gehringer_2

But the other factor here is not to underestimate American women. They are still mad as heII over Dobbs and the Alabama decision has just pored huge fuel on an already raging fire there.

yes the Palestinians have been screwed, but how you chose to fight back matters. Gandhi got the Brits out of India without acting like Hamas, Mandela broke the Apartheid government without acting like Hamas, MLK fought hard to keep his movement non-violent, rejecting the Panther's militant direction. There is a level at which it is unavoidable that populations have to be responsible for the outcomes in their midst. It is never fair on the individual level, but that is how the world works.

It's been discussed here that right now there is so much cultural baggage/personal identity tied up for republicans in being republican that it's sort of unprecedented how difficult it is to pry a repub away from their party. At some point that should regress to a more historical norm, but who knows when the fever will start to break.

It's definitely hard to keep the American voter engaged, though Trump at least is giving the Dems as much help as they should need with the continuing stream of outrageous statements. Of course let's not forget the other side. In the last 4 years the economy has improved more for blue collars than any other part of the economy. They might not be willing to thank Biden for it, but that is letting air out of voter motivation to get to the polls in that segment of the economy, and that could hurt Trump big time in terms of red voter apathy - though I've yet to hear it talked about. TBH, all the talk about changing minds is probably too much attention to the minor event, Recent US elections are all about which side turns out. I think maybe the better way to frame the 'uncommitted' issue is less whether that voter changes their mind to 'come home' to Biden as much as how does that vote alter their psychological mindset for voting in the general? Are you more likely to feel you need to go vote for Biden after not supporting him when you could have, or do you give yourself a pass because voting in the general happens to be inconvenient that day and you already did your bit for Biden once already? I don't know the answers but those may be the more important kinds of questions.

One reason is because GOP campaign money is corporate and thus more hard headed about not risking it on underdogs. For instance after Haley's weak showing at home, Koch is dropping their support.

This runs back to the polling issue as well. I didn't see word one in the NYT or WaPo about the polling miss in SC. Now it's true that Haley not being able to win her own state is the bigger immediate story, and Trump's margin of victory on one level made the polling irrelevant. Yet it's Trump's continuing strength in national polling that is the bigger overall story of the election and if that is illusory, that is potentially much bigger story overall than Haley and SC. But it lies exactly in the black hole of weakness in American journalism. The polling story is complex, confusing, highly technical and even involves numbers.

They never think about things like the fact that they'd be protecting their 2A right to use bows and arrows without the arms factories of the east coast, the steel production of the midwest, and the road and rails provided by DC taxing authority. "Yeah but other than *that*, what have the Romans done for us?"

It has a lot of staying power in the US because of the Cowboy myth of individual sufficiency that began to grow starting in the early 20th century. But of course we know the truth is the American West wouldn't have been habitable and would still be economically unsustainable to this day if it weren't attached to a great cooperative enterprise named "USA"

Holy April line-up Batman! An all major league starting 9 today!

LOL - I had certain 'natural advantages' that shaped my political understandings early. On one side, I'm 5"8' on a good day, have an older sister, am the youngest of my cousins, and ran mostly with older kids growing up, so I learned early that the weak have to organize and cooperate to live with the strong. OTOH, I'm basically a lazy person and it was always clear to me that any collective full of my clones would fail quickly.

This approach was pretty easy to see watching him patch holes in via FA before the draft last yr.

IDK, so far this season they have split with Boston and FLA and are actually one up on the Leafs, so they have been rising to the occasion against the teams ahead of them pretty well. But for now the Wings are leaning so heavily on their goaltending that not much else matters - they probably go exactly as far as Lyon can take them.

The older roster hurts more in the post season. Their last two 1st place finishes didn't translate for them in the playoffs.

When I was elementary school we would play softball in gym class and we still had school supplied mitts around that were 1930's style, basically flat padded affairs. That's where the two handed mantra evolved and it was perfectly correct. But all your off hand does if you are wearing any modern 13" OF glove is potentially get in the way.

