Betrayer

Interesting stuff, but I'll take the over. I have trouble trusting a ranking system that has the Utah Jazz that high (higher than the Bulls) with a 40% chance to make the playoffs. Pacers over the Kings and Wizards? I believe Rick Carlisle typically gets more out of his teams than you'd think he should, but I'm not buying them outside of the bottom 5.

Not at all what I'm saying, and I'm pretty sure you know it. Look around the league. Even teams that switch heavily aren't running a Soft Switching scheme 100% of the time. 5 minutes in and everyone - including the opposing broadcast team - knows how to get the mismatch they want on every play for the rest of the game. Pretty sure the rest of the league isn't living in 1987, but they certainly aren't running the same simplistic scheme as Casey, so clearly there are other options. I'm also pretty sure from the discussions we've had over the years that your BBall IQ is high enough to see this and also see how bad this offensive scheme is as well. Knowing that, it would impossible to think that it doesn't affect player development in a negative way. Keep him on board for the off-court stuff that he's good at, but we need a better coach on the court both to make these games more competitive and also for the sake of continued player development.

When I watch Duren and Stew get dragged away from the paint on defense every play because opponents figure out they can get whatever mismatch they want all night, it doesn't make me feel good about their development. I want to see Duren in the paint, learning to box out big men and swat shots. Hard to do in a soft switching scheme when your big men are constantly on the perimeter. The same could be said in reverse for the guards having to guard out of position and stop Velanciunas from getting rebounds rather than being able to hit the gas in transition after the big man secures the board. Being able to switch is one thing, but doing it 100% of the time before the screen even arrives is a terrible system that puts every player at a constant disadvantage. That's not playing to your strengths and maximizing your team's potential, and when you're playing to your weaknesses and constantly putting your players at a disadvantage it affects both confidence and development. Same can be said on the offensive side of the ball. The lineups and offensive schemes aren't designed to play the strengths of the players we have. Running DHOs that don't shift the defense doesn't work and it forces guys to play hero ball, but we don't have a team built around one-on-one heroic players. We should be running action to get guys open with more movement and more off ball screens/cuts to free us up from defenses that overplay with tight perimeter coverage. This stagnant offense is forcing them into bad plays, bad habits, and ultimately impacting both confidence and development. Killian's confidence issues and their affect on his development are a well known fact at this point. I don't think Cade has been put in a position to succeed at all. He's just good enough that he still put up numbers regardless. Bey is a fan favorite, but look at his efficiency and some of the things he was asked to do last year to try to salvage plays rather than playing the game the right way and playing to his strength. These kids are being forced to play a lot of Casey Hero Ball rather than learning to play the game "the right way", move the ball, find open cutters, and so on. Bottom line, I feel that when you're putting your players at a disadvantage on both ends of the court rather than playing to their strengths, you're negatively impacting their development. Obviously this isn't quantitative, because we have no way of knowing how they would develop under LB or Carlisle or whomever. But I just don't see how being trained wrong and constantly put at a disadvantage can help your confidence or development. These players are developing despite Casey's on court strategy (and I'm sure partially because he's good off the court), not because of it.

There goes everyone's dream of signing Wiggins with all that money we have in the offseason. 😄

Casey teams will never be better than their best star's ability to play hero ball. His teams will never be more than the sum of their parts. That said, the team is really young, so the W/L record is probably only slightly shifted with a better coach although the game to game competitiveness and watch-ability would be better. More importantly, while I think Casey is great for development off the court, I think he's actually impeding development on the court. You have to put players in a position to succeed and he's not doing that. The defensive scheme, the platoon lineups, and the offensive system are all impacting the on-court development of these players by constantly putting them behind the 8-ball.

His job is to write stories. In order to get quotes and interviews for those stories he needs to have a good relationship with the team and coach. You don't have a good relationship with the team and coach if you flame them all the time. So, it's in his best interest to be a source of positivity rather than publicly calling out the horrendous on court coaching strategy. He's not a fan of this team (the Pistons, nothing to do with this iteration of the team). He's said it numerous time on his podcast. This is a job to him and he's going to do what's best for his career.

