gehringer_2

2020 was the highest turnout in US history and it elected Biden by 7M. Before that 2008 was the previous large spike in turnout and the Dems won that. I like the odds on more turnout favoring the D side.

Boston bus officially has lost its wheels. 2 in, bases loaded, still no out.

Royals get 1 in the bottom of the 9th but Doval K's Pham and SF hangs on 2-1

Twins fail to move the running in the 11th. Door is open, BoSox just have to walk through. EDIT: FAIL

From reading the their description it has the advantage that it's simple and totally agnostic, it only looks at what a team has actually done as a team based on run differentials and SOS and in direct answer to my question about how far back in time you go to get the best estimate - they regressed on that question to come up with 100 games as the best fit to their dataset. I think the most obvious weakness on a casual view is that since it's purely team based, within the 100 game moving window it assumes a team is a constant. So it has no awareness of roster changes, particularly deadline dealing, which can be pretty huge (think about the impact JV had when he went to Houston!). I guess you can look at it as the concept that is trying to get as much as it can from the least required data.

Yeah - he's down off his Det performance, looks like he is walking more and K'ing less. Still, less than a hit and inning and more than a K per inning and the Dodgers have won 6 of his 9 starts so it's not like he's been some kind of liability either!

I suppose the PaleHose are the caution. They had a real nice trend going from 2018 to 2021, were supposedly going to be the team of a decade, and promptly sank like a rock. Not that I'm complaining, mind you....

LOL - If the Tigers come within a game or two here but miss, and then end up falling back for a couple of years and don't get this close, Harris will never live it down. I hope that isn't likely, but you never know.....

I'll be waiting to see how loud the howling is the first time a penalty is called on a face-off infraction.

Posters have identified that there are potential weaknesses in both FG player based and BR team based approaches. I guess you would have to look at their historical success to judge if either has proven to be more accurate over time. I think the player based projection approach potentially brings more input data the analysis so on that logical grounds you could argue it could be superior - and even more so for a veteran team, but arguments like that may or may not hold in the real world.

One of them had to. Also have to give Santander a lot of credit for not letting CV put him off his game.

The trade would be Jungs bat for Keith's. Is that worth 2 runs? Obviously not, but then again, most of the time the play would have been made.

well, 9-0 probably wasn't in the cards.

pIxie dust supply down tonight.

Reports are that is was the guy who plotted the Marine Barracks bombing in '83 - now Hezbollah's military commander.

yeah, he didn't let them strike he did go to bat for them hard, browbeating the RR's into giving them most/all they would have gotten out of a strike.

Thank-you. I felt there had to be a catch because I couldn't remember what I described ever happening! And it make perfect sense that it wouldn't be allowed.

absolutely. You can't blame any prediction system for inaccuracy about something which is fundamentally unpredictable. Statistics are only meaningful if the thing you are measuring has some kind of consistency. A team full of so many rookies/2nd year guys/redesigned pitchers etc., plus a manager who has decided to play by a whole different set of roster rules, is full of unknown deviations.

LOL - that's pretty much what every Tiger fan is probably holding their breath about!

that might be interesting. Say you cut him and no-one picked him up. He's off the 40, you are still paying him. If you still haven't got insurance behind Sweeney, could you turn around and give him an invite to ST? Doesn't seem right but off the top of my head I can't see exactly why.

and indeed they do. 55/50

But Dearborn is going to throw MI to Trump...

he certainly will be if he pitches successfully again.

I think I get what BRef does with SRS, which appears to be a rolling average purely based on a team's last 100 game outcomes. If fangraphs is using a zips based system does that mean they are rebuilding each team's performance from their individual player projections? EDIT: one possible source of error in the rolling 100 game model is the step discontinuity in team composition at the deadline.

It's something that gives you a sanity check for what you are thinking in your fan brain. and this. In the end, everyone gets in or not after 162, but there is something special about watching the odds improve after your team is left for dead for good reason.