gehringer_2

true, but in the background is that 30 million more people voted in 2020 vs 2016. That's a 21% increase in the electorate and a 23% increase in the Dem electorate. Those are seismic differences. So of course if you look inside those populations you see shifts in what the breakdowns are, but when you look a those breakdowns you are now looking at a different set of people to a larger degree than normal. That is always true to some degree but uncommonly huge between those two elections. The question is how many individual people moved vs how many people added to populations were in a different place to begin with. That's a non trivial question in terms of strategy implications. When you add the state wide election results since 2020, it's also hard to see decay in the democratic voting coalition. So I do get concerned that if effort spent on the unpersuadable comes at the expense of motivating lazy friends it's a potential strategic error. Now in truth, most campaign activities should cut both ways - we hope.

well you have your location and then you have your articulation....😉 It's a common enough ambiguity though. Your calf moves your foot, but if your calf hurts you'd probably say the pain was in your leg. +1 on the graphic ("Scarlett O'Hara's Halloween")

This is true, but it's sort of like brushing your teeth. You don't need to be told you should, and that bad things will happen if you don't, but that doesn't mean your dentist doesn't stop encouraging you because it still helps.

fair enough. Win the battle, without losing sight of the war.

yup. Manafort = Russia.

no doubt 12-14 was pretty good, but 'playoff period' takes me back all the way to '06.

right. Had the core surgery in Jan of '14, but came back and wasn't right. Went to the DL to start '15 supposedly with a tricep issue but Verlander later said he went to his own doc and the real issue was his back. Anyway after a poor finish is '15 he rehabbed differently in the off-season and was pretty much back in '16, but he still wasn't trusting his FB until '17 when he started throwing it up again, lowered his arm angle to where it had been in the past (he had raised it to try to recover ost velo during back and core issues) and by mid '17 he had pretty much recovered the full arsenal. There was a lot of talk about the slider improving in Houston, and maybe it did, it I've always believed it was recovery the classic Verlander fastball in/around May-June 17 before the trade that drove everything else.

and I will say it again - it's being fought 1st and foremost over turn out. The dems don't need to persuade a single soul that they don't like Trump. They only have to remind those that already think that way how important it is to vote the preference they already have. Too much media focus on what might or might not change minds - that's not the relevant battle. It's about motivating those whose minds you already have.

The thing that always got me about Andre was his weak hands. IDK if it was just because he didn't train or maybe it was just his physiology, but you seldom see a big man get the ball just plain taken away from him or so unable to power through a foul to the basket as Andre. And sort of a curious combination in a guy who could rebound so well.

Mistake is at step 5. No reason to give Trump credit for nuance. Ever. Responses like the one in Romad's post are the correct way to go. They may be learning.

some years were obviously better than others, but in the span from 2006 to 2014, reguar rotation starters for the Tigers in a season included: Nate Robertson, Zach Minor, Mike Maroth, Chad Durbin, Brad Penny, Phil Coke, Alfredo Simon, a few seasons of Rick Porcello during his disappearing fastball phase, and a highly disinterested version of David Price. I'd have loved to have Reese Olson in front of any of those guys.

yup - but that doesn't mean you don't make sure that you reach the people that are reachable. One of the postmortems of Hillary's loss was that they there were too willing to concede too many votes they could have won but decided weren't worth the effort to pursue. You really only know that was effective in retrospect.

I'm not knowledgable enough to be able to break down the details, but it just seems teams have adjusted to the game wings like to play and the wings haven't been able to compensate. Coaching or talent? Probably both. My general impressions is that wings almost play a too strictly position oriented game. Maybe it's players without the recognition to be able to switch roles moment by moment with need or maybe Lalonde doesn't want them to, but I think that is part of why Larkin is so much the centerpiece, because that his game.

yeah - I don't get the 'trim the sails' advice. Play hardball and go for the jugular all the way. Today's elections are not Marquis of Queensberry affairs, esp going against Trump. Good Lord, when you have the massive advantage in facts and truth why would not hammer every point as hard as it can be hammered?

Even in the playoff years the number 5 and often number 4 starters were sort band aid and chewing gum guys. Pitchers you just hoped could avoid taxing the BP in the loss while you won a lopsided percentage of Verlander and Scherzer starts. The *apparent* starting depth for this team is pretty extraordinary - maybe we are too close to it to appreciate it. And of course injury could disappear it all in short order, which given recent history is probably what keeps us all from reaching any irrational exuberance.

This is probably true.

Would there be tax liability? If someone pays your bond is that a gift? A loan with an imputed value? Beats me but inquiring minds want to know.

One would hope that is pretty obvious. One's hopes might well be dashed. /..sigh.../

One can never leave the owner out of all consideration when it comes to a sports team - just sayin' Consider a conversation like this between CI and SH: CI: so how are you going to decide on the rotation. They all look so close SH: they are, it's a tough call. But either way they will likely all pitch for us this season CI: If their performance is a wash, I think it would be good for the franchise to be able to spotlight the news of Casey's recovery SH: ?????? Is he gonna say no?

reverse hex?

So I think you can break it down along these lines - but they are all a reach: Mize: might not be ready i.e. walk rate Manning: tended to be inconsistent last season, when he was off he was very off. Needs to go prove he's going to lay fewer eggs Olson: If he is sent down I think it will mostly just be that the org thinks the other two have the higher ceiling. On the other side: Mize is the golden child. Again we don't know if that means anything to this org or not and they may still believe in his ceiling. Manning: the hardest to hit when he is pitching well Olson: Highest floor?

True, but somebody has to go, what ever reason is looking like it will be a flimsy one. It’s all provisional anyway, someone is going to blow an elbow. Not a matter of if, only when.

A little break for officers that get busted... 😱 j/k

In Mize's favor is his velo, which I don't think has been seen consistently this good since his college days. My guess is Olson goes down - in part because he doesn't have the modern MLB starter frame and they may doubt he would hold up a whole season starting from April. I've read various reports that he has added upwards of 25lbs to his still listed 160lbs roster weight, but even 185 makes him a relative squib to hold up throwing 95. Maeda is that size but he's a junk baller so it doesn't really count....

of course the guys from 'Nam are in their 70's now. At that age you've pretty much either gotten off the street or it's killed you.