MichiganCardinal

A change from a few days ago but I think I’d most prefer to play the Commanders. Then the Vikings, then the Packers, then the Rams. I really think they’d beat any of these four teams, but I think the Rams are the type of team you have the least room for error. Coming off a bye week, I don’t want to come out a little cold and have it burn us. They also have the best QB of the four. The Packers are so bipolar that I don’t trust them. If I knew I was getting the Packers team that lost to Minnesota and Chicago to end the season, they’d be my preferred opponent. But when we might get the team that went 12 rounds with us on Thursday Night Football a month ago, no thanks. The Vikings would play us closer than they did last week, but I think Goff has that defense figured out to a large extent. They were out of synch for a number of drives but had no problem turning it on late. I’m pretty confident the Lions would win this one again. The Commanders can have a good offense, with a mobile QB, which initially gave me some pause. But their run defense is atrocious, and makes me think that game might not be all that close. In their last three games they’ve given up 211 to the Eagles, 211 to the Falcons, and 228 yards to the Cowboys. On the season, they’ve allowed more rush yards per game than all but Carolina and New Orleans. I think it would be water vs. sieve with our offensive line, and Daniels would have a lot of trouble keeping up.

It's interesting, and obviously noteworthy to home, but Fraley has never been a play caller at any level. I'm not sure it would be a good move for a defensive-minded head coach like Macdonald to promote an OL coach to OC. I figured it would make more sense for Johnson to take Fraley with him, if Fraley wanted an OC job.

Maybe I'm crazy, but I really think the Steelers will give the Ravens a game on Saturday. The teams split the season series, which in and of itself should tell you the spread of Ravens -10 is ridiculous, but on top of that the game that the Steelers lost three weeks ago, Pickens was out with an injury. The Ravens run defense is possibly the best in the league, but their pass defense is among the worst. People are seeing that the Steelers lost four in a row and are counting them out, but those games were against the Eagles, Ravens, Chiefs, and Bengals. This is still a good team. Tomlin will have them ready to go. And maybe most importantly, the Steelers were designed by Kevin Colbert and Omar Khan to beat this Ravens team. They recognized by 2019 and 2020 that Lamar was going to be the player to beat if they wanted to continue winning the AFC North. Their defense is specifically constructed to slow him down. I expect a classic AFC North low scoring defensive showdown, which plays to the Steelers strengths.

I did a thing and booked a (fully refundable) AirBnB in Baton Rouge, Louisiana for 2/7-2/10. No way I could ever afford tickets to the game, but just being on Bourbon Street would be amazing. Don't let me down boys.

This is kind of an odd one. I love Spielman, but he has no executive experience in the NFL except for this current "special assistant" role. I'm not even really sure all of what he does here, but he's great, because he led to the hiring of Campbell and Holmes. It seems like Ray Agnew would be a more sensical target, but I have heard very little smoke around his name.

Don't forget about Manu either. A long-term project, but I bet he turns into something.

I might have believed that last year, but it's not a big concern of mine any more. I know that foot issue was significant last year, and there were talks that it was inoperable, but he's missed only one game this year, for the torn pec muscle. And he wanted to play in that game. I've heard nothing about his toe at all this year, so I think it's fair to assume that it's holding up fine. No one would blame him if he retired. He loves the outdoors and seems to have a second career ready as an outdoorsman. He's got some hilarious videos on his YouTube channel of fishing with Jared Goff, and another one where he falls through the ice in this bougie backyard creek. But I think he's just the ultimate competitor. I don't think retirement is something he's even considered.

I think the sacks are a little inflated because of Goff and the high powered offense. Goff, for all his strengths, is not a mobile QB who is going to escape pressure and extend a play. And with how good the offense is, we would rather protect the ball, take a 1st or 2nd down sack, and setup a 2nd and 17 or 3rd and 11 (because this offense can routinely pick that up), than have Goff throw a ball he doesn't want to trying to avoid the sack, and have it get picked or stripped... For comparison, the Ravens LT is Ronnie Stanley, who has allowed 2 sacks. The Bills LT is Dion Dawkins, who has allowed 3 sacks. I think Decker is as good or better than both of them, even if the sacks don't show it. He's had some bad moments, but I think he's still got at least one more year in him. He's still probably a top-20 to top-30 OT in the league, and those don't grow on trees. He's no Sewell, but Sewell is playing like a future Hall of Famer, so it's not exactly a fair comparison. Their hope is probably that Gio Manu continues to develop into a good starting LT or RT and can replace Decker in 2026 or 2027.

