gehringer_2

If you assume from the drop in D votes for Harris that at least some % of Biden voters moved to Trump and Trump still got fewer votes than in 20, that means the fall off in maga land evidenced in the half empty rallies and the number of GOPer that came out for Harris was real. So the election was there for the taking but the Dems lost 20M Biden voters. Hard to fathom. The fear on the blue side was always that the Dems could duplicate 2020 but somehow Trump could win by energizing more white guys to come out, but that does not appear to be what happened at all. Most straight up conclusion is that Obama's democratic coalition had a lot more people who won't vote for a woman than won't vote for a POC. More misogynists than racists. I guess there is a certain logic to that on the blue side but it's still disappointing

if he starts to lose it are we more likely to get President Musk, President Vance, or President Jr, or even Ivanka/Kushner? They say they are out, but blood has always been thicker than water among Trumps.

this. The US has a much better chance of surviving Trump than Ukraine does.

Seems to be the case for parts of the Hispanic community

Gavin Newsome, if there is a '28

Looking pretty bleak. I guess you can't underestimate the US electorate.

Georgia has closed a little but running out of votes.

So much for Iowa

long spell with not much coming in.

if the votes in are from the wrong place that can happen....

Doesn't Atl always come in last? I thought I remember Warnock coming from behind for his win in 22

Could have used a Wings game to stay distracted till about 10p. I blame Denise.

last cycle I liked the web tracker at the NYT. Had every race down to the state legislatures - assuming they run it the same way again....

they can try, but the 'in line' rule has been upheld by the courts many times.

This stuff has already been traced back to Putin. I hope Biden has the energy to generate a worthwhile response to this. Giving the Ukrainians a free hand with their arsenal would be a good start.

'Melania' apparently won't take her big sunglasses off while inside as she appears with Trump today. You can't make it up....

I think/hope that is something everyone underestimates. Americans get bored with everything pretty quickly.

I suppose it wasn't that big a deal, but it can't have helped Cleveland's bargaining position that Smith was already all go to make the move. 🏃‍♂️💭

well played.

I've lost track. Are PA and MI enough?

and let's be real, most of that was probably laundered from russian oil proceeds.

Still, helping a GOP or Libertarian get on the board who only wants to be there to create disruption is pretty much cutting off your nose to spite your face if you support the University. Most of the non-Dems who have run for Regents seats in recent years have been wack jobs.

What leads you to believe Denise has any input to what Chris does with the Wings or Tigers? Not being facetious - serious question.

well, that is the thing. If they could draw a random sample, it wouldn't matter if the population has changed because all that would show up in any truly random sample. But they can't get a random sample in the US anymore (they could come pretty close in the post WWII period using landlines and fixed geography area codes), but that's completely gone now.....) so they have to use a model, and the model has to be constructed from the past, so if the population changes, the model can't possibly be adjusted for it with any certainty until after the next election - at least other than by pure guess work. What the pollsters are doing that is dishonest, is to continue to claim their polls have the same validity/accuracy level when they no longer do. Some of them will make the right guesses on their model and get the result, and then claim they are good pollsters, but in most cases that will be a fallacy. They simply made luckier assumptions about how to massage their model - i.e they have a certain expertise, but not necessarily as survey takers.

the good news is 25% of Haley's GOP primary support went to Harris. The bad news is Harris underperformed Biden by 40%.