Screwball

That's amazing. I can't speak for all school systems except for the one I am familiar with - what a mess. I would guess they are not the only one. I teach a college STEM class at a local college, and also at a local vocational school filled with high school kids from 14 surrounding high schools. There is not much learning going on, and IMNSHO we are turning out a bunch of imbeciles. Have you had a geometry class? Yes, of course. What is a diameter? The size of a circle. What is a radius? Crickets. Great! One of the teachers told me he gave them a 15 question test on fractions. His entire class (17) missed all but 2. I had some downtime one day so to have a little fun I asked my class how many know how to make change (like from a cash register). Not a clue. Which is obvious when you go to a store - if the register didn't tell them the change - they would need a calculator. So I taught them how to make change. Wow! That's pretty cool. Yep. But they really exceptional with phones. And let it be noted; the two years of zoom classes and partial shutdowns did not help with the quality of learning one bit.

When he finds out he needs to eat? I couldn't help it, I'll let myself out.

Your quote is not quite the full story of our global energy logistics, politics, and most importantly - price - of crude oil. Sanctions matter to prices, especially on the world market. Our world depends (at this time) on oil. The cost of energy is trickle down, and expensive oil hurts the people who can least afford it. Crude hit 120 bucks a barrel early this morning, rolled over around 115 this afternoon (after some OPEC horseshit). Back in 2008 (July, check me) crude hit 147/bbl - and we all know what happened between 2008-2010 (some will blame the banks (raises hand)) but the burden on our people due to the cost of gas helped blow up that bubble. This country cannot, at this time, absorb 4 1/2 to 5 dollar prices at the pump for an extended period of time. The price of our gas is dictated by the price of crude on the world markets. Watch the crude tape - that will tell you how bad shit will get - the higher crude goes, the worse it will be. Everything else is all bullshit.

This is how the S&P traded around the Fed release. The red ellipse is the action at 2 when the release hits. I get a kick out of that stuff. Doesn't really change shit in the big picture, but fun to watch. The only thing that matters is the Fed's balance sheet.

This guy is a hoot too.

This guys always has some neat chart porn;

It is not a privilege to operate a business in a society. It is a matter of profit and loss. If you don't make enough money, you go out of business. That's the market. The market is us. No matter the shit show we have been bullshitted into believing in. What a spectacular day we had, speaking of the market. I'm guessing Jerome Powell isn't getting much sleep. Nor the other FOMC financial idiots.

You are exactly right. And I will add, you are a stat guy, so I respect your opinion. There are all kinds of studies out there one can read, and I've read quite a few. It all depends on how it is presented as you say - along with the agenda they are pushing. You can argue this until you run out of links and Twitter posts. Doesn't matter IMO. It gets political and then all bets are off - insanity ensues. My point - even the studies that show it doesn't work = also show, for some it did. Many make a poor case for why they don't as well. You never know, taking a few pills, no more risky than an aspirin, might save a life or two. I'm good with that.

Conspiracy theorists here. To the bold; that is simply not true. A buddy of mine and his wife got COVID back in October. They went to their family doctor here. He is one of the largest practices in town. What did he give them? Ivermectin - the human kind, which comes in pill form. The state of Tennessee just legalized the sale of the very same drug with no prescription needed. Tennessee governor signs law making ivermectin available without prescription It is also on the World Health Organizations list of essential medicines. Model List of Essential Medicines - WHO From the National Library of Medicine which is part of the NIH (yea, that one). Ivermectin for Prevention and Treatment of COVID-19 Infection: A Systematic Review, Meta-analysis, and Trial Sequential Analysis to Inform Clinical Guidelines One of these organizations gives dosages. I know this goes against what many believe, but facts are what they are. It works best as a prophylaxis, but "proper" studies show it is most effective proportionally to the time of infection. IOW, once you have symptoms - the sooner the better. It is off patent so it is cheap. You can buy a years supply for about a hundred bucks if used as a preventative. I'm sure heads are exploding at this point, so let's finish and do it up right. Why is it not used? Because of the EUAs. If a drug was found to work (in this case a re-purposed drug which accounts for around 20% of drugs prescribed by doctors) the emergency use authorization could not happen. Therefore, the vax makers can now make a killing. How much is Big Pharma making from COVID-19 vaccines? We’re about to find out - MarketWatch That isn't to say the vaccines are not good, or people shouldn't get them - but when you have a perfectly safe drug, given to billions worldwide, that shows effectiveness, is cheap and available - why the hell not take it? I know people right now who are fully vaxxed and still use it. The vaxxes only last for so long and they use this as a preventative. And I'll go one step further - once they came out and called it horse paste I knew it worked, at least to some extent. Nobody is saying it's a miracle drug, but proper studies show it can be effective. I think this is one of the biggest travesties of my lifetime.

