gehringer_2

Petry tried to give up a goal at about 17:30, but failed even at that.

Yup. But a little like Nixon in '68, the Clintons had a lot of chits they could call in. The fact is that both parties have too narrow a nominating base and that can lead to candidates that generate a lot more energy in the party than in the general public. If someone knows the answer to that, they can go make a lot of money consulting on the beltway.

The Dems lost with Hillary and decided it was a fluke rather than a property of their electorate, so Biden doubled down with Harris. If you believe that leadership means getting out in front of your public and bringing it along, that was not necessarily a mistake ethically even if it may have turned out to be tactically. But the point has been made that if that was the plan then Biden had to give Harris at least as much or more profile in his admin that Obama gave Biden, and it was never even close. One can also argue that if it was foreseen that a win was so critical in '24 and the Dems were absolutely set on a woman, then pick a white woman and least save your self that half of the battle. In any case, there are a lot of way to slice and dice this history on the continuum of what should have been done in 2020 that cast the die for '24. But the other factor is that I think a lot of people thought Trump would either have gone away to jail or at least gone away instead of holding his grip on GOP. Everybody needs to suck it up, go find someplace to use your efforts help build US civil society for the next few years and make a contribution to holding it together.

They wouldn't go blue but probably a lot of them did stay home or not vote the top of the ticket, which should have been enough. If Trump was down 3 million and even a third of Harris/Biden deficit was defections to Trump that means Trump lost closer to 10M of *his* 2020 voters. That may well be a lot of the Haley voters.

So aside from never nominating another woman, the Dems apparently need to find a way to effect a culture shift in the coalition.

I don't know if black and Hispanic men made up 20M of the 2020 vote, but the pre-election polling was that there is where at least a chunk of the weakness was. Makes you think the 1st woman president is going to have to be a Republican.

If you assume from the drop in D votes for Harris that at least some % of Biden voters moved to Trump and Trump still got fewer votes than in 20, that means the fall off in maga land evidenced in the half empty rallies and the number of GOPer that came out for Harris was real. So the election was there for the taking but the Dems lost 20M Biden voters. Hard to fathom. The fear on the blue side was always that the Dems could duplicate 2020 but somehow Trump could win by energizing more white guys to come out, but that does not appear to be what happened at all. Most straight up conclusion is that Obama's democratic coalition had a lot more people who won't vote for a woman than won't vote for a POC. More misogynists than racists. I guess there is a certain logic to that on the blue side but it's still disappointing

if he starts to lose it are we more likely to get President Musk, President Vance, or President Jr, or even Ivanka/Kushner? They say they are out, but blood has always been thicker than water among Trumps.

this. The US has a much better chance of surviving Trump than Ukraine does.

Seems to be the case for parts of the Hispanic community

Gavin Newsome, if there is a '28

Looking pretty bleak. I guess you can't underestimate the US electorate.

Georgia has closed a little but running out of votes.

So much for Iowa

long spell with not much coming in.

if the votes in are from the wrong place that can happen....

Doesn't Atl always come in last? I thought I remember Warnock coming from behind for his win in 22

Could have used a Wings game to stay distracted till about 10p. I blame Denise.

last cycle I liked the web tracker at the NYT. Had every race down to the state legislatures - assuming they run it the same way again....

they can try, but the 'in line' rule has been upheld by the courts many times.

This stuff has already been traced back to Putin. I hope Biden has the energy to generate a worthwhile response to this. Giving the Ukrainians a free hand with their arsenal would be a good start.

'Melania' apparently won't take her big sunglasses off while inside as she appears with Trump today. You can't make it up....

I think/hope that is something everyone underestimates. Americans get bored with everything pretty quickly.

I suppose it wasn't that big a deal, but it can't have helped Cleveland's bargaining position that Smith was already all go to make the move. 🏃‍♂️💭

well played.