Betrayer

I wasn't saying it was a wise move to wait on trading Grant, but I also have no idea what was on the table. I'm just hoping we trade him in the offseason and don't extend him. I highly doubt we go into next season without one of those two things happening and I'd prefer not to pay a guy like Grant 112M at this point in the rebuild.

Yea, I'm hoping for an OKC win tonight, which could seal the deal. I'm also hoping for the Portland trade to come through on draft night to give us a second lottery pick. My guess is that Weaver didn't see a point in rushing to make the trade before knowing where the pick would land or if protections would push it down the road a year or more (New Orleans pick only conveys between 5 and 14). On draft night, all cards will be on the table and Portland needs Grant to help rebuild around Lillard in a hurry.

I believe the rule was passed that summer, so it started the year after.

Yep, about half of the Superstar-type guys come from outside of the top 4 like Steph, Kawhi, Lillard, Giannis, and Jokic as well as the next tier of guys like DeRozan, George, Butler, Klay, Booker, Mitchell, Gobert, and Trae. That's before we even get into guys that are borderline All-Stars like Siakam, Murray, Lavine, Green, Lowry, and others. Point being, you can get a good player outside of the top 4, so I guess we'll have to trust in Weaver to pick us another Bey and not another Hayes.

For those of you (like me) who might be disappointed to watch the Pistons slip in the draft lottery standings... I've been looking at re-drafts of the top 4 players from each draft from 2005 until 2018 (I want to make sure we have at least 3 full seasons so I stopped there) and the data is pretty interesting. I've included all the data below if you want to see it, but here are some findings: Of the 56 total players 33% were from picks 1-3 41% of them came from picks 1-4 59% were picked outside of the top 4 20% came from picks 5-10 16% from picks 11 -15 23% from picks 21-48, showing the importance of late first round and early second round picks that some GMs like to give away Never have the top 4 picks wound up being the top 4 players Only 2 times have 3 of the top 4 picks become the top 4 players of that draft 6 times only 2 players were drafted in the top 4 5 times only 1 player was in the top 4 picks Once (in 2013) none of the top 4 players were drafted 1-4 Some data on individual picks... #3 tops the list with 8 players #1 is right behind it, with 7 players Picks #2, #4, and #5 have each yielded 4 of the top 4 players in their draft #8 is the worst. Not once did it yield a top 4 player from 2005-2018 ----------- Data dump below in case you want to have fun poking around ------------- Year Re-Draft Player Picked 2005 1 Chris Paul 4 2005 2 Deron Williams 3 2005 3 Monta Ellis 40 2005 4 Lou Williams 45 2006 1 LaMarcus Aldridge 2 2006 2 Kyle Lowry 24 2006 3 Paul Milsap 47 2006 4 Rajon Rondo 21 2007 1 KD 2 2007 2 Marc Gasol 48 2007 3 Mike Conley 4 2007 4 Al Horford 3 2008 1 Russell Westbrook 4 2008 2 Kevin Love 5 2008 3 Derrick Rose 1 2008 4 DeAndre Jordan 35 2009 1 Steph Curry 7 2009 2 James Harden 3 2009 3 Blake Griffin 1 2009 4 DeMar DeRozan 9 2010 1 Paul George 10 2010 2 John Wall 1 2010 3 DeMarcus Cousins 5 2010 4 Gordon Hayward 9 2011 1 Kawhi Leonard 15 2011 2 Kyrie Irving 1 2011 3 Jimmy Butler 30 2011 4 Klay Thompson 11 2012 1 AD 1 2012 2 Damian Lillard 6 2012 3 Bradley Beal 3 2012 4 Draymond Green 35 2013 1 Giannis 15 2013 2 Rudy Gobert 27 2013 3 CJ McCollum 10 2013 4 Steven Adams 12 2014 1 Jokic 41 2014 2 Embiid 3 2014 3 Zach Lavine 13 2014 4 Clint Capela 25 2015 1 Devin Booker 13 2015 2 KAT 1 2015 3 Kristaps Porzingis 4 2015 4 Dangelo Russell 2 2016 1 Jaylen Brown 3 2016 2 Jamal Murray 7 2016 3 Pascal Siakam 27 2016 4 Brandon Ingram 2 2017 1 Jayson Tatum 3 2017 2 Donovan Mitchell 13 2017 3 Bam Adebayo 14 2017 4 DeAaron Fox 5 2018 1 Luka 3 2018 2 Trae Young 5 2018 3 SGA 11 2018 4 DeAndre Ayton 1

Ties split their lottery balls and if there's an odd number of balls it is randomized. (Source: https://www.tankathon.com/pick_odds) I expect that DAL and MIL will still want to win when we play them...76ers game could go either way by then. We really need OKC to win against POR at home. That's would lock us into 3rd if we lose out and it's OKC best chance at a win. My concern is not about the odds of getting top 4, it's about the odds of slipping to 6, 7, 8, or even 9th in this draft. I get that there's no clear cut #1 superstar, but I also don't want to be picking 6-9 after all the losing this season.

