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Everything posted by gehringer_2
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My nephew used to work for these guys and he knew what he was doing, now that he's gone on to bigger and better things I couldn't say..... https://www.bestbuy.com/site/geek-squad/geek-squad-data-recovery/pcmcat748300502324.c?id=pcmcat748300502324 When you say does not get recognized do you mean it's offering to format it because it doesn't see anything on it, or it doesn't even assign a drive letter (assuming windows here.....) or if Mac doesn't mount it?
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probably more like 2
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LOL - I would put it exactly the other way, to me throwing your hands in the air is just importing more low wage workers into the economy instead of letting the economy restructure itself properly to an equilibrium population distribution. But it's not a black and white choice. If we have a rationalized immigration system, many people who come in will initially pick up slack in services like nursing, health care etc. I just don't like the trap logic that there is some kind of imperative to immigrate your way out of eventual population decline. That's exactly the recipe for social upheaval because you basically are justifying the position of 'replacement theory' immigration opponents.
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The above is a good point. For sure there are white collar places where retirements have always tended to come later. e.g, my FIL was a CPA who kept a hand in part time doing corporate tax work right up to the year he passed. OTOH, most of my immediate circle have been engineers, tech area workers, teachers etc, and other than a little consulting we have all bailed. I was about the last person in my circle to hang it up.
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I think are already past the worst of if. US fertility rate peaked in 1957 and those folks are already past the most typical retirement age. We are actually starting to enter the boomer die off, which will start reducing a huge aged services load/drag from the economy. The first post WWII babies will be turning 80 in a year.
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yes - but that is an inevitability at some point before we are all standing shoulder to shoulder in our 1 ft sq allotment of the planet, so whether we learn to deal with a leveling or decreasing population today to in 10 or 30 yrs it's something every country is going to have to learn to handle. More workers have been retiring in Japan than joining the workforce for some time and they have figured out how to cope. The already undesirable pressure of current populations is something the species collectively already has a strong instinctive understanding of which is why in almost every nation where people have a choice, fertility is declining. A set of economic theory assumptions (we must have more laborers!) that fly in the face of what every 1st world population is choosing for itself is a priori a failed one.
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Labor is a market. Just because the pay required to pull people in may be more than fits with peoples' preconceptions of what someone in a given field should be earning, that doesn't mean there isn't still a market price where the demand is met. And in the case of construction labor, it's is the fact that is can be so cyclical that means you will indeed have to pay more to pull in the peak marginal worker who knows he may have to go back to something else in two years.
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The Wings are beyond depressing. In most of every game they play, the opposing players on the ice play with more speed, skill and creativity than the Wings players on the ice do. That's just no fun to watch at all. They aren't just bad, they are supremely boring.
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well one obvious way is wages have to climb until those jobs become as desirable as the ones people are more busy chasing, or you can import labor. "I can't fill these jobs" is just whinging by employers who have grown fat and happy with low cost labor inputs and can't fill them at the price they want to pay. But every task has a price where people will start lining up to do it/learn it. Of course nothing is free. If labor costs go up, the normal business response is to off shore those jobs that can be moved. How possible that is depends on government policy. All that is basically today's status quo - how we go to where we are today. To me, importing labor just to import labor is the absolute worst justification - it's basically just the old 'manifest destiny' unbounded growth idea and on a planet with 7 billion going on 10 billion people we need to get over it. It's OK if a nation's population gets smaller and if the US makes fewer widgets for fewer people. It makes me tear at what little hair I have left when I hear people think it's some kind of strategic crisis if the population doesn't just keep growing unbounded. If you ask me what immigration policy should be, it would be a reasonable process for true political refugees, and a reformed and probably expanded H1 program to allow people with expertise and ambition to keep entering and providing the innovation drive that they always have. I do not believe it is the US's responsibility to fix Central and South America by simply importing their populations. The good question is where are the 'reasonable' lines? I think one useful marker is looking at the durability and growth of foreign language enclaves. If you are bringing in so many people that you are generating stable societies within a society with as many or more people entering than are assimilating, than you are at the point were you are courting public backlash and social tension, which to me are the bottom line for where the control point should be. In the end, I don't think the answer if found by what business wants or economic policy or what a particular moral stance would argue, I think it's always the more practical question of what the current population wants to tolerate because at any given time it's their country. And if a historically immigrant population want to practice the hypocricy of pulling up the ladder behind them, in a democracy they have that right and you will simply lose elections arguing the case with them. I don't know exactly where those lines are, but when you have a public as energized around reducing immigration as the US is, you've crossed them.
