MichiganCardinal

I'll give you the Packers game, because there was certainly a degree of turnover luck that helped us get that win... The Bears have lost 8 in a row though. They've gone two months without a win while the Lions have beaten multiple playoff contenders in that time. The Lions shut down the likes of Dalvin Cook and Saquon Barkley, and contained Devin Singletary, before being lit up by the Panthers on a short week with questionable field conditions. I get some recency bias, but a return to the mean seems much more likely than the sky falling on the Lions run defense. The Lions took about ten steps forward in the last two months and a couple steps back on Saturday. I don't think we should ignore the net gain.

I guess it helps to preface my response by saying that I thought preseason this would be a 9-8 team that could win a playoff game. So generally I think they’re a pretty good team, or have the capacity to be one. If someone else thinks they should be a 5-win team or a 7-win team, I can understand being more pessimistic about these last two games. That said, when they started 1-6 I’m not going to pretend like I still thought they would finish 9-8. I just think they’re a very young team that is going to have a few clunkers along the way. They got away with playing poorly against the Jets and they’ve had two real clunkers - the Patriots and the Panthers. Any given Sunday, I think they’re a better team than either the Bears or the Packers. They did beat each of those teams earlier in the season. I still wouldn’t say it’s likely they win them both, but I give them an 80% chance to beat the Bears and a 50% chance to beat the Packers in Lambeau. Together that’s 40% to win both. Which is about the same I would put at them making the playoffs because I think it’s even less likely either the Seahawks or Commies go 2-0.

Couldn’t even make it to Black Monday

In fairness, if it weren't for Ragnow's injury last year, followed by Big V's injury in preseason, he wouldn't be a starter. Kudos to him for staying healthy, which isn't easy on our offensive line for some reason. He's done well enough for himself for being a 6th offensive lineman. Let someone else pay him how Quinn did Big V though.

Agreed but the same is true of the game against the Patriots, and we haven't seen the lack of effort shown against the Patriots since... I think it was actually encouraging that they made it closer at the end against the Panthers. That game could have been a 30-point blowout easily. I think their effort last week is more indicative of how hard it is to win in the NFL, combined with a short and weird travel week due to the weather, combined with a very young team. They just simply weren't going to win six in a row, or nine of ten. I think we see a return to the median these last two weeks. Maybe not domination like we saw against the Jaguars, but a return to what we saw against the Giants, Bills, and Vikings.

The 180 I've seen from pundits on the Lions playoff chances after last week seems a bit extreme. It's dropped maybe 10%. They don't control their own destiny, but it's not like the teams they need to lose are the Chiefs and Bills. I'd be very surprised if they lose this game to the Bears. I think they'll be ready to go and the Bears already appear to be looking to 2023. They gave up against the Bills. Fields may break a run or two, but I don't think they'll be able to keep up with the Detroit offense in a dome. Swift was limited in the first game in Chicago, and Reynolds was out. Detroit should have no problem scoring if they can hang onto the ball. Meanwhile Seattle has lost five of their last six and is about to play a Jets team, possibly with Mike White returning, that is in a very similar playoff position as Detroit... Washington hasn't won a game since late November, and is playing a Browns team that has Deshaun Watson and would have no problem ruining some playoff aspirations. Even the Giants - with one win in their last six games - playing the Colts is no gimme. It wouldn't shock me at all to see Seattle and Washington lose while Detroit and Green Bay win, to setup a win-and-you're-in situation for Week 18 in Lambeau.

