gehringer_2

"Stripe out" looks pretty ragged so far.

Ah... ok - I suppose if BR is using a 100 game running avg then i don't see much point in looking at their result before 100 games when all the data is from the current season. Game 100 was the 3rd week of July this season so i would think it would be fair to compare on Aug 1 and then maybe Sept 1. Seems to be less point to the exercise later than that. And of course neither system predicted anything for the Tigers this year on Sept 1 - which still has a good chance of being correct.🤷‍♀️

and you know it must be true because he wrote in ALL CAPS!

i suppose they could remain 50/50 right to the last game couldn't they? Or maybe we aren't talking about the same thing? I don't know what is under the covers in FG's system in terms of how often it updates projections but I assume it must at least look at who the remaining games are against so the model has be updating for that if nothing else. The BR model, being a running average run differential method, updates with every game played. But when I said "more accurate over time" i didn't mean to refer to the convergence toward an end-point but which system tended to give better predictions over multiple seasons. say at some arbitrary date of interest within a season like the ASB or Sept 1 - or even opening day, though that is probably pretty worthless in any system!

Mck was already in the game at 2B, the added player probably would have been Jung to give you: Keith->bench, Carp->DH, Vierling->RF, Jung->3b. You'd be subbing one LH bat for another.

Taking a lesson for Arky State!

amazon's status reminds me of the Bell System before the breakup. The complaints about them are coming more from people who want a piece of their business than from the customers they are serving and when they are gone (if it happens) people will complain that life was simpler before they were broken up. That's not to say their size may not be unhealthy for the economy for a lot of other reasons, but IMO it's not because the value proposition that Amazon provides it's customers is a bad one.

18?

i agree there is certainly a connotative understanding in that direction. Then again there are cases that bleed out over the edges of definitions that attempt precision. Take Hamas or Hezbollah for a near at hand example. They practice non-state terror across their borders and tyrannical murderous management against their own population to maintain quasi state status at 'home'.

If anything it affected urban areas more than rural so any negative effect should have hit the Dems harder.

2020 was the highest turnout in US history and it elected Biden by 7M. Before that 2008 was the previous large spike in turnout and the Dems won that. I like the odds on more turnout favoring the D side.

Boston bus officially has lost its wheels. 2 in, bases loaded, still no out.

Royals get 1 in the bottom of the 9th but Doval K's Pham and SF hangs on 2-1

Twins fail to move the running in the 11th. Door is open, BoSox just have to walk through. EDIT: FAIL

From reading the their description it has the advantage that it's simple and totally agnostic, it only looks at what a team has actually done as a team based on run differentials and SOS and in direct answer to my question about how far back in time you go to get the best estimate - they regressed on that question to come up with 100 games as the best fit to their dataset. I think the most obvious weakness on a casual view is that since it's purely team based, within the 100 game moving window it assumes a team is a constant. So it has no awareness of roster changes, particularly deadline dealing, which can be pretty huge (think about the impact JV had when he went to Houston!). I guess you can look at it as the concept that is trying to get as much as it can from the least required data.

Yeah - he's down off his Det performance, looks like he is walking more and K'ing less. Still, less than a hit and inning and more than a K per inning and the Dodgers have won 6 of his 9 starts so it's not like he's been some kind of liability either!

I suppose the PaleHose are the caution. They had a real nice trend going from 2018 to 2021, were supposedly going to be the team of a decade, and promptly sank like a rock. Not that I'm complaining, mind you....

LOL - If the Tigers come within a game or two here but miss, and then end up falling back for a couple of years and don't get this close, Harris will never live it down. I hope that isn't likely, but you never know.....

I'll be waiting to see how loud the howling is the first time a penalty is called on a face-off infraction.

Posters have identified that there are potential weaknesses in both FG player based and BR team based approaches. I guess you would have to look at their historical success to judge if either has proven to be more accurate over time. I think the player based projection approach potentially brings more input data the analysis so on that logical grounds you could argue it could be superior - and even more so for a veteran team, but arguments like that may or may not hold in the real world.

One of them had to. Also have to give Santander a lot of credit for not letting CV put him off his game.

The trade would be Jungs bat for Keith's. Is that worth 2 runs? Obviously not, but then again, most of the time the play would have been made.

well, 9-0 probably wasn't in the cards.

pIxie dust supply down tonight.

Reports are that is was the guy who plotted the Marine Barracks bombing in '83 - now Hezbollah's military commander.