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2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
FWIW, Beck did a piece on Navigato in August talking up his bat but he also said the glove was not likely to play as a full time MLB shortstop. -
2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
RIzzo is toast that's already been cut and buttered. -
Whose narrative? I try always not to care what people I shouldn't care about think!
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Only 27. Seems like he's already been around forever. Maybe because he looks 40.... 😉
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Holl. Finally gets the puck on the PP and makes a blind clear right back to a Hab. Open your eyes man. A couple of minutes later Petry, under no pressure, outlets the puck right back to a Hab. This team can't make the simplest plays like competent professionals.
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hey, the Wings aren't being out shot. (yet)
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this also
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everyone at his funeral service should speak as Rickey in the 1st person, as the symmetry to the fact that he never did.... 😢
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And here I thought Hooker was already the next understudy waiting to be an all-star. 😳
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2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
good. -
as pointless as it is to point out that Trump is a political black swan and any prior rules may not apply, I will none the less note that Trump is a lame duck from the moment he swears in on 1/20 so unless he really does intend to declare martial law and suspend the constitution, it is at least historical precedent for him to suffer the same fate as almost every 2nd term president - which is not getting much of what he wants while watching all the leaders in his own party angling for how to replace him.
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I suppose you can say that in any election where the sides change, but given the retention in the House and he small loss in the Senate in an already unfavorable year (more Dems seats at play), the party didn't fair as badly as the top of the ticket. Obviously the high level of enthusiasm Harris generated among the party faithful wasn't translating beyond it. You can as easily and maybe more accurately blame the loss on Biden for not realizing soon enough he would not be a viable candidate. If there had been a full democratic primary season the candidate that emerged might have had broader appeal. But I think that argument is more attractive in hindsight than in reality - when a party primary tosses a VP that's usually a party too fractured to win anyway. Heck, maybe the die was already cast when Biden won the primary in 2020 and made Harris his VP. Biden's age and likelihood his VP would end up the next candidate, Harris' lack of broader appeal were all known issues then if anyone had wanted to recognize them.
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Abortion and the Politics of Reproductive Rights in the Post-Roe Era
gehringer_2 replied to chasfh's topic in Politics
yup, and with this SCOTUS it would happen. -
2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
So this SW doesn't do sub threading, so sometimes if I don't quote a post in a reply to the topic generally, but then someone injects a post in between which make a left turn the logic ends up not following at all, so more often I just quote the last post in the line to indicate an append to the topic at hand. So sue me..... -
IDK, If Trump throws Elon overboard, DJT walks away debt free with the result of all of Elon's election spending and twitter manipulation to get him elected. Could be the best deal he ever made.
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Merkel made the same mistake that American immigration progressives make, which is believing that because allowing refugees to emigrate is a moral thing to do, it is a politically/socially possible thing to do, and it simply is not. A leader may be laudable for their moral principles but they can't govern successfully by assuming their populations share their beliefs or are willing to accept the inevitable social costs of acting on those beliefs or by assuming the emigres that come will be the perfect assimilators they might be. And to be honest, it was not all moral rectitude on Merkel's part that led to Germany's open door, it was more than a little bit of old style Imperialist worry that declining birth rates might move Germany down the GDP list if they didn't start accepting large numbers of new workers.