Well, that's an easy best guess (sort of like Hillary 🤣). Now of course Harris could just be BSing, and in fact probably is BSing, but if you take him at his word that how they play leading up the dealine makes a difference to his decision making, then he is stating he is willing to look beyond the best estimate probability because that number cannot possible become favorable for them between now and then. All I am saying is exactly what he has said, that it is not unreasonable to come to a conclusion based on the present, that the past may not necessarily condition the future as strictly as the numbers in the form of the most unbiased past based predictors say it will.
Or TL, DR version, sometimes things change.
Personally, I do continue to think that doing anything to chase success this season would still be a mistake.