Question for the music minds here. I noticed in Biffs list, a band called The Black Crowes. One of the founders, as I understand it, is a guy named Steve Gorman. He has a nightly syndicated radio show with a model named April Rose. Out of Nashville I think. Does anyone listen to them? I like the music, and his tales are pretty good. I also wonder how much is recycled material and the entire thing isn't even live. A guy calling in for a song could have been a week ago.

-10.6 as I type this. On edit: they released earnings today.

I think he made that quite clear long ago.

Another example; no N in FANG anymore (publicly traded edition)? From 700 to 166 in 6 months. Ouch! They have been overpriced since they started, and I'm not saying they were not worth something, but their business model depended on poaching. Without the "last mile" they are toast (like many others). Plan your NFLX position accordingly.

Notice this is from August of 2021. When you have pictures of rocks selling for 1.3 million dollars, somethings seriously fucked up. And it has gotten more crazy than that since. And now some of that idiocy is taking a big shit. Imagine that. I honestly have a hard time believing what I see today. But I'm crazy so that helps - and I have a good time. h/t Joe Walsh

There is an entertainment value to the now popular crypto vs. tulip parallel.

I never heard of it, but a buddy gave me a CD so I spun it up and watched it last night. Covers all the angles from Ford Motor Company to the racing world, and the people who participate. I thought it was well done, and with Bales and Damon chances are it will be pretty good. Mid 60s, muscle car era. It's easy to make them go fast, but in the road course environment they also have to brake. And go 200 mph. I did some research to see how accurate the move was to real life. One story I ran across was a guy who wanted to buy a GT40 at the local Ford dealer. He told the dealer he didn't want the 289. He wanted the 427. OK, so he test drove it, scared the shit out of him, and once back to the dealer said, "maybe I should get the 289. That was the 289.

Racing related. From 2019. Some have probably watched this. I thought it was really good.

This caught my eye today. I don't know how this picture will look so we'll see. The market gapped down and went south until around noon, then fiddled around and made the days low at 3:21. I don't remember how much the market was down at that time, but it was a bunch. FTR, I use the S&P. At 3:50 pm it printed a 32.17 increase in one minute. I would have to do the math, but what kind of money would it take to do that? Probably above my pay grade, but that is wild.

Some call this a stock pickers market.

And then some.

I haven't watched any of the Fed pressers in a long time other than a little today. But I got curious today and did a little poking around. The Fed announced an open ended buying of MBS March 15, 2020. If you look at the chart below, it is the exact day where you see a bubble that says 2191.86. Then look up and to the right and you will see a bubble that says 4818.62. That is Jan 4, 2022. That is a 3 year chart. As you can see, once you get to the top bubble, the market turns over. So what happened on the day of the second bubble? The date is Jan 4th. Did anything happen that day? Yep. Dow drops nearly 400 points in first loss of 2022, as traders brace for a more aggressive Fed The money line; Discussed reducing it's balance sheet... All 9 trillion of it. For context, a 5 year chart. Their balance sheet has expanded from 4 to 9 trillion (rounding) in the last 2 years. I wonder how much the total MBS purchases (over a trillion) actually add up to, and what we accomplished for creating all this money (I guess, since this isn't bonds, the debt isn't monetized, so where did it come from?). One thing we did was send the S&P some 2600 points higher, or quick, someone do the math - 120% if you hit bottom to top. And this is only a 2 year run. Ain't that friken sweet? Sure, but for who? How many people doubled their money in the last two years? Guessing it ain't most of us. And now they are talking about more rate hikes, limiting MBS purchases - in other words - taking away the punch bowl. Usual policy says when inflation is running hot you raise rates. The market expected 50bp, got it, then ripped to the upside, along with the rip went commodities, with crude closing around 108. Not helpful. We'll see where this goes, but the Fed has a market that turned over while we have a 8.5 inflation rate and a last quarter -1.4 GDP. Who you gonna save? Sure as fuck won't be us chumps.

Purchasing MBS started in 2009 when the bankers blew up the world, ended in 2010. Re-started in 2020 due to COVID, still going, and I don't think the dual mandate of the Fed includes being a home building cop.

From that bank rate article. The text is kind out of sequence, but the point valid. Speaking of the Fed, can anyone explain why they are buying MBS to begin with?