Shelton

Bring in whoever they should have brought in for vest the other night.

That was close to the same ball Neto hit that bounced off vest. This time it doesn’t hit vest and it’s the out it should be.

I thought the same thing the other day. But then I thought about how any of the four teams in line to get the first round bye should be in on Skubal, regardless of market size and general philosophy. These opportunities really don’t come around that often (meaning both being a title contender and having a rental cy young on the market at the deadline). And even in the brewers case, they already cashed in Freddy P, so they kind of have a little house money (overall, not necessarily the guys they got back in particular) and could maybe look at it as they upgraded from Freddy to Tarik and also came out ahead in system depth, while also being in position to contend. With a looming work stoppage, the time is now.

Weather not looking great.

I think Jones was a fair gamble to try to replicate last year. But otherwise I think the problem is simple and it’s the injuries. Parker, Javy, Gleyber, and Kerry are all substantial losses. Tork and Colt being a bit below average at the plate is a minor factor, which is amplified when you are without those other guys. That’s 3-4 missing lineup spots being filled by bench players, and bench players being replaced by replacement level players. But it definitely doesn’t help that the bench players stepping in have been sub-replacement. It was jarring to look at the poor lineup yesterday, and then look at the bench, and realize how bad the bottom 7-8 position players are.

I said all offseason that I didn’t see a role for McKinstry on the team this year. Looks like I was wrong, but to be fair I did not anticipate so many injuries and getting to the point that Gage Workman was needed. But my view was that keeping McKinstry was a mistake if you had faith that McGonigle was going to make the team. And to me that always felt like a lock (despite how much management and their media lackeys tried to poor cold water on the idea). As a backup SS and left handed utility player, he provided value in his roster flexibility of course, but there are only so many spots and we had Javy available for that utility role. I’m happy that he had that early season success last year and made the all star team and won the weird utility silver slugger. But expecting anything close to that this year seemed like too much.

Eh, I guess I just disagree that the difference between an innocent fly ball and a 100 EV fly ball rocket is all that different. A couple degrees difference in launch angle can have a big effect. It is not reasonable to expect that a pitcher is going to be able to completely avoid giving up 100 EV, and it certainly isn’t predictable based on what happened in the prior at bat. Anyway, I think it is definitely defensible to let him face trout and/or Grissom, but it’s also defensible to have thought a different option was a better bet to get trout or Grissom out. We don’t really know exactly what their matchup numbers suggested. I suspect Vest matched up best and that was the main reason he stayed in, especially given that he was basically cruising (bad defense and bad luck notwithstanding). Holton gave up a 100 EV home run to Jose Siri in the 9th, so obviously shouldn’t have been him. Finnegan gave up a 100 mph rocket to Oswald Pereza yesterday so he shouldn’t be an option. Kenley gave up 2 rockets in his last game against Baltimore on Sunday, one of which was a 111 mph walk off, so no way.

I think the Framber signing and Drew Anderson signing are looking good so far. I’m not upset about the JV thing quite yet, but he does need to actually return from the IL and perform like a decent fifth starter. Probably down on the Kenley thing, but I think when they made that move my feeling that he would be jsut one part of a three-man closing crew, but finnegan has also not been as good as hoped and vest got hurt. These are moves that you can definitely quibble with because there are always different relievers so they feel the most fungible.

I’m sorry but no. Vest threw a total of 34 pitches (is 54 a typo?). He was at 16 total after Wenceel dropped that ball. He was at 25 total after Neto hit him in the ass. He threw 6 pitches in the 7th and got two outs. So he was at 19 in the inning before facing trout. Sure, by the time it became 34 total and 28 in the inning (the point he was indeed pulled) you probably don’t want to go any further, but I think he is probably still the guy you want lined up to face trout and Grissom when he is at 25 total and 19 in the inning.

I do think it’s hard to avoid complaining and lashing when everything is going wrong. But I’m with you in that I really don’t understand the volume of complaints against management. I guess it’s like the old saying about driving on the highway. Everyone driving slower than you is a weak idiot that needs to get out of the way and everyone driving faster than you is a madman that is going to get someone killed. In my view, I’m happy to complain about why we have guys like Wenceel and short and Lee and workman on the roster when we appear to have higher ceiling replacements available in AAA. But I’m also willing to grant that there may be valid roster considerations in play, especially as such moves would require 40-man changes and the current state is still somewhat of a short term problem with a near term solution of guys like Torres and Kerry being back soon. I think it’s pretty hard for people to give up on their position, and it’s natural to double down. I think most people do it, myself included. The important thing to remember is that my view is objectively correct and everyone else is wrong. It’s just a matter of how much they are wrong relative to my objectively correct position.

I think to say he was not “fooling” guys, and or that he was not the right guy to start the 8th inning, isn’t all that easy to defend. It was definitely a nice catch by Riley. Certainly could have been a triple if it wasn’t caught but maybe it also looked amazing because Riley got a bad jump or is slow. I don’t think that means that Vest is the wrong guy to face the next batter because of it. Even with the benefit of hindsight, it’s not an easy call, but you seem to be really committed to this position. Guys are going to give up fly balls. That’s not a bad thing. Fly balls are the batted ball most often converted into an out. They can hurt you more if they aren’t caught, of course. But the mere act of giving them up isn’t bad. But you got me curious regarding whether we could determine if he was fooling anyone. Right before Riley caught a high fly ball, Vest got Soler to K swinging with runners on the corners and one out. I’m sure soler would have liked to hit a fly ball to the track with a guy on third, but maybe he was fooled. In the 8th, vest got Adell to ground out to start the inning. Gave up a single to right. Then got a ground out to second that wasn’t hit hard enough to be a double play. Then he got a fly ball that should have been caught to end the inning. He was at 16 total pitches in the game when Wenceel missed that catch for what would have been Vest’s fifth out in six batters. He then got the following batter, Neto, to swing at the 9th pitch of the at bat low and off the plate, a soft liner that hit him on the ass and would have been caught by McGonigle or Lee. You want to argue that Hinch should have had someone else up and available to face trout or Grissom, that’s fine, although I’m not sure that holton, finnegan, or Kenley would have been better matchups.

