LongLiveMaroth

Kiley's thoughts on our Draft Best value: Bryce Rainer, SS, No. 11 overall Where best player drafted ranks on team list: 4th (Rainer) Sleeper to watch: Ethan Schiefelbein, LHP (No. 72). I saw Schieflbein pitch a few times over the summer, but he had another gear when I saw him this spring at the NHSI tournament. He was toying with hitters, throwing a fastball 88 mph then the next one at 95 mph; I had to check my video to make sure these weren't different pitches. He threw four average or better pitches and showed plus control from a projectable 6-foot-2 frame. One big thought: The Tigers' new regime clearly still isn't scared of taking high school players with top picks, but it usually leans into safer sub-demographics within prep players -- for instance, last year's top picks of Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle: up-the-middle prep hitters with long track records of hitting, the ideal group of high school players. Rainer draws questions from some analytical types on his hit tool due to his mediocre summer and being old for the draft class, but scouts aren't worried. Schiefelbein gave me Zack Greinke vibes in terms of advanced pitchability in high school while Owen Hall and Zach Swanson fit into the riskier power righty demographic, but both have good breaking pitches.

Going through Fangraphs recap of Day 2-3 of the draft I read this and it got me thinking. Is this an exploit for teams willing to spend the money as the Tigers have shown over the last couple years to get an influx of better talent? The team has built the new Dominican facilities and has shown the ability to open up the purse strings for a better experience and work life for its MiLB players. We Just Had the Fewest High School Players Drafted, Ever At least, within 20 rounds, excluding the five-round 2020 draft. Some of this is specific to the talent makeup of this class, which was light on high schoolers. You know the feeling you get when you first open a bag of chips and see how few are actually in there? That’s what is felt like scouting this high school class last summer. There are other forces at play here as well. Player development is more costly now because of necessary changes made to how minor leaguers are paid and housed. MLB has slashed away 60 minor league affiliates from its clubs’ farm systems in response to the increase in per player cost, and also cut the draft in half, from 40 rounds to 20. A reduction in minor league roster spots and the lack of post-draft, short-season affiliates (the old Northwest, Appalachian, and Pioneer Leagues), where newly drafted college players often began their careers, creates a talent bottlenecking effect at the college level. Major League Baseball (note the capitalization — I’m referring to the business entity here) has an incentive to outsource player development to college baseball, and it’s a symbiotic relationship because the NCAA would love to have a more talented and watchable “product.” I’ve asked people if the pull of NIL money in college is part of the equation, and while it certainly is as far as choosing a school and navigating the transfer portal is concerned, people with big league teams have consistently told me that the new money flying around college baseball hasn’t really impacted their ability to sign players. Colleges have offered some players a lot of money to transfer or stay at their school (the highest rumored amount is in the mid-six figures), but even if, say, Texas A&M is offering you $500,000 or so to stick around, if the Angels draft you in the third round, your bonus is going to be much bigger than that.

BA's Review of our draft. I won't post it all but they called out the fact we took high-upside prep (which Mark Connor is known for) and 3 JUCO's. Below is just their review of the Swanson pick. Most Interesting Day 2 Pick: RHP Zach Swanson, 9th round The Pacific Northwest has been something of a powerhouse in recent years when it comes to producing prep pitchers. Swanson is next in a line that has recently included players like Noble Meyer, Mick Abel and JR Ritchie. Swanson is a 6-foot-3, 195-pound righthander who has a power arsenal and was a consistent performer throughout the 2023 showcase circuit. He sits in the 91-95 mph range with a high-spin fastball that looks like an above-average offering and has ripped off an above-average slider in the low 80s that also has high spin rates in the 2,600-2,800 rpm range. The slider generates whiffs against righties and lefties and is thrown with frisbee-like sweeping shape at its best. He has also mixed in an occasional straight changeup at 84-87. While Swanson posted consistently on the circuit, scouts noted that his control was a question mark during his spring season with Toutle Lake High and some scouts think his high-effort delivery will push him into a reliever role in the future. Swanson is committed to Oregon State.

FCL L 7-6 Fana 0/3 RBI BB K Hernandez Jimenez 0/3 Salas 2/3 2RBI HR Perez 1/2 BB K Wilson 3IP 7H 6ER BB 4K (6.62 ERA 😬) (Between work trips and vacations I have been slacking but should be back with your regularly scheduled updates on Monday)

You draft talent, not timelines.

I just confused on how this would be on ownership. Seems like an unnecessary jump.