AFC Wildcard (2) Bills over (7) Broncos, 41-17 On further reflection, the Broncos wins this year aren't impressive. Bucs, Jets, Raiders, Saints, Panthers, Falcons, Raiders, Browns, Colts, and Chiefs. Notwithstanding the Chiefs' backups, they beat one playoff team in that bunch, and it was the Bipolar Bucs in week three. I think they might get smoked by the Bills. (6) Steelers over (3) Ravens, 21-17 An early shocker. Everyone is counting out Tomlin, but he's one of the best coaches in the league and has a defense that was designed to slow down Lamar. Maybe I'm wildly wrong, but I won't be shocked if they do it. (5) Chargers over (4) Texans, 28-16 I don't think the Texans belong. The Chargers defense might be the best in the league (though they aren't well tested). The Chargers should win this game though. Divisional (1) Chiefs over (6) Steelers, 27-14 This might be a closer game than people expect after it wasn't close on Christmas, but I don't think Russell Wilson can do anything substantive against the Chiefs defense. (5) Chargers over (2) Bills, 42-24 And then I think we see the Bills defense collapse. You never know what you'll get with that Chargers offense, but the Bills defense is a ticking time bomb. Maybe they do enough, but I feel like they're going to eventually put Allen into a really bad situation where he needs to play from a 14+ point deficit early. Allen will then try to do too much, and it'll snowball into another long offseason. AFC Championship (5) Chargers over (1) Chiefs, 20-13 A stunner, but I think it's a real possibility. The Chargers defense is no joke, and Harbaugh is putting the offense in positions to succeed. They've given up 17 and 19 to the Chiefs in their first two matchups and the Chiefs needed a stroke of luck and a comeback both times. If the Chargers find a way to get to 20, they might win this thing. NFC Wildcard (7) Packers over (2) Eagles, 34-27 The Packers are better than they've let on in these last two weeks. And while LaFleur is a douche, he's 3x the coach Sirianni ever will be. Meanwhile the Eagles don't even know who their QB will be, and the Packers have a top run defense in the league. I think the Packers pull of an upset that is reminiscent of the Cowboys game last year. (3) Buccaneers over (6) Commanders, 31-24 This should be a good game. I think Baker Mayfield is a seriously underrated QB, while Jayden Daniels hasn't seen the bright lights of a playoff game yet. Makes the difference. (4) Rams over (5) Vikings, 28-27 This could go either way and is probably the game of the wildcard round. I think the Lions exposed Sam Darnold a bit though last week, and McVay will be salivating at the opportunity to rattle him. Darnold plays better than he did against Detroit, but makes one too many mistakes, and the Rams pull it out. Divisional (1) Lions over (7) Packers, 34-28 I don't want to play them again, but I won't be surprised if that's how it shakes out. I think the week off will be crucial here, as the Packers are already banged up, and are missing their top receiving threat, which plays to the Lions' defensive strength. They are also playing Saquon and a physical Eagles team on Sunday while the Lions recover. It's not quite as close as the Thursday Night game, but it's stressful nonetheless. (4) Rams over (3) Buccaneers, 37-30 Stafford has a huge day on the Bucs pass defense that sorely misses CDIII, and demonstrates he's got one more Super Bowl in him. NFC Championship (1) Lions over (4) Rams, 31-23 The storyline that will never die gets another chapter. Lions win the playoff rematch, with the offensive line coming through clutch in the 4th quarter with some powerful runs. Lions never trail, but are never comfortable. Super Bowl LIX (1N) Lions over (5A) Chargers, 42-31 One of the higher scoring Super Bowls of all time, as Goff is a man on a mission, running away with the Super Bowl MVP. They do the unthinkable and bring home the Lombardi Trophy. Let a man dream!!!

He also posted this on TikTok after the game. Foot is good enough to dance on. v12044gd0000cttmganog65ukgfia3o0.MP4

He also expects Montgomery back for the Divisional Round.

