MichiganCardinal

Trade heavy and would set an NFL draft record for QBs, but I'm sticking to my guns RE Lions. My Mock Draft 2.2 1. Tennessee Titans (Trade w/ CHI): CJ Stroud, QB, Ohio State 2. Houston Texans: Bryce Young, QB, Alabama 3. Indianapolis Colts (Trade w/ ARI): Will Levis, QB, Kentucky 4. Arizona Cardinals (Trade w/ IND): Tyree Wilson, EDGE, Texas Tech 5. Carolina Panthers (Trade w/ SEA from DEN): Anthony Richardson, QB, Florida 6. Detroit Lions (from LAR): Will Anderson, EDGE, Alabama 7. Las Vegas Raiders: Jalen Carter, DT, Georgia 8. Atlanta Falcons: Joey Porter Jr., CB, Penn State 9. Seattle Seahawks (Trade w/ CAR): Myles Murphy, EDGE, Clemson 10. Philadelphia Eagles: Devon Witherspoon, CB, Illinois 11. Chicago Bears (Trade w/ CHI): Peter Skoronski, OT, Northwestern 12. Houston Texans (from CLE): Quentin Johnston, WR, TCU 13. New York Jets: Paris Johnson, OT, Ohio State 14. New England Patriots: Tyler Steen, OT, Alabama 15. Green Bay Packers: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon 16. Washington Commanders: Brian Branch, DB, Alabama 17. Pittsburgh Steelers: O’Cyrus Torrence, OG, Florida 18. Detroit Lions: Bijan Robinson, RB, Texas 19. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland 20. Seattle Seahawks: Mazi Smith, DT, Michigan 21. Los Angeles Chargers: Cam Smith, CB, South Carolina 22. Baltimore Ravens: Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Ohio State 23. Minnesota Vikings: Lukas Van Ness, EDGE, Iowa 24. Jacksonville Jaguars: Trenton Simpson, LB, Clemson 25. New York Giants: Jordan Addison, WR, USC 26. Dallas Cowboys: Cedric Tillman, WR, Tennessee 27. Buffalo Bills: Josh Downs, WR, North Carolina 28. Cincinnati Bengals: Michael Mayer, TE, Notre Dame 29. New Orleans Saints (from DEN thru SF): Isaiah Foskey, EDGE, Notre Dame 30. Philadelphia Eagles: Tuli Tuipuloto, EDGE, USC 31. Kansas City Chiefs: Will McDonald, EDGE, Iowa State Lions 2.18 - Antonio Johnson, DB, Texas A&M 2.26 - Darnell Washington, TE, Georgia 3.18 - Jack Campbell, LB, Iowa 5.18 - Nick Broeker, OG, Ole Miss 6.5 (from DEN) - Jake Moody, K, Michigan 6.18 - Rashad Torrence, DB, Florida

Bold move advocating for your team to trade for your replacement. Not that I'm against it.

I agree with everything you said, but I think he may benefit from the market. There are not a lot of options out there at WR this offseason, he's probably a top three option with Jakobi Meyers and Robert Woods, and he's only 26. I could see him being the Christian Kirk of this offseason and getting a large three or four-year contract from the Bears or Texans that isn't necessarily a smart move for an injury prone guy. I'm not sure I would want to do anything longer than a year or two unless there were very favorable outs for when we need to start signing the 2021 draft to long-term deals, and I'm not sure Chark would want to do another short-term deal if the market has longer options out there. The more injuries he sustains on short deals, the less he will make on future deals.

McVay is a prick. I think it was pretty widely known even before the trade that he didn't like or believe in Goff, based largely off of a postseason where Goff was playing with a broken and dislocated thumb on his throwing hand. That's not going to be a workable dynamic between HC and QB.

I agree with this. The comparison is far from perfect. Goff and Wentz will never escape the comparisons though beings that they went #1 and #2, and their career paths to some point have been kind of strikingly similar... I will say for the sake of comparing 2019 Wentz to 2022 Goff, Wentz finished 5th in Comeback Player of the Year voting in 2019. Goff finished 6th this year.

When the Eagles drafted Hurts, they were called stupid by a lot of people because Carson Wentz had just put up career numbers. The Lions know better than any of us whether Goff’s 2022 numbers are an expectation of things to come or an anomaly. I hope they are a sign of things to come and we don’t need another QB for a long time.

Holmes has earned the right to draft someone like Richardson without me losing my mind. Particularly if he goes into free agency and picks up Bobby Wagner and Jamel Dean (for instance). At that point, between your other four picks in the first three rounds, you have your starting 22 (and possibly then some). It’s a needle many have tried to thread and few have done successfully. Between not throwing Goff off of his game in the immediacy, developing Richardson to be better than Goff, and then transitioning Richardson into the starting role, things can go wrong in a lot of different ways. Ask Jordan Love, Trey Lance, and any number of 2nd round QBs taken through the years. On the other hand, you could get Pat Mahomes or Jalen Hurts if it goes well.

I’m not going to be upset if the Lions pick Richardson, but I would be surprised. I put it at 1-5% chance of happening.

I think I would rather Wagner. When Walker went out last season, it felt like the defense lost their sense of leadership. I think Wagner would instantly become the Kenny Rogers to our 06 Tigers.

