People need to pump the brakes on their enthusiasm for next year. Do I think Democrats take the House back? Yes. Do I think they will have a 10-15 seat majority? Possibly. Do I think they are going to blow out Republicans and gain 50-60 seats on a single cycle? No. The country is simply too polarized for those types of wild swings we used to see in House elections of years gone by.
Furthermore, Democrats aren't winning the Senate. I love Sherrod Brown. I wish Democrats ran more populist progressives like Brown across the country. But I feel Ohio is too far down the Republican rabbit hole now to win and they aren't winning it back with Sherrod Brown. I also don't think they're winning Alaska, Iowa, or Maine in the Senate. Everyone predicted Susan Collins was cooked on 2020 against Sara Gideon. Not only did she win, not only did she overperform polling expectations, she blew Sara Gideon out by over 8 points. I tend to think Collins holds on again. Mainers like her labotomized way of thinking and speaking it appears and whatever folksy charm she has to offer. Without Maine, it will be impossible to take the Senate in 2026 and very hard in 2028.