This podcast is up and down, but here's a really good episode backed up with some facts and stats in the second segment of the show. Worth a listen if you want to understand why Soft Switching is a terrible scheme, especially for this team, despite Casey's arguments and JEIII's Athletic article: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=adrLoAY755s&t=143s

Looking at the schedule, it's going to be a pretty rough start to the season. That combined with a bunch of new (and young) pieces means that the record will be terrible come the holidays. I can't argue with your logic, but I get the feeling that there's a little pressure (maybe from Gores, not sure) to win and be more competitive this year, so I can't see them shutting it down. I'd also question what "shutting it down" means when you're already running a roster of mostly 19-23 year olds. Maybe you could move Bojan and Burks, but I don't think you want to hold Cade and Ivey out of any significant number of games in such crucial development years. But don't worry, just having Casey at the helm will keep us in the running for a good draft spot.

Been a rough couple of preseason games. Ivey is legit. He's going to make a bunch of mistakes (turnovers), but he adds something we desperately need and will likely lead this team in free throw attempts. Sad to see Bagley go down in preseason, but when has he ever been healthy for more than a minute? We knew this was coming at some point. Hopefully Duren can continue to gobble up rebounds in his absence and stake a claim to that starting Center role where he'll eventually belong anyway. 3 games into preseason and Casey is already driving me nuts. Soft Switching is bad: It's good to be a team that can switch, or even a team that switches fairly often (Boston, Miami), but "Soft Switching" (switching everything, even before the screen is set) is a very bad scheme. It literally took 5 minutes for the Pelicans broadcast team (Antonio Daniels) to start talking about how easy it would be to expose this defense. Opponent knows they can get whatever mismatch they want, whenever they want it. Rebounding suffers because you have Corey Joseph trying to box out Jonas Valanciunas constantly. You wind up having to double far too much. You put a lot of wear and tear on your guards trying to guard and box out people the size of Zion. And you constantly pull your rim protection far away from the basket leaving them in a bad position to guard the paint and contest shots. Offensive Scheme is still trash: The offensive is so vanilla and does nothing to shift the defense. Three DHOs that don't move the defense at all, then a simple pick and roll at the end of the clock to try to salvage something from the play. It's funny (and sad) to see them run the play and then look up confused like they expected it to create something. Maybe it works in practice against our own bad defense since we're switching everything, but this offense isn't working at all in games. Zero creativity. Zero use of individual player strengths. Rotations are the same garbage as last year: Should we get into his 5 man bench units with no staggering? One of Cade and Ivey should be on the court at all times, but that might require Casey to actually come up with a slightly more complex rotation scheme like every other team in the league. Right now, he's doing like I would in a video game. This team isn't getting anywhere with Casey at the helm and they'll constantly underperform. I get that he's good at developing young players, but get him into a development role then. We need an actual coach or my 35 win prediction is going to be way off - and that's what really matters 😄

Maybe, but I don't see any of these teams looking to drop into a tank unless one of their stars suffers a major injury: Milwaukee, Philly, Boston, Miami, Brooklyn, Chicago, Cleveland, Toronto, Atlanta, NY, Washington That's 11 teams and only 10 make it. I think it just means that the bottom 4 or 5 in each conference are going to be sitting players or trading away assets to tank harder.

Well, there ya go. Apparently Draymond thinks it's a cage match and the winner takes the contract. I'm sure sucker punching his smaller teammates makes up for his age and basketball shortcomings, while putting him in high demand all around the league. The Warriors are probably clamoring to make sure they give him an extra-lucrative contract as soon as possible

No matter what JP was saying, the physical portion of this was all on Draymond. Walked into his face, bumped him with his body, JP pushes him away, and then Draymond escalates it again to the extreme. I hope this shuts up the people in Detroit who think we should go after him this offseason. I don't need that in the in my locker room. Behind Pat Bev, there are few players I dislike more in the league.

