they won 78 last season, they need to get to >90 to be competing for the playoffs. So call it 92 wins and a 14 game improvement. To accomplish half of that this season would require them to get to 85wins - which is conceivable, but not all that likely - they would have to play 600 the rest of the way. OTOH, if they were on track for the playoffs, Flaherty would still be here, so that would add 2-5 wins.
The the other view would be that if they do at least win any number greater than last year after losing Olsen, Mize, trading Flaherty and having Lange turn into a pumpkin, then the line-up has gotten stronger and they could be poised to make up a lot of ground in 25.
The irony is that while you can point to all the unexpected pitching loses, it's still runs scored where they are lagging by 50+ runs of being in the same class as the playoff teams, while despite the pitching losses, their runs allowed would be competitive in most divisions.