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gehringer_2

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Everything posted by gehringer_2

  1. This goes back the choice between building a position roster around a few stars, versus 13-15 good and at least somewhat interchangeable players. The latter is going to be more resilient in the face of injury. But of course you can set out to do the latter, and still end up lucky(?) enough to end up with a few stars anyway. Its not like you aren't going to play them if you have them.
  2. Don't underestimate the powers of the executive branch. If the Dem's win clearly win the Presidency, and the court tries some end around, the Executive branch is going tell the Judicial Branch it's sanctions have just been voided. It will be a crisis, but one the court will lose. But it wouldn't be 5-4, Trump would lose 7-2. Alito and Thomas are that insane, I don't believe the other 3 are.
  3. Clark improving even faster than they are moving him up.
  4. IDK, I would think that after finishing the season with the team and playing well that the default assumption is he starts the season on the roster unless he really lays an egg in the preseason. Who he plays with may depend on deals not yet made. But more generally, maybe the best strategy is to be flexible. If you are playing a team with one big scoring line, put them out there together, but otherwise my preference would be to have one big physical Dman who can carry the puck out there for >50 out of 60 min.
  5. Not only that, but their senses of humor don’t seem to connect. It’s like instead of getting levity they get tension.
  6. LOL - OK - here goes. My understanding of what a typical central banker believes is that if inflation is falling below target, you have to decrease interest rates in order to increase borrowing across the economy which in turn increases the money supply (and/or velocity) and so reinflates the economy to the target inflation level. By the theory - you have to do this because if inflation is allowed to fall too close to zero, you open the economy to the possibility that normal economic variation tips the economy into deflation, and in conventional monetary policy, deflation is believed to not only be strongly contractive, but potentially self accelerating as well and thus very very difficult to get out of once you fall into it. Stagnation in Japan in some recent decades would be pointed to as the example. The inflation target of 2% inflation is the number the Fed has settled on as a compromise that is high enough to give the Fed some margin of error to prevent falling into deflation while being low enough not to set off inflationary expectations high enough to tip it unstable the other way. I've seen liberal economists argue 2% is unnecessarily low and that you could target 2.5-3% and get lower unemployment, more conservative economists disagree and they hold sway at the current Fed with the 2% target. If the PPI/CPI/PCE are at 2.2% and still falling, those are signs the economy has reached/is reaching the Fed's target. Ergo the rate cut is in the near future. Those would be my notes if I were cribbing them from a guy like maybe Bernanke giving the lecture (and in fact I think I have probably heard Bernanke give close to this layout in a speech.......) In the current case, the other piece is quantitative tightening. The Fed is working down its $7 Trillion (it was $9T!) balance sheet (taken on after the great crash) by selling ~$100B of their bond holdings per month. That is also deflationary so they have some room to maneuver just by changing their QT schedule even without lowering the discount rate...
  7. I’m definitely not a fan of Gibson with Benetti. Broadcast just has a bad vibe to me.
  8. There is a conventional answer to your question but I have a feeling that’s not why you asked the question. 🤔
  9. That emoji is labeled “confused” which for me sums up an option on a derivative of an option (or whatever it actually is!)
  10. I'm going to predict Torkelson rejoins the Tigers in Chicago on the 20th.
  11. Hens fall 3-1 but the 1 was a Torkbomb on a 1st pitch FB. Mize with the start. 3.1 IP, 0R 1H 1BB 3K 50 pitches. Best FBs ~95mph
  12. I'm not a person that pines for the good old days. But this is the one aspect that is really depressing to me. It really should be embarrassing for anyone to support this scumbag. And it is such a measure of the increasing acceptance of incivility on our society that there are media servers that will even put this out. Of course if Trump is Exhibit 1 with the media, Elon is 1A with the medium.
  13. I assume Seattle's BP must be in bad shape for Servais to leave Kirby out there to get hammered.
  14. keep the virgins locked away if the rice crop is failing.....
  15. That's an interesting question. Not sure DeSantis going AWOL would move Sunshine State Trumpers or not. At this point Trump may be the more popular of the two in-state.
  16. let them burn as much public opinion capital as possible before the convention, so if the CPD does boot them to the curb no-one will care.
  17. fireable offense. Ilitch claimed he was bringing in a someone to build a winner, when all we're getting is a pretty face in a polo with another con.
  18. This morning's July PPI release 0.1%; 2.2% year over year. "Core" PPI 0.3/3.3%
  19. I don't really care if they cut him as long as they find someone to play in front of him. If that's a guy that comes up from the system fine, but if that guy isn't there you pay the $$ and sign or trade for someone. SS is too important to leave as a hole in your lineup. To amend my previous take - cutting him is actually another matter. I would say cutting him or not comes down to whether he's going to be a malcontent if he doesn't start. If so, then you let him go. if he'll play out his deal as backup 2b/ss and late inning defensive replacement, then fine.
  20. Statcast currently has Colt at +1 runs above average and the kid is turning the DP as well as anyone. Colt at 2B is not going to be pressing problem for the Tigers. If Jung doesn't cut it at 2b that will present a dilemma though.
  21. Bush Jr and Trump do share that they are/were both empty vessels intellectually. All they had was ambition, and they let the people around them use them as conduits for beliefs/programs they really didn't care about, understand, or have their own vision about. For Trumps it's all purely transactions for the votes, With Bush Jr he was buying credibility for being the serious person he never was. So Bush became the creature of the neo-cons in FP and the large number of legal wackos he put in at DOJ. Trump by racists, white nationalists and anti-abortion evangelicals. Now Trump has reached new levels of transparency with his admission of his policy being bought by Musk. I think DJT thinks he's somehow going to get hip or cool points for jumping into bed with Elon, but advertising that he is proud to be bought by campaign contributions (oil industry also) probably isn't going to be a good look with any independents.
  22. I think it’s more like Carlos is the resident malcontent now, nothing any team does suits him.
  23. FWIW, I just saw a story about Tork - I think in the Freep. Coach says he is +2 runs on defense in his time at Toledo so far. found it... https://www.freep.com/story/sports/columnists/carlos-monarrez/2024/08/09/detroit-tigers-should-call-up-spencer-torkelson-triple-a-toledo/74720785007/ (While I generally don't consider Carlos as knowing anything about Det baseball, I assume he can get a quote right.)
  24. If they don't bite the bullet and cut Javy loose at the end of this season after 3 yrs of futility, any confidence I have left in this management will be gone. if you can't cut bait when you have to, you don't have enough will to win to ever get out of mediocrity. There will always be something that didn't work out, some player that disappoints, someone who got too many years, someone with a career ending injury -- it is inevitable. Its just a normal part of the overhead for any pro sport franchise today. If you are going to let it freeze your org every time it happens, you are done before you ever even get out of the gate. Fielder, Zimmermann, Martinez, Cabrera, Baez. it happens, it will keep happening. It's not the exceptional condition, it's the normal condition. The Tigers have been using dead payroll as an excuse not to improve for too long.
  25. It's more than a little disappointing that management hasn't come up with at least a replacement level SS in 23 months on the job. It's not like no one knew it was a need.
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