He does not expect Barnes or Davis to be back this season. Emphasized that Hutchinson "suffered a season-ending injury," but that if anybody could come back from it it's him.

"Better news on Zeitler and Arnold, can't guarantee that they're playing, but much better news than they appeared when they were playing... O'Connor is not as positive." - Campbell in his presser just now.

It's not like he was very good though. Will Levis is a bust, Skoronski is a good pass blocker but a liability in the run game, which is not good enough as a #8 overall pick, and JC Latham hasn't looked special as a rookie. T'Vondre Sweat has looked good, but that's not enough to really inspire confidence... He's been even worse in free agency. Four years and $92 million to 30-year-old Calvin Ridley? Three years and $24 million to Tony Pollard? He spent like a contender and then got the worst record in the league. Most GMs don't get the chance to select two franchise QBs. If he's going to screw up the first one with Will Levis, and you don't have full confidence in him to get the 1st overall pick right, it's probably the right move. Honestly, they should have fired him last year and kept Vrabel.

I already admitted I was dead wrong about his extension, does he have to rub it in?? (Even if he doesn't have to, I hope he continues to).

Meanwhile the Lions finish the regular season as the beneficiary of one pass interference penalty, for five yards. Assuming this resource is correct, that's the fewest by both number and yards since the 2018 Jets (also 1 DPI for 5 yards).

I get the feeling that a lot of politicking and give and take goes on behind the scenes regarding scheduling. Like the Lions got screwed on the bye week this season, but they haven't played an international game since 2015, and have never once have had to forfeit a home game gate to play an international game. Meanwhile, each of the other three NFC North teams had an international game this year, and both the Bears and Vikings had to sacrifice a home game for it. It's overly simplistic, but I can kind of see them favoring teams that go international with a "better" bye week. Though the Vikings got a week six bye, so not much better. The bye week schedule generally doesn't make a ton of sense in any event. This year it was four teams in week five, four teams in week six, two in week seven, zero in week eight, two in week nine, four in week ten, four in week eleven, six in week twelve, zero in week thirteen, and six in week fourteen. I'm sure it has to do with scheduling and television contracts, but it would seem to me a lot easier if you just scheduled them by division. AFC/NFC East are off in week seven, AFC/NFC North are off in week eight, AFC/NFC South are off in week nine, AFC/NFC West are off in week ten. But they don't pay me to think, so what do I know.

I haven’t forgotten that radio crew’s call of Brett Favre choking away a playoff game. “This is not Detroit, this is the Super Bowl!” Well you just got to see Detroit, and you can’t beat them either in a game that matters!

35-9 in the regular season, 37-10 counting the postseason.

So who would we most like to play? No team is going to be easy. Rams: well coached, dangerous team whose number we have had of late. We are more talented, but you can't be sloppy or they'll take advantage of it. Feels like Stafford is the best QB of the bunch as well, who may be able to capitalize if Arnold is out or limited. I imagine the Lions would be favored by 3ish. Vikings: it's hard to imagine they would play as poorly as they did yesterday in a rematch. That said, I would still be fairly confident in a rematch. Outside the weird Houston game, the Lions offense turned the ball over 10 times in 16 games. Three of those went to the Vikings in two games. Feels like if the offense is clicking, and they cut out the turnovers, they win this game a 3rd time. Lions are probably favored by 6ish. Commanders: the real wildcard of the wildcard teams. They're a good team with a young mobile QB. Not a ton of playoff experience, but they're playing loose and think they can beat anybody. I expect that they would use the Bills tape and try to have Daniels replicate Allen's success. How would he do in a rabid Ford Field environment though? Depending on how they won against Tampa, I expect the Lions would be favored by 7ish. Packers: who knows? I hate this team. They play out of their mind against Detroit and take everything we have to beat on Thursday Night, and then go and lay an egg on midfield in a huge game against Minnesota. I could totally see them beating Philadelphia, just how they shocked Dallas last year. But which Packers team would we get? I'd probably rather avoid them, but I still think the Lions win this one, and I wouldn't mind an early exit for Philadelphia. Lions would probably be favored by 3 or 4ish. I think my preferences before seeing the wildcard round are (1) Vikings, (2) Commanders, (3) Packers, (4) Rams. Subject to change.

