Will Kyle Schwarber be the first guy to hit 500 home runs not associated with roids and not make the hall of fame? He's got 361 and is on a nice pace to get to 500. Stanton has 456 but I can't see him playing enough to get 44 more.
Better yet, who gets to 500 among active players
Stanton 456, trout 417, Judge 385. Machado 378, goldschmidt 377, Harper 376, Freeman 373, schwarber 361, arenado 360, Santana 335, McCutchen 333, Suarez 328, Perez 312, olson 303, ozuna 301.
Judge should make it easily and I think Schwarber gets there. I don't think any if the other ones do. Judge and trout are the same age but I feel like trout is on his last legs. Machado has a big contract for the next 6 or 7 years but he is Spencer torkelson level of awful right now.
Harper is interesting. He'll have to hit 25 a year for the next 5 years. I just don't think he'll do it.