gehringer_2

In a 6 across coach std body, Delta 1st class would normally be 4 across? 1st class in a wide body is variable. I wonder if It's possible that with air travel picking back up to record levels after the pandemic slowdown, airlines/air leasing companies are having to pull air frames that went into storage in 2019-20 back into service and some airlines are settling for less than what they would have in their new orders. Air travel today is running just about at Dante's 8th circle of Hell. I spent a few years flying ~3 x month when it was a relatively civil experience. You couldn't pay me enough to do it now.

He's ordered 200K more conscripts be called up. Dream scenario is the he depletes his army to the point where the provinces tell him to sod off and he finds he can't do much about it. Prolly not likely but we can always hope. Then again, it might only take one to start something....

maybe. Then again, as you get older you are sort of forced to get used to the idea you are on your way out, at least for some.

People assume this is going to be a problem, but in our experience it has not. The stores know they are in instant trouble if they pick bad stuff for the order ahead customers and that grocery store loyalty isn't very strong, so that have plenty of motivation to have the staff put good stuff in the bags.

as an example, Torkelson's OPS ahead of the count is 1100, behind its 505. The cost of taking a strike early in the count looking for something better is quite high for him - although ironically in his case his OPS swinging at 1st pitchers is poor also (500 again), which could indicate he's over-swinging at the pitches he does like early - which is what the eye test tends to.

Adrain Beltre had 5 but while he has 3166 hits - good for 17th all time (18th if Miggy catches him) and 72 o-War for his career - In 21 years he never lead the league in BA, OBP, SLG, OPS, or OPS+. Just very good every damn year.

Maybe when they told him that *he* assumed he was on the way out, only to find out it they meant something less. So "not playing" here actually means what? Protected member of the taxi squad for a week?

Over the years I become more persuaded that more batters fail because of what they don't swing at rather than what they do, especially after watching Cabrera for 10 yrs. And I think it's doubly true against good pitching. Your goal should be to never take a strike you can hit looking for a better one, you probably won't get it and now you are down in the count. It's the part of what Ted Williams said years ago that is now the most ignored part. His first admonition when you got your pitch was "Don't take it"

OK - I think that is another way of saying the same thing. A hitter who is not really in control of his swing is still going to 'run into a few' and may get some BaBIP luck, a pitcher whose control is gone is not going to accidentally throw enough strikes. But that doesn't change the underlying condition that both may not be in their top condition to be playing the game on a given day. Their is nothing about hitting or pitching that a priori makes athletes more immune to physical ups and down doing one than the other. It just that the outcomes get more disguised for hitters.

Torkelson shows some range moving laterally, but not the kind of quicks or hands you'd like at 3b and IIRC the reports about his arm when he tried third after the draft was that it wasn't MLB quality for 3B even if it might be above average for a 1b. Henning's reporting was tantalizingly incomplete with regard to the prognosis for Keith's shoulder. If there wasn't permanent damage and it's just a matter of more rehab it would seem there really shouldn't be any debate about who is going to be at 3b next season. My guess is that giving Malloy more time there is just a hope and a prayer and maybe even an effort to pump up his potential trade value. I've come around to where I'm OK with Carpenter in RF so as I see it, DH is wide open for Malloy and I'd stop worrying about where he is going to play in the field - he doesn't have to. Bigbie might be the bigger dilemma but if he spends some time in Toledo next season they have another 1/2 season to figure that out.

but there is no human factors reason to believe that should be true. I think what is at work is simply that you have more randomness superimposed in the 'signal' from a batter (like BaBIP luck) so it's harder to find. The assumption that all the things you happen to be able to measure is all there is is a risky one. 😱

Exactly - that's the calculation you'd have to do - how wide a range of initial velocities can a backboard shot have versus a direct shot. I think it's very possible the back board might give you more leeway, but I think the argument about the consistency of hand to eye for all the other shots they take doesn't make it worth it to take a different aim point for free throws - just always look for the back iron, or whatever point works for a player. Ironically, if you take a totally different shot, like Berry's underhander, then you maybe wouldn't care because it's a totally different muscle memory set, though Berry did not shoot his UH FTs off the backboard.

they pulled him and Lipcius from the same game together as though they were both going to be called up and then......crickets for Wenceel. 🤷‍♂️

You couldn't make it up.