This year they seem to be overly concerned with the team's record, as if this is the MVP race and not the Rookie of the Year race. Because Mobley and Barnes are on playoff teams they've been getting more love all year long and since people don't like to be wrong with their early season "hot takes" they're just going to stick to their guns and give it to one of those two. Fact is that Cade has been seeing more doubles than most of the stars in this league, has absolutely ridiculous on/off numbers, and is shouldering more responsibility than any of the other top rookies. His numbers since January have been RoY worthy (10 of the last 11 who had those numbers won the award - with Magic Johnson only losing to Bird) and while Jalen has also come on lately, it took him a bit longer and his stats are more one-dimensional. I don't think it's clear cut that Cade is most deserving, but the case is a lot stronger than most people are giving credit and of all awards, RoY should be the least impacted by team record. But it's fine. RoY is meaningless so let's give Cade that Detroit vs Everybody chip on his shoulder and hopefully he'll come back even better next year.

I was hoping for the 76ers to wind up in the #1 spot to face Brooklyn in the first round, but as long as they stay at #4 I'm ok with that too. I just don't want to see the 76ers vs the Nets in the ECF because I'll have nobody to root for. Love seeing the Lakers slip to 11. AD is supposed to be back tonight against the Pelicans so that's a huge game. Spurs play Portland twice, so hopefully they can hold on to the 10 seed if the Pelicans can beat LA tonight.

Welcome to the top 3 lottery odds, OKC.

Such a fun game to watch if you turn off the tank filter. Great to see how they've been playing lately, with the young guys leading the way. Cade has been on a roll, Killian showing signs of becoming a nice bench piece, and Bey continues to play well. Bagley may have gotten injured on that play where Embiid hit him from behind while going for a fast break dunk, so hopefully he's alright.

Did you see his defense? That's the real reason Casey benches him. He definitely brings a nice element on the offensive end, but he's truly bad on defense. Definitely a fun game though. Perfect for the tank, as you said. Cade was so impressive going blow for blow with KD. Main difference is that KD got to the foul line and the refs have consistently ignored Cade all season no matter how much contact he draws. Killian has been quietly showing flashes for a while now as well. His defense continues impress and he's a solid passer, but now he's driving more and being more aggressive offensively. It's still a work in progress, but he's showing signs of that eh could become a solid bench PG. I have to keep reminding myself that's he's only 20 and has only played in 85 games or so (basically 1 season). Just need 6 more games like this. Tied for first in lottery odds so we control our destiny from here.

They're trying out this Bagley/Stewart combo and also letting those two work on their spacing game. Seems like they're trying to see what would happen if they picked a guard/wing in the draft and traded Grant.

That Orlando game was close for a while, but you just knew CLE would pull it out. That HOU game though...that one came down to the wire.

Cade usually gets Grant's rebounds, since Grant doesn't rebound. But with Bagley and Stew in there, he didn't have to shoulder that load.

Next season on the couch at home.

HOU, ORL, and DET sitting at 20 wins. OKC with 21. It's going to be an interesting 9 games to finish the season. I don't want to see another game like Atlanta where the vets score 58 points. Grant, CoJo, Olynyk, and McGruder can sit for the remainder of the season. Play Pickett, Lee, Garza, and Key instead. If you win games and you're playing all the youngters, fine, you can't tell these kids to play poorly on purpose, but don't throw the vets out there. It's not about the roughly even odds of getting a 1-4 pick, it's about the odds of slipping to 5, 6, or 7.

You definitely go for the best player. Even if Cade becomes as good as Luka or Tatum, one star isn't getting you anywhere but the 7-10 seed and mediocrity. You basically need 2 superstars or 3 all-stars and a bunch of other good role players (shooters and defenders) around them. That's why I want to swing for an athlete with the potential to become a Jalen Brown or Donovan Mitchell type of player. You have to have a secondary all-star caliber creator who can get buckets, pressure the defense, and make it easier for role players on drive and kicks. Not to mention that this team is woefully unathletic with Cade, Bey, and Stew, so we need to address that. Adding someone like Banchero to that mix scares me. Hopefully we get a high pick and then move Grant for Portland's extra pick to make this whole thing a lot easier. Grant's solid, but I don't like him for 120M at this stage of the rebuild.