Yeah, that’s true, although Riley did catch the ball hit to him. I do wonder how it was him and not Vierling that got to him. Whether or not AJ should have pulled him because he gave up a fly ball that was caught in order to use an entirely different pitcher that probably isn’t good, I’m not so sure.

Ok, so best I can tell he had 6 seconds. And it’s looking like this one might be in the 95% bucket. It is comparable to the catch he made at the wall on May 1, where he had 6.1 seconds, 64 feet needed to cover.

I do not know and it’s certainly possible, mostly due to proximity to the wall. I don’t think it’s in the system yet because I looked at the videos for each of his “wall” opportunities and only one was a hit, and it wasn’t last night’s. This makes me want to just check and see how long wenceel had to get to that spot.

Perhaps. If you find the answer I’d like to see it. I don’t know how often this leaderboard is updated, but our friend Wenceel is way at the bottom if you are looking. https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/leaderboard/catch_probability we know he didn’t make last night’s catch, but from the above you can see that he hasn’t made a single 3-star catch or above all year. 3-star catches are in the 50-75% catch probability bucket. Not one. Every catch he has made has been one that is caught more than 75% of the time. He’s 7x8 in the 76-90 bucket, and 11x11 in the 90-100 bucket.

aren’t xBA and catch probability different concepts? One based on what the hitter did to the ball. The other based on how long the ball was in the air, where it landed, and where the fielder was positioned when the ball was hit.

It is important to me that I defend myself to a stranger on the internet and clarify again that I was paraphrasing what AJ said. I personally saw it and think it was bad for all of the reasons you mentioned and that we all saw multiple times. Wenceel is a bad outfielder.

Hard disagree. Of all the things that went wrong, not having someone already warmed after vest was forced into having to get multiple outs due to wenceel’s “defense” is way down the list for me. I don’t think AJ is in denial about anything. He was absolutely fine until he wasn’t. That specific scenario happens all the time, and it sucks when it happens to your team.

I was just paraphrasing AJ’s response. I saw it agree with you that the play should have been made. I will add that I think an average outfielders is comfortably below that ball without needing to reach or jump or anything of that nature. Can we look that up in one of the catch probability databases?

Always possible that the people you grant authority don’t actually have the skills to carry out management’s plan. That kind of applies across industries obviously and isn’t always immediately apparent. That said, I'm not sure how much that affects clubhouse leadership. Also hard to know what goes on behind the scenes. Kind of feels like clubhouse leadership is like the old pornogroahy definition. I don’t think Greene has it. Tork seems like he could be the type but unfortunately you do have be sort of good. Gleyber and Javy feel like they might have it but they aren’t out there. A guy like Neto for the angels, he seems to have it. He wasn’t shy about talking **** to Skubal last year. And then he goes out and shows it on the field. Yes, this is old school beat writer bull****. But I do think that you need a guy inside that can be a counter to Hinch’s professorial affect. It doesn’t need to be a white guy with a beard, but I wouldn’t mind seeing some actual emotion. This **** is piling up and it’s ok to lose your mind every once in a while. Leave the level-headed logical crap to management.

It was mostly confirmi my that it was bad. Vierling (“we”) didn’t play fast enough, kind of threw it in off balance, and Neto went all out and gave himself a chance to make a decision at third to capitalize on our mistake. Wenceel, it looked like he was tracking it and then suddenly he didn’t have it. Need to look at it closer to see if he made a bad decision or if it became uncatchable, but it seemed like it could have been caught. Diplomatic, but not hiding from it.

Yeah, I’m with AJ on this one. I’m all for challenging the manager on certain decisions, or getting a quote for his reaction to boneheaded plays, but the issue in this case not that Will Vest was left in too long. I saw the press conference video and he was pissed at the question. The follow up asking about vierling’s lazy throw and wenceel’s terrible fielding (in the vest inning) was well received and he gave a good answer. I didn’t catch who asked the question about the vest pitch count.

Tell me more about this malgieri. Is there anything about his performance that suggests his AAA success will transition better than workman? I’m not opposed to it, but is this guy someone people expect to stick? I’m with you in dumping Wenceel. I wouldn’t care if they dumped all of Wenceel, short, and McKinstry. Dump any two of them actually, and you can keep one as a treat.

McGonigle has played the entire game for at the last 18 games and basically every game this season. In these last 18 in a row, he has played 3B in 9 of them (4 full games and 5 games playing both SS and 3B). No one is saying Harris and Hinch are stupid people. But there are alternatives to being forced into using Zack Short. It’s not like they have no choice. They are choosing to use him, so it’s fair game to discuss that choice. Every game that has featured Zack short could have featured someone else in his lineup spot, with Kevin playing SS instead.

Just for argument’s sake, could we not simply call up Max A to see if he can hit major league pitching, and DFA short again? Kevin just had a day off yesterday. We can use workman there in an emergency. This is assuming McKinstry isn’t an option (but I’m not sure how much I believe my own theory; I think they just prefer him in the other spots and they have short on the roster so AJ gonna use him for that sweet sweet platoon advantage). These are now desperate times. Teams have been able to bounce back before in situations as dire as this, but they don’t do so by going 1-5 this week. Madden is also close to a return. The traditional solution is to send him to Toledo because there is no spot for him in the rotation for some reason. But I think this is the perfect opportunity to give Jack a break to clear his head and maybe come down with a mild oblique strain.