And Boras might even do your work for you finding a team that wants him.

and yet if your Cy Young winning pitcher with a 1.00 WHIP and 2.0 ERA gives up 5 by the 2nd, you aren't going to leave him in because the odds say he shouldn't give up any more runs. Everyone recognizes that pitchers can be off or on, but by some magic hitters must always conform to their averages? Now granted, it's harder for anyone not in the hitter's skin to know what his state is as easily as in the case of a pitcher, but that the fact that it it's less knowable doesn't mean it isn't as true.

I think it depends on what you define as a 'streak'. I look at it primarily on a daily basis. There are days when a hitter isn't missing anything or a pitcher has pin point control and that often tends to hold through the individual game. Once the sun comes up again, I would agree. The day is the basic boundary for highs and lows. You can also apply a little observation. A guy that is 2/4 and has barreled up all four is not the same situation as the guy who is 4/4 on one hard hit and 3 seeing eye grounders. So if the research doesn't dive in to the story behind the gross results, I'm not sure if it's as determinative as I would want. You would have to separate BaBIP luck out. My basic beef is with managers who are paying attention to the game they see in front of them when it doesn't agree with their preconceived notions of probability. Plus from the other side, any hitter will tell you he is not the same guy everyday (except for maybe Cabrera at his peak).

what frosts me about it is that is a fundamental misuse of statistics and statistical theory. When a guy goes 7/8, he is not the guy your season stats say he is, he is a guy who is seeing the ball unusually well and you are perfectly justified in riding his hot hand. The idea that every player always represents the same sample population is a total fallacy. They are on average, but only on average. In any specific instance, a human being may be passing through any of various states of being/emotion/health/*performance*.

meh. The players are allowed to have independent opinions -- as long as that is what they were. If someone from the staff put them up to it then it would be quite a different matter, otherwise it tough cookies for the NCAA if the players don't like them.

Smartest guy in the stadium syndrome.

Well, if Rick Berry could lead the league in FT% shooting them underhand, why not? I think the physics of this could make some limited sense. Since the ball comes off the backboard with a fraction less than one of the energy it hits it with, you should get more leeway in the range of velocities that the ball hits the backboard with but still falls in the hoop, compared to having to get exactly the right x-direction velo to find the hoop on the direct shot. I think the real issue here though is that since there are so many other shots - baseline etc, where the backboard can't help or the angle is more complex to instantly solve, it's better for muscle memory, etc., just to always have one aim point - the hoop. Still, the 'everybody does it that way' arg always has to be suspect. It took the league 30 yrs to finally play the game the 3pt shot meant they should have been playing all along - all that held the game back was a wrong belief that guys could not shoot as well as they have proved they can.

I didn't have any problem with Avila's US drafts - I thought that was probably the strongest aspect of his tenure. It was in Latin America that the Tigers did poorly, which seemed odd since that had been part of Avia's beat coming up as a baseball exec. Maybe a case of familiarity breeding contempt. I wasn't thrilled with the Mize pick, but conventional wisdom on Mize was pretty universal and he may yet end up a good pitcher.

He did have a real excess weakness for switch hitters, to the point where he pretty much ignored the fact that too many of the SH he brought in couldn't actually switch hit, they just stood in the opposite batters box to take some of their outs.

Didn't Tucker do pretty much the same thing at MSU? Heck, there was big exodus from Michigan when Harbaugh took over. Happens with every coaching change - it's just a matter of degree depending on the local circumstance.

I'll give you one thing that does give me pause, and that is the approach to their major league hitters. Despite the excellent results lower in the system with Malloy, Perez, Keith, Lipcius, Bigbie, Meadows, the hitters at the MLB level, with the exception of Greene, all seem to hit below their potential. They may all be terrible hitters for sure, but I'd have like to see at least a couple guys on the MLB roster make more progress. Carpenter has, but Carpenter went out of the org for his hitting coaching. Torkelson has found his power but I think he has the tools to be a better OBP guy than he is and there has been little progress for him on that front. For me it comes down to the 'control the zone' mantra. I think it is fundamentally misguided as a primary objective because it is a symptom, not a cause. There are a few hitters that get too aggressive, but in the overwhelming number of cases, guys are not trying to swing OOZ. The cause is too little decision time - stressing to guys to 'look for pitches' misses the mark IMO. They are all doing that to the best of their ability. The emphasis needs to be on how to get into an approach that allows you more time to your decision point - which is exactly what the guy Carpenter has worked with stresses. Maybe that is going on in the background, but I find their public statements on the team's approach to hitting to be unlikely to yield much result.