I highly doubt ownership will be the deciding factor here but don't let that get in the way of a good ol' dead horse beating of Illitch being a bad owner.

He's honestly hit a bit of a lull after a fast start. July is not looking like a good month so far. That being said he is #21 on the list by BA.

Dickson made it into the Top 30 of BA's updated midseason list. He was 30 but hey still listed.

07/16/24 FCL Tigers placed LHP Blake Dickerson on the 7-day injured list retroactive to July 15, 2024. Hopefully nothing too bad but their season is almost over anyways

Law's read of our draft The Tigers went all-in on high school players early again, a year after a draft that brought them their top two hitting prospects in Max Clark and Kevin McGonigle. Shortstop Bryce Rainer (1) was the top high school player on my board, a no-doubt shortstop with a 70 arm and plus power, including strong exit velocities to back it up. He’s a heady, instinctive player who shows good leadership on the field. I didn’t see great bat speed from him and I want to see him show he can turn on major-league average velocity. Right-hander Owen Hall (2) was one of the best high school projection guys in the class, working 90-94 now and touching 97 with a ton of room to fill out and gain some more velocity over time. His slider is plus and he spins the ball well, with a delivery that he repeats pretty well when he gets all the way around to land online to the plate. If I were drafting, which MLB still refuses to let me do because of some silly rule that I don’t actually work for a team, he’s exactly the kind of high school arm I’d target after the first round. Lefty Ethan Schiefelbein (2B) was a reach for me at this spot, as he’s just low-90s without a ton of projection and his primary offspeed pitch is a slow 12/6 curveball. He’s completely off balance when he finishes his delivery, although I like how well he stays over the rubber before striding forward. He’s committed to UCLA. Josh Randall (3) transferred to San Diego from Arizona this year after a poor freshman season in Tucson and a sophomore season limited to one inning by injury. He broke out in every way this year, throwing a 95-96 two-seamer with ridiculous sink and tail and a short upper-80s slider, generating a groundball rate over 55 percent. The right-hander has a low three-quarters slot and he doesn’t repeat the arm swing that well. I’d expect a bigger platoon split but he was actually better against lefties this spring, even without much use of his changeup. He hit 25 batters this spring, a 7.6 percent HBP rate, which is not a stat I typically have to calculate and was one off the NCAA lead which was, oddly, a pitcher at San Diego State. Too many fish tacos = too many hit batsmen? Wake Forest right-hander Michael Massey (4) moved to the rotation this spring, making short starts on Sundays until his hamstring and back took him out of action, and when he returned he was back in relief. He had back surgery after the season to repair a bulging disc. He has an extremely short arm action, getting up to 95 with a hard slider, struggling enough against lefties that he almost certainly sticks in relief. Notre Dame shortstop Jack Penney (5) hit just .269/.406/.492 this spring and didn’t hit .300 in any of his three seasons in South Bend, although he does make hard enough contact — he just rarely swings, with more walks than strikeouts thanks to a 38 percent swing rate. Oregon State commit Zach Swanson (9) is 92-95 with some arm-side run from an abrupt, rushed delivery that gives him a head-whack and definitely inhibits his command. The right-hander has a solid frame and plenty of projection left, with a lot of work to do to end up a starter. UNC-Wilmington right-hander R.J. Sales (10) was 93-94 as a starter with a power curveball in the low 80s and a hard cutter up to 89. His delivery is fine, with a high three-quarters slot, but it’s 45 command and control and the fastball plays down just enough that he may be more of a long man than a back-end starter — unless he boosts his strike-throwing.

I mean cheapish, you won't find a perfect 1:1 but I would say this is close.

https://www.mlb.com/news/pipeline-podcast-best-value-picks-in-2024-mlb-draft?partnerID=web_article-share Swanson listed as best in round 9

Would the last comparable trade be Sale to Boston in 2016 for a Skubal comparison? Moncada was #2 and Kopech was top 20 and there were two fliers along with that.

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/a-rundown-of-relievers-on-the-trade-block/ Fangraphs calling out Vest, Chafin and Foley as potential trade targets.

Always appreciate your knowledge and opinions Mark

Mayer, Kyle Teal and a couple others and I'd sign up.

A team a lot of people may be discounting here are the Red Sox. They have the farm system and have over performed. I could see them offering some high end prospects for Skubal to go along with Houck and Pivetta.

Not my idea or trade but would you do this?

And if you can't match that expectation or believe it is too high we'll just keep the expected Cy Young for a couple more years 🤷‍♂️