vs. Setting: 01/01/2023 1:00pm EST on FOX Site: Ford Field in Detroit, MI Weather: Climate Controlled Opening Spread: Lions -5 All-Time Series Record: Bears lead 104-76-5 Last Meeting: 11/13/2022, Lions won 31-30 Chicago Bears (3-12) Head Coach: Matt Eberflus (1st Season: 3-12) Projected Starting QB: Justin Fields (2nd Season: 5-20) Last Week: 35-13 L vs. Buffalo Bills (12-3) Looking Ahead to Week #18: TBD v. Minnesota Vikings (12-3) Your Detroit Lions (7-8) Head Coach: Dan Campbell (2nd Season: 10-21-1) Projected Starting QB: Jared Goff (7th Season: 52-45-1) Last Week: 37-23 L @ Carolina Panthers (6-9) Looking Ahead to Week #18: TBD @ Green Bay Packers (7-8) Elsewhere in the NFL Primetime: Cowboys @ Titans (TNF), Steelers @ Ravens (SNF), Bills @ Bengals (MNF) 1:00pm: Cardinals @ Falcons, Jaguars @ Texans, Broncos @ Chiefs, Dolphins @ Patriots, Colts @ Giants, Saints @ Eagles, Panthers @ Buccaneers, Browns @ Commanders 4:05/4:25pm: 49ers @ Raiders, Jets @ Seahawks, Vikings @ Packers, Rams @ Chargers

I think it’s likely to get flexed if Detroit beats the Bears.

He’s also a bad football player.

May very well be heading towards a winner goes situation in Green Bay.

I misspoke about what needs to occur, but I still think it’s plenty possible. 2-0 plus two of NY going 0-2, Seattle going 1-1 or worse, and Washington going 1-1 or worse. 6-seed if all four occur. 1-1 plus Seattle and Washington going 0-2. I would still put it somewhere in the ballpark of 30-40%. I like the Lions odds against the Bears and Packers more than the Seahawks against the Jets or the Commies against the Cowboys. I still wouldn’t rule out a collapse by New York either. In any event though, agreed about it being a great second half.

I don’t know if unlikely is the word I would use for them making the playoffs at this point. They’re better than the Bears and the Packers. I’d give them an 80% chance to beat the Bears and 50ish % to beat the Packers, only because it’s away. The Seahawks have the Jets and Rams. Geno Smith has fallen back down to Earth and will struggle to score against both of those teams. Washington has the Browns, who they should beat but who won’t die without a fight, and the Cowboys, who are playing for seeding. They’re also not very good. I don’t think it would be crazy that they go a combined 1-3 in those four games, in which case the Lions would make it at 1-1, and be the 6-seed at 2-0. I would put the Lions odds of making it closer to a tossup than unlikely. That all said, the word I would use is gravy. Making the playoffs would be gravy.

Remember when you entertain out of town relatives tomorrow: only WE can make fun of the Lions. We’ve earned the right.

I think we will see a very quick return to the run defense we knew when we are back in the warmth of the home dome. Fields on the other hand…

A couple duds a year may turn out to be a part of the Dan Campbell era. Eagles and Bengals last year. Pats and Panthers this year. I’m okay with a couple of duds if you go 12-3 in the other 15 lol

How was there no safety help on 3/13??

Panthers offense is really a one trick pony with the run, but it’s the only trick they’ve needed

This should cool the talk of Aaron Glenn as Head Coach for at least a week

If I need to make a statement that one of my 1822 posts here was stupid I’m ready and able. Only one though, not conceding any others. 😉

For a beat it sure felt like the Lions could take over this game. The D made a stop, they were driving, about to go up 7… and then the turnover happened and it’s been all Panthers since. Just can’t happen.

Odds of winning against the Bears and Packers!! Not odds of making the playoffs!

You’re not missing anything. It’s a gut thing that they were bound to lose and will play better off a loss than this magical streak continuing. Obviously their playoff odds are better with a win.

24-14 would feel a lot different getting the ball after half. Ragnow can’t make that mistake. As it stands I wouldn’t be surprised if this is another Bengals/Eagles blow out from last year, Patriots blow out from this yearZ

I still like the Lions odds against the Bears and Packers. Honestly I might like their odds more if they lose today. Washington will lose at least one to the Browns and Cowboys. They’re not good. Seahawks might lose both games against the Jets and Rams. They’ve fallen off a cliff. It’s not over with a loss.

RT moved early on that