was listening to a pod cast with a dem pollster the other day (sorry I can't find the link!) and she broke things down in fine detail. The core support for Trump is two places - we know about the racists and misogynists, they aren't ever voting for Harris. But one group the Campaign has identified that is still recoverable to the dems that they have to target hard is Hispanic men. The pollsters work says all they care about is the economy, and they are sold on the idea that Trump, as a supposed successful businessman *must* be better on economic issues. If the Dems can break through to that group with a dose of economic reality, they would easily be over the top and the election would be over - but it's going to be hard because the Dems are not strong in the information universe that cohort lives in and their job is to find a way to be there.
The other overarching issue for the campaign is presenting Harris as stronger than Trump. According to her data (and no surprise) a woman running against a man loses the presumption on being a strong enough personality for the job. Curiously though, Harris benefits because there is a general perception of black women being stronger than white women (I thought that was interesting but it does ring true - all the way back to Margaret Mitchell's Mammy and Hattie McDaniel's great performance in that role)