absolutely this is exactly the downside risk, and I think there is precedent in the way Dem voters failed to energize around Clinton or Harris or the 2022 Senate races.. Thankfully the ongoing poll results do seem to be moving the other way - for instance Dem enthusiasm appears to be running ahead of GOP enthusiasm in OHIO. The problem there is that primary and by-election results are not all that much to hang your hat on, even if they do point in a positive direction. It's too easy to see Trump somehow extricating himself from Iran, gas prices falling, some stupid Dem misstep, and all of a sudden all is forgiven.