gehringer_2

Yup. He might be safe for the interim until whatever new rules/conferences/reimbursement systems come into place and they can shop for the guy to fit the new job description.

might be a shade dark for the classic 'Honolulu Blue" but the blue is darker on the all blues.....

So French says he talked Ike's granddaughter, who is curator of the Eisenhower archives. The story runs to the effect that leading into the '52 election, Ike was deeply concerned about the fact that isolationism was already growing again in the US with the shadow of WWII barely in the rear view mirror. Both parties were offering him the nomination. So he went to talk to Taft, who was the odds on favorite to be the GOP nominee if Ike passed on the offer, and he asked Taft what he thought About NATO. Taft said he opposed it. That answer persuaded Ike he had to run as a Republican because as a GOP president, he could force the GOP into an outward facing foreign policy consensus with the Dems, control McCarthy (whom he hated) from the inside, and leave the isolationists without leverage in either party. It's not the main point of French's essay but I found it the most interesting part, as we already know the rest of French's complaints about his ex-party all too well. https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/opinion/trump-mcconnell-courage-leadership.html

IMO, this is something they can't put off and they can't let Boras jerk them around on. You try to make a deal now, this off-season, don't even think about waiting for next year. If Boras won't talk now or talks to kill time but won't deal, you move him while he is controlled for two seasons and you can still get good value back for him.. The worst thing you do is let magic thinking distort your understanding that as long as Boras is his agent, if he won't deal now the odds are overwhelming he's going to FA. It would be a terrible loss, but the CBA has already baked the cake, all you can do in minimize the long term damage.

OK - sign a DE, get Branch and Jaymo back and take it on the road again.

one of the worst onside kick attempts you will see.

Don't worry, Quarter break coming.

Romad - a little off topic but did you see French's NYT column today? Mostly about GOP failures yada-yada, but an interesting (at least to me!) tidbit about why Eisenhower ran as a Republican. One I'd not seen before.

It's always fun to look back and speculate. If Ford wins that election does he have any better handle on the economy? Does he make a different appointment to the Fed than William Miller, one who starts the battle against inflation sooner? If he does he gets re-elected in 1980, no Ronald Reagan, and who knows where we all would be? And where does the right wing go if the Ford wing of the GOP keeps them shut out for another cycle or two? The stakes of an election may not seem high at all at the time, but you never know!

I was reminiscing the other day about elections like 1976, when I was not going to be particularly unhappy in the morning whichever guy won. Good times.....

40-60 is generally the most conservative part of a person's lifetime - mostly for economic reasons. They have gotten settled and feel the most at risk of losing ground: to taxes, or being forced to share the value of their productivity 'unjustly' with anyone else, or having the value of their property at risk by changes in housing patterns, etc. It's the age of maximum social/political rigidity and that is where the X'er are. Given Trump's proposals to break a lot of economic china, this could actually work against him with Gen X

In the end I'll be surprised if there is any sampling method that is going to be that much better, The reason being that in a US election survey, fundamental assumptions of statistics are already violated before you even start and it's just getting worse as time goes by.

I like Paul Krugman's metaphor about this - he says people should visualize the Federal Government as an insurance company with an army.

I can understand Cohn's problem. I've read a number of his columns this cycle and no doubt the nearer we get to Tuesday, the more he is despairing of polling having any validity in this cycle, but that's a hard thing to come to terms with when your value as an analyst depends on having something worth analyzing.

Edvinsson and Seider already look like they've been playing together for a whole season.

If it's real, it will be because your average mid-western farmer probably knows a lot more macroeconomics than your average MSM political reporter.

LOL - so if these are both good polls we aggregate them and get Trump +2. Which as you point out, is still a disastrous number for Trump.

Not to count chickens - but It would be a hoot if the error in polling turned out to be that the rural farm vote turns against Trump - probably the one thing no one expected or would believe even if they were seeing it.

I think the irony is that in most sports playing not to lose is a strategy that works best for teams good enough they probably don't need to do it. In hockey if you are good enough to play solid lock down defense to protect a lead your D game is probably good enough you could just play your normal game and it won't matter. If you are a crappy team and lay back, often as not you just find yourself overwhelmed by the pressure.

DJIA doesn't like downers. It will be interesting to see how long NVidia can maintain it's position. It's a volatile industry where the possibility of getting leap-froged is always at hand. Plus it's not hard to imagine the total market for AI processors hitting an abrupt plateau once the initial build out phase is over. We shall see. I took my profits on NVidia a while ago. Certainly missed some of the run by cashing out when I did but it's too rich for my blood at this point.

this. They know they will be the first target of the inevitable retaliation. We haven't talked much about it but that is a factor that could play big in MN, WI, but also Ohio as well.

I think it's possible that if Trump loses things may start to even out a little. The center left is already pushing back against the lefty left at places like Universities and if Trump takes them to a second defeat we will probably see the center right push back against the righty right. Maybe.

that would be an 11% ->D swing since 2020.

Mitch Albom school of journalism. 😉

I suppose because in his mind, if he was only hit by a bit of flying glass, then Comperatore's death might have become a bigger story than he would be.