Means about as much as the G-League play of Victor and Scoot, but it doesn't mean we aren't going to talk about it 🙄

I love Stew, but the starters need a player in Duren's mold who can be a vertical threat, grab rebounds, and add some size to that unit. Conversely, the bench could use Stew to help space the floor with Bagley in there rather than having both Duren and Bagley clogging the paint. -- Stewart with 1 rebound in 22 minutes. -- Duren with 14 in 24 minutes. Not to be left out of this preseason discussion is Casey. No matter what roster we have we're still going to contend with: -- All 5 starters coming out for a 5-man bench unit that will play for 6 minutes straight in both halves. -- Soft switching everything so the other team can get any mismatch they want anytime they want it. -- Terrible offense - 3 DHO's and a couple passes around the perimeter...defense doesn't shift at all...5 seconds left to chuck up a shot.

Supposed to be a pretty talented draft. I'd be happy with 3rd, because it means the lottery balls fell in our favor. Despite last night's game, this is not going to be a bottom 5 team this year.

Turnovers killing this team. That’ll be an issue all year but vets are as guilty as the young guys. Stew doesn’t fit with the starters. Too small, no lob threat, no weak side shot blocking, rebounds are a struggle. I’d rather see Duren in there with the starters, young or not.

1st quarter in the books. Casey already doing his 5 in, 5 out lineup garbage. Stew with a clean looking three. Cade looking rough. Ivey with a three and a bucket in transition. Also got rejected hard. Bey struggling.

Let’s talk about the meaningless games!

Results of the annual GM survey are out: https://www.nba.com/news/2022-23-gm-survey Detroit made a few appearances: Which player is most likely to have a breakout season: 1. Evan Mobley - 21% T-2. Cade - 17% T-2. Anthony Edwards - 17% T-4. Zion - 14% Which was the most underrated player acquisition? 1. Brodgon - 28% T-2. PJ Tucker - 14% T-2. John Wall - 14% 4. Melton - 10% 5. Bojan Bogdanovic - 7% Which rookie will be the best player in five years? 1. Paolo - 31% 2. Chet - 28% T-3. Jaden Ivey - 14% T-3. Jabari Smith - 14% 5. Keegan Murray - 7% Five years ago: Josh Jackson - 24% <--- 😄 😄😄 Which rookie was the biggest steal at where he was selected in the draft? T-1. Jalen Duren, Detroit - 14% T-1. Tari Eason - 14% T-3. AJ Griffin - 10% T-3. Sharpe - 10% T-5. Jaden Ivey - 7% T-5. Keegan Murray - 7% T-5. Jalen Williams - 7% Which team has the most promising young core? 1. Cavs - 41% 2. Grizz - 38% 3. Pistons - 10% And...GMs don't think Jaden has a shot at RoY... 😞 Who will win rookie of the year? 1. Paolo - 79% 2. Keegan - 17% 3. Jabari - 3% Last year: Jalen Green - 47%

The Pistons were better without Grant and it's not close. --> Overall: 11-36 (.234) with Grant, but 12-23 (.343) without him --> Since Jan 1: 7-16 (.304) with Grant, but 11-15 (.423) without him That over 10% better without Grant in either slice which amounts to about 8 wins on an entire season. Individual players were also better and more efficient without Grant (take a look at Saddiq's splits, for instance). They also didn't replace him with an 18 year old. Let's be real here, the 18 year old replaced Luka Garza. Maybe he'll be good enough out of the gate to get minutes, but we'll see. The person replacing Grant is Bojan and he's an upgrade. Say what you will about Bojan's defense, but I watched every game last year and Grant rarely brought his defense to the court. The difference there will be negligible, and they both average the same number of rebounds (about 4). The big difference is that Bojan is a clear upgrade as a scorer, both off the catch and off the dribble. Higher percentages, better efficiency, and on higher volume. All Jump Shots: 86th percentile Off the Dribble: 85th percentile Spot-Ups: 87th percentile Pick n Roll Ballhandler - 91st percentile But really, you just need one stat to illustrate the point: Grant took 126 shot from 16ft to less than 3pt range in just 47 games last season. Bojan took only 15 shots from that range in 69 games played. That's a guy who understands what an efficient shot is in the NBA. New youth or not, this team got better in the offseason, partly because of the Grant trade.

