gehringer_2

That's probably what Mikhail Khodorkovsky thought too.

Yup, that is a very good take. He hits something I think the Democrats have probably made a mistake in not talking more about - the number of ordinary people Trump has cheated over the years. That would probably have more traction with the working class white male than much of the democratic message focus.

Mize can throw 97 which means he will continue to get looks, if not from us from someone, but the fact that his performance pretty much got worse all season is not in his favor. Torkelon at least was an increment better after his return then when he was sent down; needs to add another increment to that to hold down his gig.

and if that is how to do it right, Boeing giving a clinic in how to do it wrong. Second contract proposal goes down to defeat by the rank and file. FWIW, if the reporting is correct, mostly over 5% on the wage increase. Boeing management apparently still high on their own supply.

All politics is personal. I'm have to believe Bash still has a bruised ego after Harris' bested her by not giving her anything she wanted in the earlier interview and so this is what you get.

Sometimes the candidate is the problem.

very quick bat, so he doesn't get fooled that much - and results in a relatively low K rate for a modern player. Like Riley he falls into over swing mode too much. It's so hard to get young players (and old ones for that matter) to understand the physics that at their bat speed levels, barreling the ball is more important than swinging the bat hard(er).

Need to send Torkeson to train with Max (who BTW is too young to have ever had a Rolodex!)

It's a good sign but still not determinative. The best hitter in the world against AFL pitching still might wash out against MLB velo and spin. Until a hitter finally faces the best, it remains, hints, allegations and things left unsaid.

This is disgusting on Halperin's part. If he doesn't believe it's true, he shouldn't be teasing it and if he does then out with it man. What a little click baiting twerp.

correct, but we never saw what her statewide numbers would have been against a GOP candidate. Even If there are people in her old district that decided they like her and will vote for her and Trump that still doesn't tell us that much about why she should be that far ahead statewide. One Congressional district is only about 7% of the State.

well, that was your 1st mistake..... (it's OK though, I have to plead guilty to having purchased a Bonneville 'B' body station wagon back in the day.....)

I guess I'm missing something. Slotkin wasn't on a state-wide ballot in 2020. This is an open seat.

This reminds me of the book I'm currently reading "Nexus" (Yuval Harari). One of his primary premises is that we have to get over the fallacy that good information has any tendency to 'float to the top' or drive our bad as is commonly assumed, it won't and it doesn't.

and if you don't know, 'tossup race' is your least controversial forecast.

It's hard to figure, but Tom Bonior has posted enough analysis showing that some pollsters are definitely putting their thumbs on the scale that it's hard to argue it isn't happening. I have a hard time seeing the 'why' as well. I think what is confusing is that we need to realize that at this point the two campaigns have opposite agendas for their polling and if you accept that, what we're seeing can at least be fit into a more rational framework. For Trump, the perception of strength, inevitability, validation of his alternate reality, is vital to preserve and that whole edifice requires constant reinforcement, so Trump is going to demand polls that show him leading regardless of whether it's true or not, and if you are willing to pay, you can get someone to cook up the results you want. OTOH, the Dems narrative for this election is as the underdog and turnout is the imperative. They have decided that getting pedal to the metal commitment is best served by making sure there is no tendency to get out in front of their skis. For them, if their internals are behind, they have no particular need to add to the gloom, and if they are ahead, they still don't feel too much need to take on the close race narrative coming from polls other than a few voices like Bonior.

That's what stands out to me as well. The one reasonable argument you could make for Biden voters to fall away from Harris would be the misogyny angle, but the Michigan numbers fly in the face of that as well, why would that anti woman voter support Slotkin? You have to posit a voter with a very particular misogynist angle who thinks a woman senator is OK but not a woman Pres. Possible, but Occam's razor pushes hard in the other direction.

If they finish hammering out a system where the schools pay the athletes directly and the TV contracts are distributed equally, any school lucky enough to have leveraged itself into one of the major conferences left standing won't be more than good coach hire away from making noise. And the thing is the draw is always about winning. Mich and USC draw because they win, if they start to lose and Indiana starts to win, then after a few years IU will pull better ratings - I don't think the average fan has that long a memory. Depth of tradition may matter to the alums, and that give you some kind of base, but alums are never more than a minor piece of the audience in a top match up.

I suppose in part because Trump being Trump, if he wins after a big poll miss they are afraid he'll find some way to target the pollsters. Or maybe, and I think this is more likely, the pollsters themselves are very uncertain of their data, so the best hedge is to keep adjusting the models to keep it near enough to even that a win will be within margin of error no matter which way it goes.

all you can say is that if this is true, the mismatch between their surveying and the elections poll surveys is nothing short of massive because if Trump losses 25% of Haley's vote I see no way the election is actually close.

the only place I might go a little further than Ezra is in stressing harder that the continuing decay of his inhibition is very likely associated with an ongoing process of frontal lobe function loss.

21-7? 😢

That relates to the skating issue to me. If he had shown the kind of wheels Mickey implied we would see, he could have gotten away with being less physical, but as I noted, I never thought his skating rose quite to that level.

What I remember most with Walman was that when he first got here, Redmond couldn't stop talking about what a great skater he was, but after that build up I was pretty underwhelmed with what we got. I'll grant he had above average wheels but Mickey made it sound like we were going to be seeing the next Paul Coffey. But I can also believe there may have been questions about his motivation - he wasn't always the most consistent player.

I think it's simpler than that. They make a lot of money and they don't want to pay higher marginal tax rates anymore than investment bankers with money do.