The another factor that drives where things end up between these extremes is the nature of discontent with the candidate. My read would be that many discontented with Biden, both over Gaza, or the general complaint he is not progressive enough etc. have policy gripes. But the saliency of policy issues can shift a lot in 8 months, and in the end will still come down to "is the alternative still much worse?" which it will be for in most policy comparisons between Biden and Trump. Even on the Gaza war, the Dems only need to remind Palestinian supporters that Trump and Bibi are BFFs. OTOH, discontent with Hillary was largely personal, a lot of people decided she was a person they just didn't like or trust - that's 'stickier' politically because it doesn't change when facts on the ground change, e.g. a truce in a war zone. Whereas in '16 Trump's had the benefit of appearing to be the character he was scripted to be on 'Apprentice'. I think this difference gives Biden a better chance to win back those voting to 'send him a message'. But of course he still has to execute between now and Nov.

Yup. It's a movement that has always been co-opted by monied industrial or financial interests like the Koch's who basically use it as another propaganda arm for building 'reasonable' laissez-faire/deregulated economic policy arguments for unreasonable corporate behavior.

No arg about that, but in the context of whether Harris is potential successor material for the Dems the nature of her VP tenure matters. A poor VP tenure put an end to Dan Quayle's political career, a strong one rehabilitated Biden's.

I hate to be a wet blanket, this has been a fun streak, but I think there is some fool's gold here. There is no way the goaltending keeps up with the number of defensive breakdowns they are giving up. I fear there is a lot of regression waiting to rear it's ugly head if Yzerman doesn't do something before the deadline.

I looked up Rectenwald and he sounds like a real prize. 🌰🌰🌰🌰 What would be even better than an Libertarian to muddy the water for Trump and the current GOP would be a good old fashion segregationist. That would split the MAGA vote better than probably anything else. Where is a Geroge Wallace or David Duke when you actually could use one?

ce n'est pas merde

Suh was right up there with Juan Gonazales in terms of players you knew 10 seconds after they got here that they weren't staying. I don't know what people were smoking back in '15 with all the talk that he would resign with the Lions.

Another game where the Wings needed their goalie to step up and he did. Riemer made a lot of fine saves (again). He doesn't control rebounds very well though. Walman seemed kind of out of it tonight. Rare to hear his name so little in the PBP.

By now Harris has had a long time to make some kind of positive impression in her own party and can't seem to. Not a good sign. Ironic that Biden was all over the Obama admin and Harris is almost completely AWOL. So either a) Biden doesn't trust her because 1) she not competent 2) he's afraid she will upstage him b) She won't play good soldier. I have no idea which of these things, some of which would be Biden's fault and some of which would be Harris', may be true, but the Harris vice presidency has not been a big hit.

I like the single long term appointment idea. Two big benefits - you get the obvious ones that an appointment in year X isn't still affecting the country 30yrs later, but I think just as important, both parties have been in a race to nominate younger and younger judges on exactly the theory that you can influence the court longer, so the byproduct is that you get judges too young to have decent track records and probably generally lower competence. If the justice has to go in 15 yrs, 60 is as good as 45 for the appointment age and I think that would be an improvement.

But that isn't why. The why is simply the political reality that he is politically unpopular and may struggle to be re-elected even against the worst challenger in US history. I can't guess all the reasons the public has not embraced him. Age is certainly one but probably not the only. Lee has that part dead on. We can sit here as Biden supporters and claim it is unfair and irrational because his leadership and accomplishments are solid, but that and $5 gets us a Vente to share. The why doesn't matter, it appears he is not going to be a strong candidate for re-election. An open primary would have floated a Newsome or Whitmer or Landrieu or Josh Shapiro, or Buttigieg whose vote getting ability would have been proven by the process. All that said, it's early and maybe Biden will summon the physical energy and verbal discipline to campaign successfully, dispel the public's reservations and win big. Maybe.