Awesome, got mine as well and it worked after I realized they screwed up the email by saying we should select "monthly" when in fact they meant we should select "annual".

Some notes from media day: Nerlens Noel is still dealing with plantar fasciitis (apparently it flared up in February of last season). He also said his goal is to be the DPoY - um, sure. Anyway, he'll be limited and is already starting off injured as we all expected. He did have some cool quotes about his love for Ben Wallace though. Alec Burks is recovering from a navicular fracture and is going to be re-evaluated in three weeks. That means he'll miss all of pre-season and will just be getting back to it around the start of the regular season. Could mean more minutes for Hami (or CoJo/McGruder), but may be good news for those of us who want to end the debate of whether Ivey is in the starting lineup or not. JEIII mentioned that there's talk about whether or not the Knicks were a bit shady in disclosing the full details of Burks health situation to the Pistons, but that he thinks the deal would have gone down anyway. Best quote came from Jaden Ivey, "I want to be a Piston for life. It runs deep." Reports are that Cade Cunningham has put on about 10lbs of muscle in the offseason. Casey said he, "looks like a different dude than last year." Saddiq Bey reportedly look more trim, although he told JEIII he hasn't lost any weight, he's just reduced his body fat percentage with his offseason regiment (he's been training in Colorado for the high altitude) Weaver talked more about the team being "at ground zero", after digging out of a hole for the first couple years. He finally feels like they have a "full complement of players." Previously they were figuring out who was going to stay or go, fixing the books, getting young talent, and finding good vets. Now he feels like things are stable, with a complete roster, and they can start going up from here. Casey said they're "Still in growth mode, but ready to compete at a higher level." He said that being young is no longer an excuse. Guys have to come to play. Nobody talked playoffs, but they also aren't trying to go out there and fight for last place this year. The Bojan move already told us that, but Casey reinforced the message. A lot of talk about how these guys all genuinely like each other and hang out together. Not just them, but their families as well. Feels like a real team and almost a college comradery type of vibe. Cool stuff. This came from most of the guys, but a lot of Bagley and Livers comments especially. From JEIII - Bojan will start day 1 and he's taking the over on Jaden Ivey starting as well. Killian got a lot of tough questions thrown at him and he had some interesting answers that acknowledged his need to be more aggressive on offense. He also talked about how he's been working hard on his jump shot and tweaked a few things as well. Stewart confirmed that he will be taking a lot more threes this year and said he's been studying a lot of Al Horford to see how he can be effective as a big man who can play the 4 or the 5, hit outside shots, and make the right reads.

This could be a drinking game every time he says the word "legitimate". This is so muddy and even in that video some of those looked like they could be called the other way (Rozier grabbing Brown's shorts from behind isn't giving up on the play?). I know they're trying to increase scoring and create more exciting plays, but this is just going to slow the game down more with reviews that take forever and more free throws just like the clear path foul does.

Absolutely. Replacing Grant (36%) and Jackson (31%) with Bojan (39%) and Burks (40%) clearly upgrades their floor spacing. I also forgot to mention a full season of Livers (42%) in place of Lyles (30%). We've already seen flashes from Stewart to end last year and in Summer League that show he may be a willing and capable 3pt shooter this year. And I expect Cade and Bey will have better numbers just by putting their 2021 rough starts behind them if nothing else. You'll have some drop-off with Ivey taking Joseph's minutes (41% on 2.4 attempts per game), but Ivey will collapse the defense a ton to create open shots for others, so I see it as a net gain.

