dumb, but they've disappointed me before!