Anzalone wouldn’t cost very much. Wagner would cost a a lot for a linebacker, but on a two-year deal, that money could potentially be off the books by the time you have to sign your current rookies long-term.

I like Bobby Wagner.

I don’t think the right attitude is to completely ignore the salary cap, because that’s how you turn into the 2022 Saints. At the same time, good teams don’t let the cap get in the way of their signing free agents and re-signing the players they want to. It seems to be a bit of a dance with restructuring other deals to make things work. Make smart deals, don’t overpay, but don’t be afraid of making the right moves either.

Just makes you wonder why he keeps getting looks. He’s Belichick’s buddy, which explains the Patriots gigs and the Lions gig…. But anything beyond a non-descript “analyst” with no real responsibilities elsewhere is mind-boggling.

Has he ever been a good coach anywhere? Even when he was the Pats DC, they were just okay and got smoked in the Super Bowl.

I will say, the discussion surrounding the relative usefulness of early to mid round tight ends to the offensive scheme is a welcomed change of pace from most off-seasons where we are at each other’s throats about whether to fire everybody (again) and start over (again).

Insanity then and insanity now.

Holmes made the comment after the trade that they would have traded Hock if they were 6-1 or 1-6. I think he was being at least a little flippant with that comment, but I don't think the regime was ever interested in re-signing Hockenson long-term. Whether that means they don't value the position of a primarily pass-catching TE at all, or whether it means they just don't value paying $15MM plus AAV for that position, or whether it means they don't value paying TJ Hockenson $15MM plus AAV, remains to be seen. If I had to guess it would be a combination of #2 and #3. Meaning they're cool with having a TE on a rookie deal who can catch passes, and they're maybe cool with paying a Travis Kelce type a big contract if they have him, but they're not going to pay big money to Hock, who is not and will never be Kelce.

Fair enough. We are on the same page there then. I too would much prefer Washington to Mayer. I think he fits the team better, has a higher ceiling, and will be available in the 2nd, maybe even 3rd round.

You can take out the one sentence about scouting reports I’ve seen and everything else is just factual (180-reception 1st round prospect TE from Notre Dame vs. 7-reception undrafted TE from Notre Dame).

No offense but you can have him.

I was between LB and OG with the 3rd round pick. I think there will be both good guards and linebackers available in the 3rd round. Not Micah Parsons good, but good enough to rotate in with Rodrigo and Anzalone if he's brought back.

I wouldn't completely rule out taking a TE relatively high, for the same reasons I wouldn't rule out taking a RB. Though the positional value isn't immense, the relative value of adding to the offense is greater than adding to the defense, and with five picks across the first three rounds, you have some capital to play with. I don't think it will happen in the 1st round barring a trade back though, because I don't think the value is there with any of the TEs at 18. I would love to see someone like Darnell Washington be considered in the 2nd or 3rd though. He is a 6'7"/270lb beast of a blocker in the run game that can go up and catch the ball too. He may fall to the mid-2nd or 3rd round only because of the depth at the position in this draft class and his receiving production at Georgia having been overshadowed by other TEs at Georgia (notably Brock Bowers). I think he is TE1 easily if he went to a Big Ten school. Washington lined up next to Sewell or Decker could take our outside run game to the next level, in addition to being a threat in the air. EDGE or DT / RB / CB / TE / OG in the first three rounds, alongside a free agent CB1, sets up the offense to be elite and the defense to be average to good, and that's all you need to be a very competitive team in the NFL.

No they’re not. Both went to Notre Dame and that’s where similarities end. Brock Wright is a blocking tight end. He had 7 career receptions at ND and was on no one’s radar as a draftable prospect. He was signed as a UDFA and had to claw his way onto a roster spot by being a nasty SOB in the blocking game. And later showing an ability to catch the wide open pass. Michael Mayer is a a pure pass-catching TE who set a ND record for career receptions out of that position with 180. In the scouting reports I’ve seen for him, the critique has been in his blocking abilities, that he’s seen more as a catch first, block only if I have to TE. If you want to argue the latter (Mayer’s) position isn’t really necessary in the Lions offense because of the creativity in scheming open the TEs they have, I think there is an argument to be made. Plenty of offenses are potent without a world-beating early round TE receiving threat. But they’re vastly different players.

I’m not necessarily opposed to it, but I also think there is something to be said for the production they got out of Wright last season. Blocking tight ends grow on trees and if they can scheme those guys into good situations there’s no need to spend capital on it. They also drafted an injured James Mitchell last year and I think he could get a chance to earn TE1 in camp this summer.

I agree with all of this, particularly your last paragraph, but I think it's possible you're understating the importance of offense in 2023's NFL. All else being equal, where you are faced with solid not spectacular options, I think it makes sense to take an offensive player and try to put your offense into the elite tier of the NFL. I won't go so far as to say they should win games 50-49, but we did just see a Super Bowl where the Chiefs won because they were the last team to score in a game with 73 combined points. A solid not spectacular RB who can break a tackle and take it to the house one time in the course of a game could be the difference in winning or losing a game more often than it is likely to be the case that a DT makes a game-winning sack. I also think it's much more likely against the best of the best teams in the NFL that you're going to find yourself in a shootout, even if your defense is good. Offenses are just that much better in 2023 that it's unrealistic to hold the best of the best to 21 points.