Here's my preview and my predictions for the Pistons this season. Please post any predictions you have for players, overall record, or even general NBA predictions (or just feel free to poke holes in my predictions). It'll be fun to look back at the end of the season and see how close (or far) we were from the truth. Last Season's Record (with some interesting slices): Overall Record: 23-59, 28% - 3rd worst in NBA Since January 1st: 18-31, 37% After All-Star: 10-14, 42% With Cade since January 1st: 15-24, 39% Without Grant Overall: 12-23, 34% Without Grant since Jan 1st: 11-15, 42% 2022-23 Projected Lineup Projected Starters: Cunningham, Ivey, Bey, Bogdanovic, Stewart Primary Reserves: Hayes, Burks, Livers, Bagley, Noel (slowly giving way to Duren) Situational Players: Diallo, McGruder, Joseph, Knox Notable Departures Jerami Grant: Addition by subtraction. The Pistons had a better record without Grant in the lineup and both Cade and Bey had better numbers and percentages without him as well. Jerami was a solid player, but he was playing above his level, taking a lot of inefficient shots, and rarely engaged defensively or on the boards. Kelly Olynyk: Kelly had one of the worst statistical seasons of his recent career, and one that was plagued with injuries/illnesses. Addition by subtraction here as well. Frank Jackson: A gamble that didn't work out. Frank returned to his norm (31% from three) and proved that his previous season's 40% from 3 was not sustainable, even though he still took the third most threes per game (5.3) on the team. Other than his 2000's era long shorts and his mustache, he won't be missed. Notable Additions Jaden Ivey and Jalen Duren: As excited as I am to watch them, we don't know what these kids will bring in their rookie years. The only thing I'll say is that the team addressed a huge need in the offseason by getting what could be the 2 most gifted athletes in the entire draft. Alec Burks: Proven shooter who can score in bunches. Scored nearly 12 ppg last season on 40% from three and also added in 5 rebounds and 3 assists to just 1 turnover. Clear and proven upgrade over Frank Jackson. He'll add some much needed spacing to this team and probably play a lot of 4th quarter minutes for Casey. Nerlens Noel: Veteran shot blocker and paint defender (with terrible hands on offense). He'll play early in the season as Duren gets his feet under him, but I expect his minutes to dwindle due to injury, trade, or simply to make room for Duren as the season progresses. Nice depth piece with veteran experience, solid defense, and verticality. Bojan Bogdanovic: An absolute steal of a trade from Weaver. Underrated player who will slot in next to Bey at the other Forward spot and provides exactly what this team needs on offense - more spacing. He's flown under the radar, but Bojan averaged 18 ppg, 4.3 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on 45.5% FG, 38.7% 3PT, and 60 TS%. He was a dependable 30 mpg starter on a high caliber Western Conference playoff team, and he's done it for years. He'll be a clear offensive upgrade over Grant, with much higher efficiency and provide better spacing. The defense is mediocre, but I've read that he plays hard and is a better defender than most think - either way, we weren't getting much from Grant on D last year either. Using History to Project the 2022-23 Record Since Jan 1, 2022 the Pistons were 37% overall, but they were up to 42% in certain slices (for instance, without Grant). That would put them at 30 to 34 wins if all things remained equal. However, I believe this team got better: -The spacing is better with Bojan and Burks, alongside any 3pt shooting improvements from Cade, Bey, and Stew -The athleticism is much improved with Ivey and Duren -I expect that Cade, Bey, and Stew (and maybe Hayes?) will have continued to improve overall -The big-man situation isn't the train wreck it was for most of last year before they got Bagley But, then again: -They're still super young and historically young teams struggle in the NBA -The East is absolutely brutal this year And Finally, My Prediction... 35-47, 11th in the East: I expect the floor to be 30 wins and the ceiling to be 39, so I went with 35 wins and a 11th place finish in the East over Orlando, Indiana, Charlotte, and Washington. This is about 5 wins higher than what I would have predicted if you asked me before the Bojan trade came in. I expect the Knicks to be around the 40 win mark to get them into the 10th seed play-in game. I don't expect the Pistons to get to 40+ wins and a play-in spot unless Ivey comes out looking like rookie Dwayne Wade and Cade comes out looking like second year Luka (but we can hope).