gehringer_2

Fed meets tomorrow. So I basically go with the monetarists - if the Fed causes an increase in the supply of money in excess of the rate of purchasing in the economy, all things being equal, the value of money relative to goods falls - you have inflation. If they squeeze the money supply too hard, you would get the opposite (if that ever happened). So along comes a blockade of oil supplies. Everyone says the fed may be faced with tightening because the increased price of oil will cause prices to rise and they must fight inflation. But from the standpoint of monetary policy, shouldn't there be a difference between an increase in prices when intrinsic product values are constant, vs an increase in prices because it actually has become more expensive in real terms to produce them? It seem like if the Fed becomes restrictive in the face of oil driven price increases, they are doing so to preserve a fictional price level in the face of things costing more to produce in real terms- which has to increase any forces driving toward recession. Maybe we'll get lucky and they at least get somewhat close to right. They way overshot what was needed for the Pandemic, which I can cut a little slack for since nobody knew how bad the future might be at the time. They'll probably err on the loose side again which may be closer to correct this time. (Unfortunately the overshoot after 2020 probably determined an election).

I think there could be difference in '26 vs '28 on this. The Dem have to try very hard and I would agree have a decent chance to tie GOP Senators to Trump and that might be enough to swing the Senate, once. But even now there are still states where the public majority still hasn't turned on Trump much less their Senator. But I'm afraid it could be short lived because in '28 the downside risk arises that you have Senators, some even elected before Trump was on the scene. Elected because the locals agreed with their policies. Then these guys all fell in line for Trump. So if they go out and campaign like this: "Well, yes turns out Trump was an aberration but we were bound by party loyalty to support him. Now he is gone and we've got a new guy (assuming they don't run Ivanka! 😱) and we are really the same guys you know and always loved, and BTW don't you still hate them silly cross dressing, brown people loving libruls?! They elected a SOCIALIST in NYC!" Give someone whose whole political social psychic identity is wrapped up in being a 'Murican 'hate them libruls' Conservative!' I'm not confident of those outcomes.

The problem is going to be persuading voters who finally do turn on Trump that they also need to turn on their Senators that enabled him or we can't get out of his mess. But the Dems are going to need candidates that the left wing doesn't like much to be able to do that in any red states.

well, that's one down, 76,999,999 voters to go.

So Iran is allowing negotiated passage of the Strait to non-aligned states like India and Pakistan. They are buying good will around the globe. Trumps is busy alienating the world.

Hard to see how anyone who slips up and tells the truth still has a gig in this admin.

well if he doesn't it won't be for lack of performance. Among hitters with >30AB he leads the team in walks and OBP by a wide margin and has done fine in the field. Of course performance wise Jace Jung has hit almost as well but probably still has no chance of making the team.

I suppose by definition, if it's a "platoon" it has to be left/right. Otherwise it's just being a bench player without a regular gig.

Yup. Nolan was more a the biological pitching outlier than pitching performance outlier. Agree the most remarkable arm of all time (along with Paige?) but not really close to the best pitcher. I remember in Nolan's years with Angels when we faced him it always about whether he could throw the curve for a strike consistently on any given day, because if he couldn't, which was often, you could sit dead red and eventually catch up or he'd walk himself into trouble. Still, whose starts did you anticipate more since if he was on it was a good chance of being a no-hitter?

Velo data isn't available before Clemens last season, when he was 44 and fangraphs has his vFA at 90mph. I don't remember that much about what he was doing late in his career with his half season appearances etc -- but for a lot it his out pitch was his split. Johnson with 100 mph 4 seamer - probably a good comp in that sense. With Johnson he was so long with a release point that made his FB really play up even more. JV has made his living on his FB spin/life. I guess another guy that pitched into his 40's with tons of FB spin was Bartolo Colon. Obviously he wasn't as good overall and didn't have the matching velo (low 90s at best) but guys still always had trouble catching up to the life on his FB even near the end of his career.

depends on the player. e.g - I think it's been a mistake with Keith who is not a confident or comfortable glove guy to begin with, but McGonigle looks a lot more like a baseball rat like Javy or McK. Might not bother him at all. You just hope Hinch can tell which is true.