I wouldn't take him at #1 because if you get #1 and you want Ivey, then you should trade down and get more assets. However, I'm pretty high on him and this draft feels like a lot of lot low ceiling guys when we need to swing for upside to get another star next to Cade. Maybe it's just Ivey's archetype that's enticing me, and Mathurin or Sharpe are more likely to fit the role in the long run. Who knows. Either way, we need an aggressive and athletic playmaker next to Cade who can slash to the basket, handle in transition, defend the perimeter so Cade doesn't have to, and hit enough threes to be a threat (~36% is fine). A Jalen Brown or Donovan Mitchell type to compliment Cade's version of Jason Tatum meets Chris Paul, if you will. Maybe that guy is Ivey, but it could be Mathurin or even Sharpe. Regardless, I think you've got to swing for one of that type of player with our pick or with Portland's (if we get it for Grant).

Draft talk from Chad after the first weekend of play. Skip the first 8 minutes of garbage. They talk about Chet vs Duren and what that does to their stock, Banchero's first round play, and Ivey making the case for the top pick. Solid listen, regardless of what you think about Chad.

I meant to say 5-7 if we don't get #2 overall. As you all know, I'm not high on Chet.

It was a fun game to watch if you weren't thinking about draft odds. Cade continues to make his case for RoY. Problem I had with the game was Grant, Joseph and Olynyk playing at this point in the season and getting 48 points. We should be seeing guys like Lee, Garza, and Pickett. If you win while playing all those youngsters, then fine, you win. But if your vets are scoring half your points when winning games can only hurt your future, then it's simply shortsighted coaching.

As long as they hold it together long enough to beat Brooklyn, I'm happy.

I heard this as well, but not sure how much stock I put in it at this point in the year or that they'd allow someone to just announce their real big board. However, if it is true, I hope we get a pick in the 5-7 range if we don't get #1 overall.

It matters because they play the Rockets and Thunder each two more times this season.

I've been watching most of the Madness games with the top prospects and right now my board looks like: #1 - Jabari Smith Jr - Could be the best shooter in the entire first round with real NBA range right now. Solid defender, but I saw him getting blown by on the perimeter more than once so I'm not sure about his lateral footspeed on switches. I don't think he'll be a lock down defender, but I'd project him as above average overall. Plays more like a SF in a PFs body, so don't expect a rim-runner, slasher, or paint player. People love the KD comparison due to body type and shooting, but I think a 6'10" version of Klay might be the comp I'd go with. I'm not sure he projects as a superstar (not sure anyone in this draft does, although history says there will probably be one), but I think he has a very high floor and an All-Star (though not All-Star starter) ceiling. #2 - Jaden Ivey - Explosive speed and lift. Can get to the bucket for a foul or drive and kick at will. Shooting improved a lot this year, but still streaky. Went from 25% from three last year to 36% this year - very similar numbers to Donovan Mitchell and Ja Morant in college. Better shooter off the catch than off the dribble. Not a lead guard (unlike Ja), but we don't need that since we have Cade. He's 6'4" with nice length, strength, and elite athleticism to guard the other team's best perimeter player and take the defensive pressure off of Cade. Defense is a mixed bag right now, but has the potential and shows it when he locks in on a player (reminds me of Hami a bit in that way). Lower floor than Jabari Smith, but higher upside. He's a better version of Hami right with his shooting and skills as a secondary creator - and that's his floor in my eyes. His ceiling is a 3" taller version of Donovan Mitchell, and that's the intrigue for me next to Cade - Fire and Ice. #3 - Benedict Mathurin - Again, this team needs athleticism in a big way. Mathurin projects as a good shooter and tremendous athlete. I need to watch more before I can form a deeper opinion than that, but I'll take his upside over the remaining players for many of the same reasons I gave for Ivey. #4 - Still thinking about this... Others: Chet - I don't buy him as an NBA player and I'd rather let someone else take the chance. If Jabari is off the board and I'm staring at Chet, I'm trading down to collect more assets and grab Ivey or Mathurin instead. Let's just start with: Who does he guard in the NBA? You can't play him at Center because he's going to get eaten alive. Watch his minutes against Jalen Duren in the last game and you'll get a sample of what's going to happen against NBA bodies. Nearly all of Chet's stats came when Duren was on the bench. The only way he's successful is if you can play him at the 4 or the 3 like Giannis/KD where his length is an asset. Problem is, he doesn't have the kind of athleticism or footspeed to guard the perimeter like those guys. When I watch him play I just see a lot of "tall guy in college" stats. I also look at draft history for the past 10 years and see very few All-Star big men taken in the top 3. I don't want to be the team that takes Bagley over Luka or Trey because big guys can make it look so easy in college. Even a guy like Garza can dominate in college just through sheer size and tenacity. Banchero - Another guy I'm not sure translates fully to the NBA. That strength is nothing compared to NBA players, so he loses that advantage. What's left? He's not a lights-out shooter. He's slow on the defensive end. He has high usage for his position. He's not a great athlete. I'd rather take a shot on someone like Ivey, Mathurin, or others.