MichiganCardinal

I’m headed downtown for the STM Draft Party. Look for me if it’s televised, I’m wearing a Lions sweatshirt.

I think the intelligent fans (including those who frequent this site) won’t lose their mind. There will be dissent but I think there will be a general understanding (assuming it’s Walker or Thibs over Hutch). The drunk uncle who clamored for Orlovsky/Hill/Daniel/etc. over Stafford every Thanksgiving for a decade will loudly hate it, but I try not to listen to them anyway.

Before the Ohio State game, KT was universally crowned as the best edge rusher in the class. Since then, his drop in perception - however small it may be - seems to have come from rumors and speculation rather than performance. It’s not as if he’s been injured or if some bombshell exploit has come out. It’s been behind the scenes people throwing it at the wall about him not loving football. And if that’s evaluated to be nonsense, I see no reason to not continue to value him above Hutch. Realistically, I don’t think there is a “wrong” answer in any of Walker, Hutch, and Thibs.

That’s what I mean though. Matt Nelson filled that role last year really well for the Lions. We acquired him as a 2019 UDFA. If we are just looking for someone to fill that role, we shouldn’t look higher than a 6th round pick. If we are looking for a red zone threat though, I’m perfectly okay with 3rd round or later.

I wouldn’t mind it. Coming into this whole thing, Thibs was the universal #1. In fact, he was the universal #1 for a while, until everyone started overanalyzing everything (as happens every draft). If Holmes and Campbell are not worried about all the off the field rumors, and Sewell gave them a positive report, then I think it makes sense. By many accounts, Thibs has a higher ceiling than Hutch.

Subject to some changes before tomorrow, but this is probably my final version:

Decent blocking TEs practically grow on trees. They’re almost never one-on-one with the defender they’re blocking at the point of attack and if they are one-on-one downfield, it’s in a similar position as a wide receiver would be in. Even if the Lions are considering using more six-lineman fronts with a TE instead of an OT (like they did some with Matt Nelson last year), any draftable TE prospect should be able to fill that role. There is no reason to expend a draft selection solely for a blocking TE when they’ll be playing aside Sewell and Decker. If blocking is all we need, we should look to sign a quality UDFA or draft a 7th rounder like Noah Gindorff or Cole Turner. That said, I think having a good blocking TE who can also be a red zone threat would be a great compliment to Hock. I don’t think we should look to take a TE before 97. At 97 and beyond though, if Otton/Ruckert/Ferguson are there, they can be a really strong addition to the offense.

One for fun... And one more realistic...

I would like to see MLB discipline the Yankees organization as well. A game or two in an empty stadium, or loss of the ability to sell alcohol for a week would send a message to not just the knuckleheads who needed to make it all about them, but to every franchise and every fan of baseball that this won't be tolerated. If it's not intrinsic, you have to create an environment against anyone doing this in the future. Want a beer at your next game? Point out the loser who threw his and don't join in.

If the Lions wanted to trade Decker and pick (insert OT here) I’m okay with that, but they need to do it in that order if that’s their plan. If you select Neal or Ekwonu with Decker and Sewell here, you’re creating a Baker Mayfield type problem (with a better player), where other teams know you need to get rid of him, thereby lowering Decker’s trade value.

I think everything Holmes has done this offseason tells you they will not be in the market for Deebo.

I’m starting to like Thibs a little more than Walker at #2. I’m not turned off to Walker like I am some of the non-edge prospects. It feels though that as the draft cycle runs it’s course, we are back to where we started with Thibs clearly being the best natural pass rusher in the draft. Keep it simple and take him if he’s there.

I think they should have "given up and tanked" before acquiring Adams. I agree they can't really change their minds afterwards, but I think extending Carr like this is just prolonging the amount of time they'll spend in NFL purgutory,

I think their better option was to not try and engage in the current arms race occurring in their division and to launch a rebuild. I don’t think Carr is ever going to win them a Super Bowl. He might not actively lose them games, but he’s not good enough to carry the team to postseason success. Sell assets and go for one of Stroud/Young next year, or kick the Carr can down the line on a one or two year deal if you can’t get them. Not at $40MM a year though. At that point, sure, take Mayfield or any other filler.

I like the idea of Okudah finally living up to half of his expectations and being the second of that lethal combo.

Quite the gamble they’re taking on arguably the worst QB in their division.

I think Hock has the ceiling to be a borderline top five TE in the league. I take his stats from last year with a grain of salt, considering both his injury and the fact that he was the only offensive weapon on the team until we acquired Reynolds and St. Brown emerged.

Kiper is the ultimate weatherman. Paid obscene amounts to throw shit at the wall without consequence when he is wrong 99% of the time. At least the weathermen have scientific backing.

I trust Campbell’s judgement on character. I think the jury is still out on Campbell regarding player development, but I have no doubt he is a good guy. If he thinks he and the team can work with Thibs, I trust that he can. If he doesn’t think he can, I don’t think anyone could.

A conditional 2040 7th round pick… the condition being that our selection has to be enshrined in Canton prior to 2040.

I actually like Jermaine Johnson a lot, and if the pick were at 10 instead of 2, I would be all aboard taking him. He legitimately could end up being the best edge rusher in this class. Taking him at 2 though screams "smartest guy in the room" to me.

I thought between the lines Campbell was a little more “party line” than it would appear by Birkett’s tweet (not Birkett’s fault he only gets so many characters). Campbell also mentions within the interview that if they feel someone (particularly Willis) is good enough, they’ll take them despite that desire for a day one starter, which I think is true. I don’t think they’ll take Willis at #2 though. I hope another team will though.

You could put Patrick Mahomes or Tom Brady on this team and the ceiling would still be in the ballpark of .500. Quinn and his genius sidekick left us needing to find or develop somewhere around 16-19 starters, including every single position on defense, in order to compete for the playoffs. When Stafford wanted out, that added yet another. As you crawl out of that gaping lack of talent, if the QB of the team described above is not so incredibly bad that they are limiting the development of your young offensive core, they're doing just fine. Goff had his moments last year where he was bordered on being that bad, when he was playing through injury. He also had his moments though, especially towards the end of the season, where he looked considerably better than that very low bar. I would be (pleasantly!) surprised if Goff is the starting QB on the team that takes the Lions where they haven't been in 30+ years. That doesn't mean they need to rush to find someone to replace him at the expense of plugging one of those many other holes with an instant starter.

So many mocks are lazily slapped together, I put weight into very few of them. Those talking heads just plug-and-play with perceived needs and their master prospect list. Seldom does it take into account any actual insight as to the individual teams’ thought processes.

Where I’m at right now… Almost any trade down would get an A+… Hutch/Thib/Walker would get an A-… Willis would get a B-…. Hamilton would get a C-… A corner or any offensive lineman would get a D…. A trade up would get an F. Those are the names I’ve heard most.