gehringer_2

Also correct. On shoring will be highly inflationary. In fact the macro argument/justification for allowing/encouraging off-shoring in the first place has always been 'lower prices!." Nothing in that basic calculus has changed much. The wage differential to China has shrunk a good deal, but now you have other low wage Asian and SA workers doing low wage work that has already left China.

an individual at the point of sale maybe, but when rates were going up the industry as a whole had an interest in not writing assumable mortgages, which is when they largely disappeared for a time.

The problem is that manufacturing capacity doesn't just appear overnight. It took decades for manufacturing to off shore, it will take years of steady effort and investment if we make a decision to re-shore. Tariffs are only the carrot, they don't do anything to help get any productive capacity on-line. So maybe after 5 yrs of recession the US looks more like 1960? That's 2 House cycles and 3/2 of the Senate standing for re-election in serious recession? Sure. When Trump was floating tariffs in his 1st term the had no re-investment incentive plans and he still doesn't.

right - and it's really only going to be common when rates are relatively stable. When they are going up, the lender has no incentive, when they are going down, the buyer has no incentive. The other thing that is much different from ages past is the way mortgages are securitized. You have mortgage originators who then become mortgage servicers because the note itself has been securitized and sold off. That changes the incentive structure compared to a bank that used to hold mortgages to their discharge.

Correct - to assume you have to buy out the current owner's equity, whatever that is. But then again, a lot of people keep pulling equity out of their homes as fast as they accrue it, so there are probably still some good candidates out there. 🤷‍♀️

Hinch made an appearance on MLB the other night and his comments on Javy were very pointedly in two separate parts: 'Have to get him healthy' and 'Have to get him in the strike zone', not "Have to get him healthy so he will be back in the strike zone'. I would read that say that Hinch is not really expecting that the hip repair is the fix to Javy's problems with the bat.

IDK, I'd read a little less. I take it as he was repeating the company line from the end of the season and until there is some actual performance to look at (eg ST) there's nothing more to add. To say he was making improvements when there is no game result to validate it would be getting out over his skis (and setting a fan expectation) more than I think Harris is wont to do.

I've seen that a few lenders have started allowing mortgage assumptions, which were once very common, but I don't know if there is any significant movement in that direction. They can at least make a few bucks on fees even if they don't get to write a new note at a higher rate.

The other thing is that there are people still out there, mostly those too young to remember before before 2001, who think that rates are headed back down to 1% or less again, they're not. The end point for the fed rate in a normal world is going to be in the 2.5-4% range so whether they do it in '25 or not until '26, short terms rates aren't going all that much lower anyway. if you have a 5% mortgage, learn to be happy with it.

the run up was funny money, the run down is funny money.

Ever since the species began to think, it has struggled with a way to justify a set of ethics/morals that seem to have a level of universal appeal. In religious systems this is easy - you don't have think too much about why something is right if God told you it was right. But as religiosity fades in Western culture, we'd sort of like to get to a way to argue for that system of morality that we are all comfortable with, that has evolved from the Hebrews and Greeks and for the last 2 millennia, to the western Christian church, by some non-religious means, but philosophically it's not that easy, though folks have been working at it for hundreds of years. To me when you say you are a 'cultural' Christian what you are saying is that you'd like to keep living in the moral milieu of the western Christian church but without the old man in the sky and the Church's downside baggage but you don't have a totally clear idea how to argue for your morality without them. (yes - I'm being a little arch - but just a little)

Same reason we still have diplomat ties with Saudi Arabia after the Kashoggi murder. I would have to think that any administration's concern over airing Saudi dirty laundry in the American media and the foreign policy implications probably had more to due with a decision to let it lie than whatever the facts of the case might have been wrt American law.

as always, the decision is which is more or less crooked, because it makes a difference.

I hope no-one here does, but it's certain a view with currency among right wing evangelicals. The word "you" in English is marvellously slippery. You asked a question where I parsed the "you" as the general "you" which would include the people I'm talking about.

I don't mind Congress Critters being well paid - there are a lot of places in the Country where $250K is not great shakes for a professional. But the payback ought to be tighter financial ethics rules and an end to private money campaign finance slush funds. I know - dream on.....

I'm not so naive to think bad people can't pursue beneficial political policies (often accidental to some other not so beneficial objective!) and vice versa, but to anyone who supports Trump *because* they think he is some kind of latter day Christian Paladin, I would say you are deluded.

Costs of services keep going up because wages are at the bottom end are rising, which at least is a good thing for those folks. If any large number of undocumented are expelled that will only increase upward pressure on entry level service salaries, so I'd expect the trend to continue. The 25 basis points probably won't have much effect on any of that either way. Interest rates have more effect on the capital intensive parts of the economy but services tend to be low cap. I'd like to see the Fed unwind more of their balance sheet, which is also a deflationary tactic, but since doing more of that puts pressure on bank profits I'm not holding my breath.

But we don't own the threads we post in or even the subtopics within. When someone adds another issue to a thread that's their option (up to the limits of the moderation) and the OP doesn't need to feel obligated to defend or police any subsequent direction the discussion goes. You questioned the logic, Rob said why he thought it was appropriate and on we go.

More of it if they get Flaherty!

I suppose all one can do is hope that if these people actually start looking into things with a little energy they may learn something about how ignorant they are currently are, but that's probably expecting too much. (this is actually the real reason that people on the outside complain that the bureaucracy 'captures' people - it's generally because once on the inside one-time bomb throwers learn they didn't understand how things really work.)

I'd argue the Tiger's current state is way beyond 'Pre-Pudge' but be that as it may, the more basic argument that Mid-American cities are not the 1st choice of free agents remains, regardless of whether the teams are good or not - simply because the secondary revenue potential is lower. Objectively, the team that starts the season in '25 is going to look a lot more like the team that finished by playing 600 ball for 2 1/2 months than the team that stumbled out of the gate in '24 so I don't know how much more ready they will ever be.

It is a paradox, dilemma, whatever. Those Churches that in theory would have the moral authority to be critical of their brethren mostly aren't, because it's not the kind of thing they do, exactly because they are what they are. But non-evangelical US Christianity could use some kind of re-brand to distinguish itself from the politicos.

The Torah is a pretty frightening thing to read carefully. I'd actually call it schizophrenic - there is the first glimmering of NT/SOTM theology in there, but it struggles to emerge from the scorched earth, vengeance laden, 'kill 'em all' bronze age ethos that mostly predominates.

LOL - well, the religious aren't doing a very good job of it so somebody has to.

https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/43026688/mlb-study-identifies-factors-rise-pitching-injuries Nothing too surprising here, but good that they are trying to get a better handle on what is going on. It does make you wonder/worry about Skubal though. JV could hit triple digits and he's had a long career, but JV would mostly build up to it during a game, or show it here and there. He used to add and subtract from his FB a lot so he wasn't always throwing pedal to the metal all the time. I think if Skubal expects to pitch for very long he benefit from learning to do the same.