Downside there is that guys with inconsistent command are a bigger risk in the BP since the 3 batter rule. He's 25 this season, so still at an age when command might improve and he's still under 800 IP for his total career. His demeanor seems solid though. Another guy that's 50/50 to still have unrealized upside.

Dan said JV had 7 wiffs on his 4 seamer. Amazing the guy can throw a swing and miss FB at 43. Has anyone else done that since Nolan Ryan?

7 of JV's last 8 pitchers were 4 seamers, all the pitches to Ramos were. So he was just airing it out at that point and Ramos could just look dead red. The good part was that JV's velo was still good at 75 pitches (~95), and that's big for him. only 4 baserunners for each team so far.

Skubal has a very controlled follow through, he never really loses sight of his pitches. JV is pretty similar - he falls off maybe a little more but not much.

But he could make the team and play 50/50 SS and 3b. Javy plays 50/50 SS/CF and maybe some 3b. Parker just plays 50% or doesn't make the team. Assuming they do keep McGonigle, there are too many combinations to contemplate until they also decide which of Meadows/Perez/Jung/Jones may also make Opening Day.

The problem with the interchangeable payload concept of the LCS is that is was put out there at the same time the US was reducing it's overseas basing platforms. It's not very practical in the heat of combat to have to steam all the way back to SanDiego or Norfolk for a reconfiguration. The other thing is that Navy ships are going through constant metamorphosis at each refit, you have all those off board packages sitting around and you are tying yourself down to their compatibility when you need new function elsewhere. It's one of those concepts that sound good on paper but turns out to be at odds with the way the Navy operates in practice. They also F'd up the powertrain design in one of them, but that's another whole story.

well, we know one team has. 😟

Colt Keith is probably feeling a bit like a ping-pong ball. No matter what they tell him in Dec about where he is going to play, it becomes inoperative by the end of ST. If as is very possible, McGonigle and Meadows both go north, he's going to end up sharing 1st with Tork, 3rd with McGonigle and McKinstry, and maybe some second with Torres. While I'm sure he's willing, I'm less sure he has the defensive chops to be able to play well moving around to multiple positions. Contract or no, he seems to be the guy most squeezed if McGonigle and Meadows both make the team. He hasn't shown the power to play a lot of 1st, McGonigle may emerge as the better hitter from the left side at 3rd, and Torres has been an everyday player. OTOH, at least one injury across those positions is almost inevitable esp with Torres' history and Javy's age.

American consumer 'the last of our concerns' should play well also.

I don't know which is worse, a President that spends his time just making **** up, or that there is a public so gullible it still believes anything he says.

I don't know if you get there via the players, maybe via the team. Something like team bonus money distributed based on winning percentage. You'd probably need to institute a league wide payroll tax to pay for a system with enough $ to make it work, so it probably couldn't happen, but it would be an approach that creates the right incentives - esp since now you'd have team mates pressing each other to play to win. The weakness remaining is that if you are facing a really determined tanking team, you can still win with guys sitting, so I guess you'd have to go after both issues.

When I think of the American voter today, there is scene which always pops into my head - from the original Keaton Batman film, where Jack is emerging from his facial reconstruction as the Joker and the underground Doc tries to apologize for the bad result by pointing to his bloody, medievally crude surgical instruments and says, "You see what I have to work with here?"

NPR inteviewed a Mississippi farmer about his prospects for this season with higher fertilizer prices. He's having to queue up for a gov bailout. He can't afford the fertilizer for Corn, he's hoping he can make some money on sweet potatoes but the market is a gamble. He can maybe plant cotton (left unsaid was that that will require more labor) - so after this long litany of woes Trump has brought him came the question - well, then do you support this war? "Well I guess so..." GMAFB. Some people can fall out of the boat and still miss water.

not dead yet!