I use Justin Rogers. He posts it pretty quickly after the game.

I don't think Hutch gives him the option. He's going out there, Dan Campbell's only choice is whether he wants to get a penalty for too many men by sending out 11 other guys too. I actually think there is a non-zero chance he is activated for the NFC Championship Game, assuming he's medically cleared. I would rather Hutch be activated for that game on a 25-50% snap count, get his legs under him, and have the potential for him to be 100% in the Super Bowl, than have a depth player like Chris Smith active (who recorded 8 snaps last night).

Before the game yesterday, I was invited to participate in a focus group of season ticket holders with one of the executives. He had a fancy title but ultimately was a guy who wears a suit to a football game. It was a cool experience, most of it was asking us about their sponsors and partners, what we notice and what we don't. Asking the group "do you know who the official mortgage provider is?", "what about who sponsors Hometown Heroes?", etc. I think they use it to price their partnerships. Like, increasing the price of Hometown Heroes and telling corporations "98% of our focus group recognizes the sponsor of this event" The one thing that stuck out to me though was questions about the name of Ford Field. He asked us our thoughts about the name, and how we would feel if the name changed. He didn't say this, but their initial 25-year naming agreement from 2002 is up in 2027, and I would bet they're getting significant offers to rename the stadium. The room was in consensus that having the staples of Ford Field and Comerica Park (and LCA to a lesser extent because it's new) is important. I brought up the White Sox stadium and how that's changed so many times I don't even know the name anymore. It was an interesting insight on the inner workings.

Like Campbell told the team after the NFCCG last year, "this may have been our only shot. Do I think that? No. Do I believe that? No -- however, I know how hard it is to get here. I'm well aware. And it's going to be twice as hard to get back to this point next year, than it was this year. That's the reality." Despite the audience, that wasn't a message to last year's team, it was a message to this year's team. You can't squander an opportunity and expect to just run it back the next year. That's what they have right now, a massive opportunity. Win two home games and you're going to the Super Bowl. Don't squander it.

Generally speaking, I think Holmes drafts not for that coming season, but for what the team will look like in 2-3 seasons. Whereas generally he uses free agency and trading to address immediate needs. It's why he takes guys like Vaki, Manu, and Rakestraw in the draft, trades for a guy like CDIII, and signs a guy like Zeitler. On offense, Mahagony seems to have the inside lane to replace one of Glasgow and Zeitler, once it's needed. Knock on all the wood, but Ragnow has had a very healthy season after battling that nagging turf toe all of last year. I'm not at all worried about his longevity right now. So that said, you probably need one guard and maybe one tackle, depending on how well Gio Manu develops, which none of us know. Beyond the line, you maybe need to think about replacing Montgomery in the coming years, though Vaki may be primed to do so. You need to make a decision on Jamo as well. If Jamo is extended, you're pretty well set at WR for the foreseeable future. You could probably stand to improve on Tim Patrick, but there's no urgency or real "need" there. Run it back with Tim Patrick, find the next Tim Patrick, whatever, they'll figure something out, like they've done between DJ Chark and Josh Reynolds. I think the slightly more likely direction is still on defense, and specifically the line. The line is anchored by McNeill and Hutch, and you have DJ Reader and Za'Darius Smtih for next season, but Reader will be 31 and Smith 33 next season, in addition to McNeill rehabbing an ACL. Z's snap counts and usage also indicates that there isn't a lot of trust there on run defense, and the youth there in Brodric Martin hasn't showed the development that a lot of us were hoping for (not writing him off, just saying he's not ready). I do think they give Levi a second contract, which is crazy to have said a year ago, but overall that's probably the unit with the most question marks looking to 2026 and 2027, that could also use a rookie's immediate boost. I've been pounding the drum for a few seasons, but I think finding an A-tier edge rusher to line up across from Hutch could take the defense from being top-ten to top-three in the league. I think the linebackers are set, and may be among the best in the league next year, as long as Glenn stays or the replacement picks up where he's leaving off. Carlton Davis will probably, though not necessarily, walk this offseason. They might pick up a free agent replacement, but you have Amik and Rakestraw still here, so there's not a ton of urgency there either, and in any event your safeties are the best in the league. This is a really good team. Now and in the future. It's a fun time to be a fan.