Tiger337

I just saw that. What a moronic thing to say.

This aint Venezuela. He'll do damage, but I don't think killing our democracy will be that easy.

He didn't **** things up in the eyes of the masses. If he is given free reign, it will be more noticeable.

I think if Trump wins, he is going to **** things up so bad with no reasonable people like Kelly, Mattis, etc to keep him under control. It's going to be a miserable four years and then the Democrats will crush the Republicans across the board in 28. Obviously, I'd rather not go through that though!

This doesn't seem like a great message to be sending to potential voters a week before the election. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/kaboom-elon-musk-predicts-hardship-economic-turmoil-and-a-stock-market-crash-if-trump-wins-20483008?mod=home-page "Billionaire Musk, Trump’s would-be budget-cutting and government-efficiency czar, also says there will be “no special cases” and “no exceptions” when he starts slashing federal spending after Trump takes office." "And he predicts he will need “a lot of security” personally because of the likely reaction to his policy moves." "Musk promised deep federal budget cuts, austerity and economic pain ahead in a new Trump administration." “We have to reduce spending to live within our means,” Musk said. “That necessarily involves some temporary hardship but it will ensure long-term prosperity.” "On his social-media platform X, formerly known as Twitter, he went further and agreed with a supporter who predicted “an initial severe overreaction in the economy” and that “Markets will tumble.”

High turn out is probably the most positive predictor for Harris.

My organization often works directly with and gets grants from a few of those agencies, so we are very worried about that.

Yes, that is an option, but I thought that was one of Gehringer's choices. I may have misread it.

I am expecting a **** show as bad as 2020.

What CES is saying is exactly what I'm hoping for.

(c) the national polling models are correct and it's going to be a really close election with no clear winner. (d) the national models are wrong in the same way they were in 2016 and 2020 and Trump is going to win. At any rate, MTB flooding the forum with sunshine results for the Democrats does not increase my confidence in Harris winning. My default predicton is that Harrs will win a close race bcause Americans can't be that dumb, but they've disappointed me before!

Yes, but what is the gap? The point is you listed polls where Harris is ip by 20 points and there is no way she is leading by that much. I can't tell whether those are good results without seeing context.

Sure, but they are certainly useless without them. Of course Harris is winning big in early voing. Republicans like to vote on election day.

Is this adjusted for party idenification or any demographics? The results are not useful without adjustments.

yeah, it is. I'm going to steal it.

See, I told you about Montana!

Nope, That would be a sign of weakness in his mind.

Shoot at any of my students and I'm getting involved.

Rural New Hampshire has Trump signs all over the place... On the other hand, the young woman vote is stong at Brandeis University. They probably hate him more than we do here and they will all be voting. 100%. If he wins, they'll be protesting hard for four years.

i read that the Montana is gettng really close.

Silver actually had Trump with a higher probability of winning in 2016 than any other serious poll aggregator. They all underestimatd the probability of Trump winning including Silver. Maybe polls don't work anymore or maybe they need to be adjusted, but he was singled out because he had the biggest name, not because he was more off than anyone else. Statisticians are supposed to say things with uncertainty. They would be lying and not doing their job otherwise.

I have no doubt they would do it if they could get awy with it. I don't think they would take the risk though.

Another thing about multiple posiion players is that they don't play enough at one position to get reliable defensive numbers. So, you can never be very sure about their WAR. I am not sure how to best measure versatility value. Anyway, I think he's fine as a utility player. You just don't want him getting too many at bats.

LOL, MTB was right..

I am surprised they said that. Danielle Alvarez will be fired this week.