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Everything posted by gehringer_2
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yeah - that's a great myth. Things get better in small increments when people keep plugging away to make things better, they get worse in big chunks when people start breaking stuff. I think we tend to think this way because the feed our selves such deep fantasies about America's history: "We are a revolutionary nation". No, we are not really. France's reign of terror was revolutionary, Leninism was revolutionary, Cuba was revolutionary, the Chinese cultural revolution was revolutionary. What happened beginning in 1776 in the American colonies was actually a fight more to keep things the way they were - they way they had gradually evolved in the colonies while the Brits weren't paying that much attention, than to change things. It was the Brits who wanted to force the colonies to change - to pay more to support the Crown and accede to more direct rule from England than where things had evolved. It was more a war of conservation than revolution. Which is why the outcome didn't look like France or Russia.
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The closest we get to Soto is if one of his flights between coasts passes overhead.
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I hear ya, but I still wonder if loss of Walman's quickness is part what the PK is suffering from. Edvinssson may be a better player overall at this point, but matching him with Seider on the PK may not be the best way to get to the most loose pucks first, which for all of Lalonds technique talk about the problem, is the root of it. And TBF, the problem on the PK is at least as much two forwards out there. And they probably have no-one more effective than Edvinsson to play on the PK now - they have to hope that his anticipation gets better as the season goes on so he can play faster than he does now.
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Michigan Football 2024 aka The Year Michigan has to Defend a Natty
gehringer_2 replied to romad1's topic in College Sports
It the kind of preening the league should never have allowed to get started though. Players are exhausted and emotional at the end of a game and it's stupid to allow 'graceless winner' behavior that just increases the likelihood of 'poor loser' behavior. -
Interesting question. I can't anything about the luxury tax that says anything more than that it's based on player salaries. The Luxury tax in baseball is pretty useless because it kicks in at too high a level to have any real benefit to small market teams. It's designed more to be a disincentive to rich teams than create any serious levelizing of revenue. I would think the LT need to capture at least 20-30% of the richest teams' revenues to become a serious equalizing force. So far I don't think the tax has ever cost the Dodgers more than ~10% of their revenue in one year. The 'TrueBlue' site estimates the Dodgers have paid a total of $85M in luxury tax over the last 3 yrs - their revenue is over $500M/yr. Ohtani's contract could drive that higher though.
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I can understand Walman not being what they wanted, but not letting players go before you've identified how to improve yourself at the position vacated.
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Michigan Football 2024 aka The Year Michigan has to Defend a Natty
gehringer_2 replied to romad1's topic in College Sports
I was not at the game today, but I WAS as the '69 game - first college football game I had ever attended no less. It was one payoff for living with an older sister for 16 yrs -
Now why would I ruin a perfectly good euphoria doing that? 🤔
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OK - raise the mound back up an inch or two and the pitch angles stay exactly the same. Problem solved! 😉
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Michigan Football 2024 aka The Year Michigan has to Defend a Natty
gehringer_2 replied to romad1's topic in College Sports
yeah - He tries, but Warren is just not a major college level guy. Even some of his accurate throws would have been better if they had come a tick or two sooner. He hasn't been able to throw deep, also has a too low throwing motion that makes him prone to being blocked. And none of this wasn't know last season...... -
Michigan Football 2024 aka The Year Michigan has to Defend a Natty
gehringer_2 replied to romad1's topic in College Sports
On one side, in '69 it was Bo beating Woody in their first meeting and Woody was coming off the '68 National Championship. On the other side, the '69 M team was coming in with only one conference loss. In pure football terms I think think this was the bigger upset, M was on the road and record differential was larger. But in terms of signalling something significant for the future, '69 was the bigger impact. -
Michigan Football 2024 aka The Year Michigan has to Defend a Natty
gehringer_2 replied to romad1's topic in College Sports
If anyone ever wondered how much football has become a QB and 21 dwarfs game, the M team is exhibit 1. Any kind of play under center and this is good team. Without it, no chance -
No, I just meant that when people lose a dog it’s usually swear off for life or have another immediately, not so many in between.
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Not a dog owner?
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has anyone ever succeeded in trading a player with a big deferred payout?
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I suppose for any org, large or small you can still evaluate the NPV of their total future liabilities vs their current net worth and projected cash flow and determine if they have a reasonable probability of continued solvency or in the same way whether any new contract is pushing them over that edge. While we know the league will prevent teams from committing themselves to operating at a loss, how aggressive/conservative they are at evaluating future revenue against future liabilities in that assessment I have no idea.
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what is the theory behind the a foot longer throw affecting injury rate? If a pitcher is already throwing at max effort, where the ball is caught would seem immaterial to his his release physics.
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All your Denarii are belong to us.
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triple overtime.
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Week Thirteen: Chicago Bears (4-7) @ Detroit Lions (10-1)
gehringer_2 replied to MichiganCardinal's topic in Detroit Lions
I guess that was the kind of self-destruct good teams take from bad teams. I was struct that they apparently had zero confidence they could get a FG off after an ordinary play that stopped the clock, which is something you would think any NFL team should be able to do no sweat. 🤷♀️ -
Week Thirteen: Chicago Bears (4-7) @ Detroit Lions (10-1)
gehringer_2 replied to MichiganCardinal's topic in Detroit Lions
this and the PI on totally William's uncatchable desperation heave that was 20yds from the nearest receiver late in the 4th were making it look like a fix was in. -
We hashed this around over Ohtani's contract. If I remember it right, the league takes time NPV (discounted) of all the deferred dollars and divides the total equally over the playing years of the contract - adding to the direct salary for each year for the yearly total luxury tax amount. What I don't know is how they decide on the discount rate - probably some formula based on the prime rate or t-bill rate the year the contract is signed - IIRC the discount rate on Ohtani's money was something in the 3-4% range but I didn't save the calculation - I just remember it was something that seemed reasonable.
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One thing is pretty clear, none of those pitchers probably ever broke 90 mph. We talk a lot about spin today but spin works in direct proportion to the loss of time to look, and that's 100% because of increasing velo. The talk about it seems to have died down but moving the mound back a foot or two needs to be considered more seriously.
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2024 - 2025 Detroit Tigers Offseason
gehringer_2 replied to AlaskanTigersFan's topic in Detroit Tigers
Well, maybe they saved 30% on their car insurance.... -
they are just so uncoordinated as a team. So many outlet passes to nowhere, dump-arounds with no-one crashing the opposite boards, they give up so much space to the opposition players in their own zone - too slow/lack of anticipation of where the play is going to be/inability to track their assignments. The fact they have a few guys with PP skill is the only thing that saves them at all. The pain this year better pay off big in the next couple.
